This American Life
Posted: June 5, 2009 Filed under: just because, president teleprompter jesus, Surreality | Tags: apologists for Obama, broken campaign promises and Obama, David Sirota, presidential polls, young conservatives 2 CommentsMy thoughts appear to be a bit disjointed today so I thought I’d paste together some links I found over morning coffee and let you all hash them over.
First, from the annals of No kidding … yes, you are a young con (artist), I offer up this you tube of some newbie conservative boys. They call themselves the ‘young cons’ and they prove, once again, that young privileged white boys can’t rap. Hide your young!
Next up, is the answer to my question why aren’t we hearing anything about POTUS and his Poll numbers anymore? Well, according to Rasmussen: “Overall, 54% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the President’s performance so far. Forty-six percent (46%) disapprove.”
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows that 34% of the nation’s voters now Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as President. Thirty-four percent (34%) Strongly Disapprove giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of 0. That’s the highest level of strong disapproval and the lowest overall rating yet recorded (see trends).
We continue also to see an erosion of support from left blogistan as David Sirota asks: Whither the sacred campaign promise? Is it just possible that one of these guys will eventually say that some of us were right one day?
But then behavior by President Obama suggests a more systemic assault on the campaign promise is under way.
It started in December, when he was asked why he was making Hillary Rodham Clinton his chief diplomat after criticizing her qualifications and promising Democratic primary voters that his views on international relations were different than hers. He responded by telling the questioner “you’re having fun” trying “to stir up whatever quotes were generated during the course of the campaign.” The implicit assertion was that anyone expecting him to answer for campaign statements must just be “having fun” – and certainly can’t be serious.
A few months later, in reversing a 5-year-old commitment to support ending the Cuban embargo, Obama offered no rationale for the U-turn other than saying he was “running for Senate” at a time that “seems just eons ago” – again, as if everyone should know that previous campaign promises mean nothing.
At least that was a response. After the New York Times recently reported that “the administration has no present plans to reopen negotiations on NAFTA” as “Obama vowed to do during his campaign,” there was no explanation offered whatsoever. We were left to recall Obama previously telling Fortune magazine that his NAFTA promises were too “overheated and amplified” to be taken literally.
It’s true that politicians have always broken promises, but rarely so proudly and with such impunity.
I’m just going to leave the last word to Stevie Wonder:
People keep on learnin’
Soldiers keep on warrin’
World keep on turnin’
Cause it won’t be too longPowers keep on lyin’
While your people keep on dyin’
World keep on turnin’
Cause it won’t be too longI’m so darn glad he let me try it again
Cause my last time on earth I lived a whole world of sin
I’m so glad that I know more than I knew then
Gonna keep on tryin’
Till I reach the highest ground
Charge! (Or Not)
Posted: June 4, 2009 Filed under: Equity Markets, Global Financial Crisis, Team Obama, U.S. Economy | Tags: Bernanke Testimony, Budget Deficit, Deficit Spending, fiscal policy, inflation Comments Off on Charge! (Or Not)Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke testified before congress this week and highlighted one of the big future worries facing the economy. What will be the impact of all this government borrowing on the near and long term economic look and the financial markets? Brad Setser put the deficit explosion into perspective in his blog at the Council of Foreign Relations on June 2.
The story is clear. Government borrowing has increased dramatically. It topped 15% of GDP in the last two quarters of 2008. In 2007 and early 2008 it was more like 3% of GDP. But private borrowing has fallen equally sharply. Total borrowing by households and firms fell from over 15% of GDP in late 2007 to a negative 1% of GDP in q4 2008.
…
Both charts highlight the risk that worries me the most. In both the early 1980s and the first part of this decade, both the private sector and the government were large borrowers. And in both cases, borrowing rose faster than domestic savings, so the gap was filled by borrowing from the rest of the world. The trade and current account deficit rose. In the early 1980s, the US attracted inflows by offering high yields on its bonds. More recently, it did so by borrowing heavily from Asian central banks, together with the governments of the oil-exporting countries. But now yields are low (even after the recent rise in the yield on the ten year Treasury bond), and need to be low to support a still weak US economy. And China (and others) are visibly uncomfortable with their dollar exposure; banking on their continued willingness to finance a large external deficit seems like a stretch.
The challenge this time around consequently will be to bring down the government’s borrowing as private borrowing resumes.
What’s that, Lassie? Little Timmy fell down the well?
Posted: June 2, 2009 Filed under: A My Pet Goat Moment, Diplomacy Nightmares, Equity Markets, Global Financial Crisis, Team Obama, The Media SUCKS, U.S. Economy Comments Off on What’s that, Lassie? Little Timmy fell down the well?
I’m not sure what Secretary Tim Geithner is smoking these days, but I’m sure there’s a huge market for it. Maybe we could tax it then pay off the national debt. The news of the Treasury Secretary’s trip to China is just developing enough of a surreal feel that I felt like Photoshopping a Buddhist begging bowl on to Beavis and entitling it Timmy Does China. However, I’m not that skilled at photo shop and I’m still trying to finish this paper on currency regimes so I don’t have the time to be that creatively unpaid. Let’s just label this a big enough reality disconnect to either be drug induced or a product of Hollywood. Well, not exactly Hollywood, but CNBC, is that close? This blurb is from a thread today at Market Watch.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said Tuesday that China has confidence in the U.S. economy, even as official Chinese editorials and news reports berated Washington for selling a “devalued dollar.”
Geithner, who was wrapping up a two-day visit to China, said officials there shared his positive economic outlook for the U.S. and understood the Obama administration’s need to run higher deficits for a temporary period.
“They’ve got a pretty good feel for what we are trying to do and are very supportive,” he said in an interview with CNBC.
I’m still wondering if the folks in charge of protocal and explaining how other cultures work are understaffed at the White House. Not since POTUS gave HRH an ipod with his speeches on it has there been such a misread of cultural differences. Somebody needs to explain to the Treasury Secretary that criticizing your future hosts (who are well known to be hyperconcerned for their national image) for currency manipulation in front of a world wide audience isn’t going to really get them to open up to you. Giethner’s confirmation hearing was labelled by the WSJ to be a China Bash.
Geithner’s visit to Beijing, his first since assuming the helm of the U.S. Treasury, included scheduled meetings with Chinese President Hu Jintao, Premier Wen Jiabao, and the nation’s top commerce, finance and banking officials.
In the CNBC interview, Geithner downplayed his earlier criticism of Beijing, in which he accused the Chinese government of keeping the yuan at an unreasonably low level against the U.S. dollar in order to boost China’s exports.
He did say, however, that China recognizes the need for a more flexible exchange-rate system, saying such a move “will help them … to use monetary policy to address future growth and inflation challenges.”
Geithner’s comments contrasted with the downbeat look at the U.S. economy reported in China’s state-run media.
I’m actually beginning to wonder if Geithner knows exactly what ‘state-run media’ implies here. Maybe a refresher from the State Department would have helped him on that too.
Banking on the Backroom Deal
Posted: June 1, 2009 Filed under: Bailout Blues, Equity Markets, Global Financial Crisis, Team Obama, U.S. Economy | Tags: bad banks, banking regulation, Capital requriements, Credit Default swaps, Hart, Too big to Fail, Zingales Comments Off on Banking on the Backroom DealWhile, GM’s bankruptcy and Chrysler’s emergence from bankruptcy grab front page headlines, yesterday’s banks with
issues are positioning themselves at the table to discuss future financial regulation. This comes as some of the premier researchers in financial economics look for systemic solutions. As you know, I’m a huge advocate for finding new regulations that promote transparency of process and recognize the importance of fiduciary responsibility when the financial industry takes on risk. Harvard’s Oliver Hart and University of Chicago’s Luigi Zingales, both NBER researchers, have just produced A New Capital Regulation For Large Financial Institutions. I want to review some of their findings and suggestions in conjunction with two more mundane articles.
The first of these articles is an astounding piece on Alternet that finds information suggesting Larry Summers has been taking kickbacks from big troubled banks. Another article is in today’s NY Times that shows how the banks have been spending a good year–even as they took TARP funds and cheap money from them FED–girding for a fight on forthcoming regulations.
I would think that the big lesson from the last few years is this is not time to go back to business as usual. However, the mindset of those making major decisions in the White House (Treasury Secretary Geithner and CEA head Summers) is this is just a glitch and there’s no chance anything like this could happen again. In other words, we don’t need to look for systemic problems, we just need to send the patients home with some aspirin and they can call back in the morning. This aspirin prescription has been particularly expensive. It is either utterly naive or completely disingenuous to think that pouring money into financial institutions and waiting this out is going to prevent any future occurrence of financial meltdowns. We need to be prepared to offset what may be an elaborate hoax to convince that nothing really needs to change systematically and a major congressional influence- and administration influence- buying spree by the big banks. Even as we see Dow de-list Citibank, we see evidence that Citibank possibly manipulated its stress tests results through Summers.
If the Alternet article is correct, Summers should be in trouble and the trustworthiness of the large institutions should be questioned by a congressional committee. This sure looks like pay-to-play to me. (HT to Dr. BB for the link.) The post by Mark Ames is a must read.
Last month, a little-known company where Summers served on the board of directors received a $42 million investment from a group of investors, including three banks that Summers, Obama’s effective “economy czar,” has been doling out billions in bailout money to: Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and Morgan Stanley. The banks invested into the small startup company, Revolution Money, right at the time when Summers was administering the “stress test” to these same banks.
A month after they invested in Summers’ former company, all three banks came out of the stress test much better than anyone expected — thanks to the fact that the banks themselves were allowed to help decide how bad their problems were (Citigroup “negotiated” down its financial hole from $35 billion to $5.5 billion.)
The fact that the banks invested in the company just a few months after Summers resigned suggests the appearance of corruption, because it suggests to other firms that if you hire Larry Summers onto your board, large banks will want to invest as a favor to a politically-connected director.
Last month, it was revealed that Summers, whom President Obama appointed to essentially run the economy from his perch in the National Economic Council, earned nearly $8 million in 2008 from Wall Street banks, some of which, like Goldman Sachs and Citigroup, were now receiving tens of billions of taxpayer funds from the same Larry Summers. It turns out now that those two banks have continued paying into Summers-related businesses.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows that 34% of the nation’s voters now Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as President. Thirty-four percent (34%) Strongly Disapprove giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of 0. That’s the highest level of strong disapproval and the lowest overall rating yet recorded (see trends).



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