I just got home, and Dakinikat is still fighting tooth and nail with her Blackberry, so here’s thread to talk about the election results in your area. Please let us know what’s happening out there.
I found this piece in the Wall Street Journal–don’t know how reliable it is: Democratic Coalition Crumbles, Exit Polls Say.
Amid deep pessimism about the economy, the coalition of voters that gave Democrats control of Congress in 2006 appears to have fractured.
Preliminary exit polls showed that the party lost ground to Republicans in Tuesday’s midterm elections among women, middle-income workers, whites, seniors and independent voters.
Driving the shift: broad anxiety over the economy, as well as skepticism of big government and opposition to signature Democratic Party policy achievements, such as President Barack Obama’s economic-stimulus package and the health-care overhaul.
The Dems have lost women, as we were expecting:
In 2006, when Democrats took control of the House, the party held a 12-point advantage among women, exit polls that year showed. That lead now appears to have been all but erased.
The shift appears to be even larger among white women. The parties were evenly divided four years ago among white women, but on Tuesday a decisive majority of that group went for the GOP.
And the old folks have dumped the Dems also, according to the article. Read it and weep.
From David Dayen at FDL: Early Exits Look In Line With Polling. Dayen links to an AP story, I won’t use the link, but here’s an excerpt:
Women — who typically lean Democratic and are vital to the party’s fortunes — split their House votes, according to preliminary exit poll results. Men favored Republican candidates.
The tea party made a splash in its first election. About four out of 10 voters endorsed the movement. While a majority of voters said the tea party was not a factor in their House vote, those who did use their ballots to send a message about the tea party were slightly more likely to say they were signaling support of tea partiers than opposition to the movement.
In contrast, voters were more likely to say they were casting votes to express opposition to Obama than to support him. Six out of 10 independent voters disapproved of the job he’s doing.
Voters overall didn’t hold a favorable view of either the Republican or Democratic parties. Overwhelmingly, people at the polls were dissatisfied with the way the federal government is working, and a fourth said they’re angry about it.
I hear Rand Paul won already, and Dan Coates has won in Indiana (my mom will not be happy). What are you all hearing? I’ll add more links as I find them.
Comments
168 responses to “Live Blog: Many ?!*%!? Returns!”
Rubio declared winner in FL, Coons in DE.
The Battle of the Blackberry. (Glad your hard drive is coming tomorrow, dak.)
If I’m lucky the hard drive will be on the same FEDEX truck as the new BlackBerry. But, I’m not counting on it. Anyway, I’m going to spend the day with the front door wide open and I’m thinking, what trashy novel should I read?
Not a bodice ripper. “Not even on a slow day.” Remember? (I loved that answer.)
Hope both come on the same truck.
Door wide open – it must be warm in subtropical LA! NJ is “freezing” in the 40s-50s. At least that’s what New Jerseyans call it – my Indiana conditioned self thinks the weather is very comfortable!
From the WSJ article (thanks, BB):
Conclusions?
1) The “creative class” has Obama’s number by now.
2) Donna Brazile told blue-collar voters to take a hike. They did.
Grayson is losing with 20% in.
The dems dic pick up a republican seat. I wish they would call WV for Manchin.
I wonder what the hold up is for WV voting? You would think the late voters would be the shift workers and they’d be more likely to be union there.
Blumenthal wins.
Cool. McMahon was a very strange candidate. It’s nice to see that personal money alone isn’t enough sometimes.
Oh man, check this out. They will live to regret Stupak! (From AP story)
They got black people and young people, otherwise they struck out.
Senate exit polls, via Dayen.
CNN is showing Deval Patrick out ahead right now but they didn’t call it.
I think he’ll win. I couldn’t bring myself to vote for him. I voted Green
Even big dawg couldn’t save lincoln.
Ted Strickland is leading. Manchin is winning in everything,but no one is calling it.
Oh, man, go to MSNBC and look for Nancy Pelosi’s picture on the scrolling picturewire. I’ve never seen such a fake smile in my life. Watching her squirm is worth the price of admission.
No, I don’t want the Republicans in power, but I don’t want the Democrats in power either.
It would be interesting to see everything split right down the middle.
Wow, that is a very interesting idea. Talk about hung parliament! The wheeling and dealing would be just up Clinton’s alley. I doubt Obama has the intestinal fortitude for it.
It looks like Giannoulias might be losing in IL.
IL is going to be a pivotal state to watch. Two years ago, other than yours truly, the entire state went apeshit crazy for Obama, giving him the kind of political victory he didn’t achieve anywhere else. Since then, the state has officially had its debt downgraded to junk status, a Dem governor has been impeached (with no dissenting legislative votes), and jobs have evaporated. The key race will be for governor, IMO, not for senate. Giannoulias was never a quality candidate, and if Kirk gets in, he won’t win by much, because he’s a serial liar and everyone knows it. But if Brady beats out Quinn for governor, and if a couple of key congressional races go for the Repub candidates, Obama may as well do whatever he wants to do in the next two years, because if you’re an Illinois (carpetbagging) native and you lose your home state, you’re toast for a second term.
Yep, I have to agree with that.
grayslady, thanks for that insightful post on Ill politics and Obama’s fate in that regard.
In some Dem circles Madigan’s name comes up time and again as someone who has great potential for a future run as POTUS.
What are your thoughts about Madigan?
The IL Dems tried desperately to get Lisa Madigan, our state AG to run for Obama’s old senate seat. She told them that she really liked the job she had, she thought she was doing a good job as AG (she is–she’s usually ahead of the curve on issues rather than waiting for trouble to show up), and she has a young family with whom she wants to spend time. I’m certain she’ll win her re-election bid today in a landslide.
As for the future, I think she could easily run for governor and still meet her personal requirements for family availability. Then, after a couple of terms, yes, she could absolutely be ready for the WH.
Thanks for that info about Madigan. I’ve been hearing good things abut her for a while now. It’s good to have what I’ve heard confirmed by someone from Illinois.
Good to hear she will win in a landslide.
“toast for a second term” I can only, fervently, hope so.
AP has Giannoulias up by 60.1 to 35.5 with 21% reporting. Wonder if they are slow and that has changed?
Maybe that’s just Chicago?
Must be, the percentages are changing now. He’s at about 58 to 38 with 28% reporting at this moment.
At least Manchin is ahead in WV.
Politico is showing Mikulski the projected winner in MD and Ayotte the projected winner in NH. Too bad about Hodes in NH–he was one of the good guys.
Yeah, I liked Hodes.
Manchin finally wins. A positive for dems.
That’s a relief.
Grayson just went down.
Wow! Frankly, I couldn’t stand him even if I agreed with him on policy. He’s a fighter but I saw him as a huge self-promoting jackass who just loved hamming it up for the camera’s and not as a very serious policy wonk. If any Dem deserved to lose his seat, he was it, for me anyways.
Sure is.
Maybe this means Russ is safe?
I just heard that Wisconsin was too close to call. I really hope Russ survives. I can’t understand why he is in trouble because if anyone deserves the label “Maverick” it’s him. He’s cast some votes that made my head spin because he seemed to inherit the Liberal mantle from Wellstone. Russ does march to his own drummer. He certainly doesn’t deserve to lose tonight and I will never understand if he does lose why Wisconsin didn’t return him to D.C. and with such a dud of an opponent. This is where the TP dominance in the current political climate is dangerous because if the voting public rejects someone like the Maverick Feingold, it’s created a Russian Roulette toxic atmosphere in it’s randomness to get rid of all of ‘the bums’ as if it’s a truism that all incumbent’s are indeed “bums”. If Russ does lose, how many would have predicted that outcome? No one I know. This is chaos theory in it’s purest form where things wind up wildly different from where they started out and no one could have predicted that outcome.
Lawrence O’Donnell is having a conniption fit on MSNBO.
Morgan Griffith is projected the winner over Rick Boucher in the 9th district in VA. That’s pretty huge considering Boucher has held that seat in Congress since 1983.
In senate races, Politico says races have now been called for Burr in NC and Coburn in OK.
Here’s some good news. Lexington, KY has elected an openly gay mayor.
http://www.gaypolitics.com/2010/11/02/breaking-lexington-kentucky-elects-openly-gay-mayor/
Nice, go Lexington!
Second!
I hope it good for Russ. Manchin winning should stop that guy who apologized to BP from taking over the energy committee.
Alan Grayson is gone.
Woohoo! Gillibrand wins!
Yahoo!
Gillibrand wins in NY according to CNN.
Gillibrand wins!
She’s a terrific leader. Like Hillary, she’s a great inspiration and role model for my 7 year old and all little girls. I couldn’t be happier.
Strickland and Sestak are still leading. I hope they can hold on.
Feingold is behind by a couple of points, but it’s very close, via CNN.
Maybe Russ will win and he’ll be true to himself. I’m hoping some of these folks with close calls will wake up!
I sure hope so.
It always seems they go the other way though, doesn’t it? They have a close call because they ran to the right, or to the center while governing when they made left promises during the election. So what do they do? They go further right, as if the promises unfilled are not the problem! It’s weird.
Ok, the news in WA is pretty boring, because nothing is coming out yet. Polls close in a couple hours. However, the headliner on Komo news is that last minute voting is overwhelming the few polling stations in King County.
Since we vote by mail (in fact, my partner is dropping ours off just now), the polling places are only open for those who can’t or won’t or forgot. So there’s only three in King County. Still, lines out the door.
Edited to add: Another story says a strong turnout is projected. Strange for an off-year election. I suspect it’s because of all the initiatives. I do know the GOTV efforts, by both parties, have been huge, and annoying, this year. Even more than during the Presidential election year.
Voting was heavy in MA according to what I heard on NPR this afternoon.
As predicted, every one I voted for with the exception of the neck and neck dems in the judge’s race, lost.
Oh, well.
CNN says the GOP will take over the House. Duh!
Barney Frank is leading by quite a bit right now, but only 36% reporting.
GOP will take at least 50 seats in House. At least the Senate will probably still be barely Dem controlled.
Hello Agent Orange, Speak of duh House
Vitter and Barney win.
I will never get the Vitter win. What has he done for LA to deserve a win? Glad to hear that Barney won especially given the horrid person running against him.
I honestly think it ends up being name recognition. How many bring their voters’ handbook to the polling? How many pay attention beyond annoyance? I don’t know, it’s so depressing.
This is why I did not want to let any Tea Party types win, even to teach a lesson. Once they are in there, and their names are said on the news, even negatively, and they have funding.. we’ll never get rid of them.
The way I heard Clancy Dubois explain it at Rising Tide is that no one wants him near their daughters but he votes the right way for the out staters. I don’t vote for sleazy no matter what the party affiliation.
I’m sure Ed Markey will win in my district, but it looks like his opponent is getting a lot of votes. Nikki Tsongas is leading in Lowell, but not by that much. I think Barney Frank is safe–I hope.
Rick Perry wins. Sestak leading by 100,000 votes(53%).
Go Sestak!!!
If Sestak wins after Lincoln lost, how does that make Obama look?
I think the lines are drawn already. Bots will insist Obama is superior victim no matter what happens, and if that frame won’t fit they’ll just pretend none of it happened.
As for Blanche, she really didn’t have a chance, pivoting left then pivoting right then trying to balance in the center.
Come on Sestak!
Yea! If there is one Dem whose race has been close and whom I really want to win tonight it’s Joe. He’s the real thing. I love how he defied Obama and his cronies and beat the loathsome prune face misogynist (and I don’t use that label easily) Specter.
Does anyone know if Philly has reported it’s numbers yet? I heard he needs to get at least 350,000 votes in Phily to take it from Toomey.
Blumenthal in Connecticut, Gillibrand in New York.
Yay!
Cuomo will be Gov. of NY.
Can’t say I like Cuomo but the alternative was flatly unacceptable. So, lower case yay. 😉
Without a doubt. Agreed.
Joe “you lie” wilson is not doing good.
lol
Giannoulias leading Kirk 51-44, 48% reporting.
Feingold 41, Johnson 58, 10% reporting. I hope that narrows up, I’m worried it won’t.
Bummer.
Deval Patrick wins.
With all precincts now reporting, but without counting early voting, mail-in ballots, and provisional ballots, Melissa Bean has just lost IL-08 to TP Joe Walsh: 41,258 for Walsh (48.83%), 40,497 for Bean (47.93%), and 2736 (3.24%) for Scheurer, the Green candidate. This is HUGE! This was one of the key races I was watching inre by comment above about support for Obama. Normally, the Green or Libertarian candidates wouldn’t pick up more than 1% of the vote, and those extra votes would typically go to the Dem in whatever race. This year, however, in my county, I’m seeing Greens receiving a solid 3% or above in all their races. Change is beginning.
Senator Jim Demint is trying to put down the idea of a tea party caucus. It seems like the same old guys are on CNN trying to push the two party duopoly.
Wolfie seemed shocked when Demint said he didn’t want to be President.
“This year, however, in my county, I’m seeing Greens receiving a solid 3% or above in all their races. Change is beginning.”
Wonderful news! I wonder if I can start to believe we might have options other than “the lesser evil” in 2012.
Wouldn’t that be nice?
Oops again. Still waiting for McHenry and Cook county votes. Bean could still pull this out.
Giannoulias’ lead is narrowed now. 50 to 45, with 53% reporting.
NYT has it as 49-45.5
http://elections.nytimes.com/2010/results/senate
The polls just closed in Nevada. Reid and Angle neck and neck.
This one will be really interesting.
Sestak by +4 with 70% in. Kuninich won.
Update-joe”you lie” wilson is back in the lead.
Sestak leading by 3 points with 69% reporting.
In other Illinois news, with all precincts reporting, but without counting early voting, mail-in ballots, and provisional ballots, it appears that the third time is a charm for Democrat Dan Seals (he has run in two other congressional races) who defeated his Republican opponent by 35,338 votes (53.47%) to 30,757 votes (46.53%)–not close enough for a recount–to win Mark Kirk’s former seat. Seals doesn’t even live in the district! Seals has modified his platform this time around, becoming more conservative on some issues to please district voters, but what’s interesting is that Seals is a light-skinned, tall, slender black man who won in a district comprised of 1/2 Jewish intellectuals and 1/2 wealthy Lake Forest WASPs. Seals comes from a corporate financial background (he is *not* an attorney, for a change). I met him a couple of years ago and he was a decent, down-to-earth guy. Good for him!
Oops! May have spoken too soon. Still waiting to see Cook County numbers, since IL-10 is one of those districts to cross county borders. Will keep my fingers crossed.
Kirk is really gaining on Giannoulias.
Yes he is, 46 to 48 now, with 63% reporting. Very close.
Kirk just passed Giannoulias. 47.6 to 47, with 78% reporting. Nail biter.
Hickenlooper wins and beats tancredo!
PA race will come down to the wire.
Sestak still ahead. Pheww. But yea, down to the wire.
tight! Looks like it depends on Nutter`s Coattails.
Call me names, but I really enjoyed watching Geraldine Ferraro and Sarah Palin talking together on Fox News just now. Our only two women VP candidates. And they both were gracious. Kinda cool.
That’s nice to hear.
Charlie Rangel wins easily. LOL Take that Nancy P.!
Nikki Haley won SC Gov. Don’t agree with anything she stands for. But, it’s good to see an Indian-American woman win as Chief Executive of a State and South Carolina no less. Congrats to her.
And, shit, Russ Feingold is toast.
I’m a huge supporter of campaign finance reform because nothin people are bitchin about will change substantively in our politics overall, until this changes. And, with Feingold out of the picture, I don’t see anyone picking up that mantle. This is a real loss and tragedy and he’s an unfair victim of teh TP furvor.
Feingold is losing badly so far.
Giannoulias only 1 point ahead now.
Check that, G leads by .3% now!
Jeeze, Toomey and Sestak tied. We may not know some of these results tonight.
I wonder how many are going to come down to hand counts? Sure seems like PA and IL could be that way, in the Senate races.
Cao loses and so does murphy from PA who was leader to overturn DADT.
The race in WI has been called for Johnson. Feingold is out. What can you say?
Bummer in the summer.
What’s going on in Nevada? The NYT has no data yet.
No data from AP yet either. Oregon is still blue. WA, first 1% reporting and Rossi is way ahead, at 67% or something. But that’ll be from the red counties to the east. Just closed the polling places here in the west.
Mass. is still blue too, thank goodness!
I’m so relieved about the 10th, I take back every mean thing I ever said about the South Shore. 😉 The Cape, OTOH, is still on notice. jk
I’m still a little bitter about the fact that Martha had to be punished and pay the price to wash away everyone else’s sins so their careers could continue to prosper, but what else is new. Same old eternal story.
I’m so glad to read you and I so hope that you think that this is a blog that is for you.
Yes, I was bitter about that for a long time. It put me off TC for a while too.
Same old story of Repubs/Libertarians/populist right-wing wannabe revolutionaries taking over the blog prior to any election.
Hey, Laurie! Great to see you, been awhile.
I meant same old eternal story of MA barely being able to elect a female dogcatcher. 🙂 I’m happy with the results, but at the same time, I can’t help but be irritated that with all the supposed anger over the health care bill, the only person affected was the Hillary supporter. Good thing all that anger worked itself out on her before reaching any other candidate in the state. It’s a little more complicated than that, yes–but still mildly annoying. 😉
Barely being able to elect a female dogcatcher?????
And they wonder why the US is going to the dogs…..
And lots and lots of ballots to count just getting mailed today. Sit back and wager. Since ’04 I’ve gotten used to having governor and then senate and other seats run out for days, even weeks, with tiny margins. Both sides (Murray & Rossi) are lawyered up for recount challenges.
Oh, no, Murphy lost? He was another one of the good guys and another great leader on DADT and all veteran’s issues.
Cao was the only one who voted for Health Ins Bill and I thought he said he did it because it was what his constituents wanted even though he went against his party which was, I thought, brave of him, whatever one thinks of that bill. And, now they voted him out? *headdesk*
I’m just hoping that Sestak wins and I’m hoping that the Philly vote was huge.
Sestak is losing by about a point right now, but I’ll bet the Philly votes still have to come in. Keep your fingers crossed!
Giannoulias is dropping down, down, down.
Yea, unless there’s some big city still to count, I think he’s a goner.
Just returned from dinner with friends, turned on the tv, and discovered that Michele Bachmann has won reelection while Russ Feingold just got his butt handed to him.
Just another reason to suggest why there may not be a god after all. Two more years of listening to that dingbat slinging her idiocy all over the place while Russ is beaten down by a guy who spent a fortune to gain that seat.
Disheartening.
Very disheartening. I wonder if perhaps I’m just too liberal for this country? Maybe I should move. It’s tempting, I did it once before. But family and the roots I’ve placed hold me here.
On the other hand, moving is probably the coward’s way out. I don’t know, I just don’t know.
I’m not leaving. I’m going down with the ship if necessary.
And that’s the spirit I should adopt. Maybe by fighting we can help bring out a new FDR, New Deal, style revolution.
Dunno, sounds sensible to me after the way this country’s been run.
yup. It is a travesty.
They had a power outage in Nevada (supposedly). They’re counting now.
Reid ahead by 10 points with 11% reporting.
Oooooh, Chris Matthews sounds like he’s on crystal meth. Says Obama f**ked up bad (not in those words).
Heh. I won’t say he’s coming to his senses. He hasn’t any.
Murray in WA is 8% down with 33% reporting. I don’t think that’s too bad, because the big cities haven’t spoken yet. However, it does mean a squeaker and a nail biter.
Pheww, 56% reporting, she’s now ahead by 3%. Now, to keep the lead…
Murray 50.6, Rossi 49.4, 59% reporting. Yeesh.
Well, Boehner is talking about “values that made America, America” and now he is crying….I wonder what Pelosi’s expression is now. I would love to see it!
I hope that crying did not hurt the make up. Expect to see more of it since Boehner has been known to do a lot of it on the Floor when things don’t go his way.
He learned this from the Glenn Beck School of Broadcasting. Or vice versa.
Is he crying orange tears?
Gag. Just gag.
Nancy is mad,HA HA HA. I made the mistake of going to DU and someone posted that pelosi should have cried. I bet she is crying now.
I bet that she is spitting mad….being the highest ranking Italian politician, my Sicilian cousins and family always rooted for her. I can just imagine the forced smile on her now.
wonder if she really will resign?
Illinois update:
1) With 94% of the precincts reporting, Gov. Quinn is holding on to a 1/2% lead over his Repub challenger, while Kirk has opened up a 2% advantage over Giannoulias.
2) With 97% of the precincts reporting, Joe Walsh has less than a 100 vote lead over Dem. incumbent Melissa Bean in IL-08. The Green is maintaining 3% of the vote throughout the district.
3) With 93% of the precincts reporting, Dan Seals is behind his Repub opponent by 4000 votes. I don’t think there’s enough room for Dan to move ahead at this point.
4) Bill Foster, the incumbent blue dog in IL-14–hand picked by Rahm Emmanuel in the last election cycle to crowd out the true progressive who was running–lost to his Repub opponent by 51% to 45%.
Wow, those IL-14 results really say something about the fall of Rahm.
Yeah, Rahm still hasn’t figured out that voters will pick a real Repub over a faux Repub every time (assuming they want a Repub in the first place).
PA senate race has been called for Toomey. Another real Dem bites the dust.
Sigh. Does Sestak still hold his House seat though?
Nope.
Gah. That really sucks.
Good night everyone. See you in the morning.
sweet dreams!
Reid beats crazy!
yup.
WA state: Murray 50.59 %; Rossi 49.41 %
About 70% of ballots counted.
Turnout in my county, the most populous in state, only 35%. Overall state turnout about 40%.
Damn, the Soak the Rich tax measure is losing. Idjits. At least the out-sourcing of workers’ compensation insurance looks like it’s going down.
That senate race is a squeaker. We had some tax things too. Most passed.
Not idiots. After 2 years, the state Congress could have expanded that income tax to the rest of us with a simple majority (rather than the 2/3 majority they’d need without the passed initiative). And do you really think they wouldn’t? I don’t.
That was my thinking too, Teresa. The law needed to be better written. Also, I worked out the numbers. It *might* have saved me 200$.
However, the law said that the local entities could raise their taxes to take up that 200$.
I totally agree with tax the rich. I want better guarantees it doesn’t morph into a tax the middle class two ways kind of deal.
I wonder why Komo was saying that last minute voting was overwhelming the polling stations. Heh. Who knows.
Hang in there Patty.
Busy night!
That’s odd. Last night, there were a number of later posts here, including one after 3 a.m., and now they are gone.
*****A
are you sure it was this thread?
I checked the ones before and after…
hmmm, maybe they nested somewhere … I didn’t delete anything
Yes, there are a couple up above.