Too Much Optimistic = Damned Lies!

Are we beginning to see the omnipresent reification of the Obama hope/change theme recognized for what it is? All of the memes on superior judgment have been an abstract campaign mantra with no basis in reality. Who but a few among us have recognized this? Are we seeing the first signs of a satori from the all too real realm of the economy and Americans who are losing everything because they have no job? All I can say is it is about damned time and I’m praying that it isn’t too late to get fooled again.

Today’s Pit Boss (Jeanne Cummings) at Politico brings the perspective to inside the beltway where grasping reality has always been a Herculean task. The blog piece is called “Some economists warn Barack Obama’s economic predictions too optimistic.” This economist just calls their prediction lies, lies and more damn lies.

This time, however, the new forecasts — if they are anything like what many outside economists expect — could send a jolt through Capitol Hill, where even the administration’s current debt projections already are prompting deep concerns on political and substantive grounds.

Higher deficit figures also would arrive at a critical moment in the health care debate, as lawmakers are already struggling to find a way to pay for the president’s nearly $1 trillion reform package.

Alternately, if Obama clings to current optimistic forecasts for long-term growth, he risks accusations that he is basing his fiscal plans on fictitious assumptions — precisely the sort of charge he once leveled against the Bush administration.

White House officials rebuff such suggestions, saying the midyear correction is precisely intended to keep their economic program reality based.

But a series of POLITICO interviews in recent days with independent economists of varied political stripes found widespread disdain for Obama’s first round of assumptions, with some experts invoking such phrases as “rosy” and “fantasy.”

Obama’s current forecasts envision 3.2 percent growth next year, 4 percent growth in 2011, 4.6 percent growth in 2012 and 4.2 percent growth in 2013.

Let me continue with the translation of “experts invoking such phrases as “rosy” and “fantasy” and just call them lies, lies, and more damned lies! Clear enough? Following my theme yesterday, I offer what we economists call the stylized facts to offset the varnished untruths wafting through Big Brother’s media screed.

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