Open Thread and Live Blog: Massachusetts Senate Debate #3
Posted: October 10, 2012 Filed under: 2012 elections, U.S. Economy, U.S. Politics | Tags: Elizabeth Warren, Massachusetts Senate debate 3, Scott Brown 12 CommentsElizabeth Warren meets Scott Brown again tonight at 7PMat the Springfield, MA Symphony Hall.
Brown and Warren are engaged in what is already the most expensive Senate race in the history of the commonwealth, and before it’s finished will be the most expensive Senate contest in U.S. history.
At the two previous debates, the candidates have dueled over tax policy, immigration reform, Warren’s Native American ancestry and Brown’s votes on bills relating to women’s rights. In Springfield, moderator Jim Madigan of WGBY will be asking the candidates a variety of questions aimed at getting them to not only offer specifics on their ideas, but also to reveal where they stand on issues which may not be the everyday talking points.
The event, which will take place at 7 p.m. inside the city’s historic Symphony Hall, will be streamed live on MassLive.com, broadcast locally on WSHM CBS-3, ABC-40/FOX-6 and WGBY and available outside the Springfield market on NECN and C-Span and covered by a variety of news outlets from across the country.
WBUR (NPR) in Boston will also be covering the debate.
Tufts University political science professor Jeff Berry described the race in an interview Wednesday on WBUR’s Morning Edition as “dead even.”
“What we’re down to is a race that’s gonna be about turnout,” Berry said. “Both Brown and Warren tonight are gonna want to motivate their voters.”
To draw support, Berry thinks Brown will avoid the issue of Warren’s Native American heritage — according to Berry, pushing the issue makes Brown “look like a bully” — though that doesn’t mean he’ll back off her past entirely.
“[Brown] scored points on [Warren’s] work for insurance companies, making her look like just another lawyer or politician who’s willing to work for either side, whoever’s willing to pay her,” Berry said.
Berry believes Warren will counter by bringing the Senate election to a level of national importance, noting that this seat may decide which party controls the Senate. As a result, Berry predicts Warren will attack Brown’s claims of bipartisanship…..
Jobs will likely be a big ticket item at the debate, and Berry believes Warren will stick to supporting small business whereas Brown will oppose the Obama administration’s tax increases.
David at Blue Mass Group asks: Is Obama’s debate debacle trickling down into MA-Sen?
…yet another poll, conducted by YouGov for UMass-Amherst, shows Warren with a narrow 48-46 lead among likely voters. YouGov uses a non-traditional methodology, but Nate Silver says they do OK. The poll was taken Oct 2-8, so almost entirely after Obama’s debacle in Denver. The moral seems to be this: we can expect the polling in this race to bounce around quite a bit over the next four weeks. So just keep winning the old-fashioned way. – promoted by david
*sigh*
US Senator Scott Brown has regained a lead over Democratic challenger Elizabeth Warren in a new WBUR-Mass Inc. poll, after a string of polls showed Warren with the lead…. The telephone poll of 502 likely voters, taken Oct. 5 through Oct. 7, showed Brown leading 47 percent to 43 percent, within the 4.4 percent margin of error. The lead drops to 3 percentage points — 48 percent to 45 percent — with the inclusion of respondents who say they have not fully made up their mind but are leaning to one candidate….
[T]his was the first poll taken after the Oct. 3 presidential debate between President Obama and Governor Mitt Romney. That debate has helped boost Romney’s campaign, which may be affecting races lower on the ballot.
Obama lead[s] Romney by 16 points on the newest WBUR poll. It’s a sizeable advantage, but down from the 28 point lead he held in the previous WBUR poll.
If you’re going to watch the debate, please share your reactions in the comments, or use this as an open thread.
Live Blog: Elizabeth Warren vs. Scott Brown, Massachusetts Senate Debate, Round 2
Posted: October 1, 2012 Filed under: 2012 elections, U.S. Politics | Tags: Dancin' Dave Gregory, Elizabeth Warren, live blog, Massachusetts Senate Debate 2, Mitt Romney, Scott Brown 81 CommentsGood Evening!! The second debate between Elizabeth Warren and Scott Brown will take place tonight from 7-8PM at the Tsongas Center at the University of Massachusetts Lowell. There will be a live audience of more than 5,000 people. Unfortunately, the debated will be moderated by Dancin’ Dave Gregory.
The debate will air live on C-span and will be live streamed at a number of sites, including C-Span and Mass Live.
Mass Live sees audience reaction as one of the five things to watch for in the debate. The first debate was held in a studio without a live audience. How will that affect the debaters? The audience will be told not to react, but they probably will anyway. The other four things to watch for (supposedly) are (commentary is mine):
(1) How will the candidates deal with the endless, boring Native American “issue”? Will Brown continue to claim he can psychically determine another person’s ethnic heritage? Will Warren find a way to smack him down for good? Maybe she should try raising her voice.
(2) “Brown’s perceived aggressiveness”: He has been criticized quite a bit for his boorish behavior in the first debate, but will he tone it down? I’m betting no, because he just can’t stand losing to a girl.
(3) Will Dancin’ Dave allow any actual issues to be addressed, like maybe foreign policy? I sure hope so, because I think it would be a hoot to see Brown try to talk about something complex and still make sense. And maybe he’ll tell us more about those meetings with kings and queens and how he talks to Hillary Clinton on the phone all the time.
(4) The last “issue” is Scott Brown’s trumped-up attacks on Warren for doing legal work for some corporations, including Travelers’ Insurance. Brown has demanded that Warren release the names of all the clients she has worked for. But Brown refuses to release his client list, because he’s a man and Warren is just some female who is inexplicably trying to take his Senate seat away.
I’ll add one more thing to watch for: Will Warren explicitly tie Brown to Mitt Romney and the Republican Party? In the last debate, she repeatedly said that she supports President Obama but she didn’t confront Brown on whom he is supporting. She needs to do that, repeatedly and explicitly.
The latest polls by The Boston Globe and Boston University’s NPR station WBUR both show Warren still ahead of Scott Brown by 43-38 and 46-44 respectively.
Just a couple of links on the Native American “controversy.” The Washington Post did a fact check last week in which they found Scott Brown guilty of two Pinocchios. Only two?
Brown said that Warren “checked the box claiming she was Native American” when she applied to Harvard and Penn, suggesting the Democratic candidate somehow gained an unfair advantage because of an iffy ethnic background. But there is no proof that she ever marked a form to tell the schools about her heritage, nor is there any public evidence that the universities knew about her lineage before hiring her.
The senator’s debate comments also suggest Warren actively applied for positions with Harvard and Penn, but the evidence suggests the schools recruited her because of her groundbreaking research and writings on bankruptcy. Harvard, in fact, did not give up on her after she first turned down a tenured position with the university.
Some might assume that Warren listed herself as a minority in the law school directories to attract offers from top schools, which would be a pro-active measure. The explanation that she was reaching out to other Native Americans — when she was merely listed as a “minority” — certainly appears suspicious, but there is no conclusive evidence that she used her status in the listing to land a job.
But Warren appears to have been well-qualified for the teaching positions and excelled once she was hired.
Gee, no kidding. I think the problem Brown is having is that Warren is far more intelligent, educated, and professionally accomplished than he is. But she’s a girl! So it doesn’t count.
Today the WaPo published an article on Why the Native American heritage fight isn’t hurting Elizabeth Warren. Because it’s idiotic? The article doesn’t really answer the question in the headline–just provides poll results that demonstrate that Massachusetts voters aren’t a moronic as Scott Brown.
A Boston Globe poll released Sunday showed Warren leading Sen. Scott Brown (R-Mass.) 43 percent to 38 percent. A deeper dive into the survey’s crosstabs reveals that most voters aren’t swayed by the tussle over Warren’s ancestry….
More than eight-in-ten likely voters (86 percent) have at least some familiarity with the Native American heritage story. Of those with at least some knowledge of it, about seven in ten (71 percent) said the story would have no impact on their vote for Warren, while 24 percent said it would make them less likely to vote for the Democratic nominee.
Among voters who are undecided about whether they support Brown or Warren – a crucial subset of the electorate — nearly three-in-four (74 percent) said the story would have no impact on their vote for Warren, while nearly one-in-five (19 percent) said it would make them less likely to vote for her.
It is that 19 percent of voters that Brown is playing for.
Boston Mayor Tom Menino has released a video ad supporting Elizabeth Warren. Menino isn’t much of a public speaker, but he controls a powerful political machine.
I hope at least some Sky Dancers will be watching the debate. I won’t be able to comment for the first half, but I’ll be watching on C-span and will join in for the second half. Please give your reactions in the comments if you’re watching! The results of this race will affect all of us, whether we live in Massachusetts or not.
Live Blog: Elizabeth Warren and Scott Brown in First MA Senate Debate
Posted: September 20, 2012 Filed under: 2012 elections, U.S. Economy, U.S. Politics | Tags: Elizabeth Warren, Massachusetts Senate debate, Scott Brown 100 CommentsThe first Massachusetts Senate debate is tonight at 7PM Eastern. You can watch it on C-Span or on-line at CBSboston. For anyone who is in the Boston area, Elizabeth will be holding a post-debate rally at Adams Park in Roslindale at 3:30 pm on Friday.
Are you ready to rumble? Scott Brown almost wasn’t.
As of 3:30 p.m. ET, Brown was still in Washington, held up by the prospect of late-night votes in the Senate on a continuing resolution to fund the government that needs to get passed before Congress goes into recess.
This afternoon, Brown said that he would need to stay in Washington and skip the debate if there turned out to be late-night votes.
That prompted Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., to declare that there would be no votes tonight. As he did so, Reid suggested Brown was trying to use the Senate as an excuse to get out of his debate.
“It’s obvious to me what’s going on,” Reid said. “I’ve been to a few of these rodeos. It is obvious there is a big stall taking place. One of the senators who don’t want to debate tonight won’t be in a debate. While he can’t use the Senate as an excuse, there will be no more votes today.”
Ha ha ha! Brown hates debating. You just know he was hoping to avoid tonight’s match-up with a much smarter and more experienced opponent.
Steve LeBlanc at The Boston Globe suggested what each candidate needs to do tonight.
Brown must continue reaching out to independent, Democratic and women voters — three key demographics for any Massachusetts Republican candidate. He also must portray himself as an independent thinker who is not beholden to either political party.
Warren must deepen the voting public’s sense of familiarity with her while also protecting and increasing her support among women and Democrats. The Harvard law professor also must counter the image that she is out of touch with average voters.
Two candidates not on the stage could also play a role in the debate — President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney.
Warren needs to tie herself closely to Obama, who remains popular in Massachusetts and leads Romney by double digits in recent state polls. Brown, on the other hand, has to show independence from Romney and other Republican leaders.
And of course Brown needs to pretend that he barely knows Mitt Romney. He has been trying to do that ever since the secret tapes became a front page story a couple of days ago. Warren needs to find ways to tie Brown to his former pal Mitt Romney and his sneering, dismissive attitudes toward working- and middle-class Americans.
At MassLive, Shira Schoenberg gathered more recommendations from a number of Bay State political experts. I also think this post at Bloomberg is quite helpful.
When Republican Scott Brown and Democrat Elizabeth Warren debate for the first time today, both candidates vying to represent Massachusetts in the U.S. Senate will hold advantages capable of tipping the race.
Brown’s upset victory in 2010 for the post held by the late Ted Kennedy for almost 47 years was fueled by his debate performances against Attorney General Martha Coakley, who was considered a shoo-in before Brown stole the spotlight with his one-liners and what the Boston Globe called “pointed attacks.”
Warren’s rise from academic scholar to Democratic star grew from her fight to create a federal consumer protection agency and her success at translating complex political ideology into succinct campaign themes.
Elizabeth Warren is an expert debater.
She was 16 and living in Oklahoma, where she was born and raised, when she graduated from high school and attended George Washington University on a full debate scholarship that paid for her room, board, tuition, books and some spending money.
But Brown is good at throwing out provocative one-liners. According to political consultant Michael Goldman, Brown needs to convince voters he has done a good enough job in the the past two years to earn a full six-year term in the Senate.
Warren needs to tie Brown to the Republican Party and its standard-bearer Mitt Romney, who is very unpopular in the state. She will also point out the times he has sided with Wall Street and oil companies rather than the people of Massachusetts.
In the past five days there have been five polls of this race, with Warren leading in four and Brown in one. Warren also got an important endorsement today from Boston Mayor Tom Menino.
I hope those of you who can watch will help me live blog. It should be an interesting night.










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