Open Thread and Live Blog: Massachusetts Senate Debate #3

Elizabeth Warren meets Scott Brown again tonight at 7PMat the Springfield, MA Symphony Hall.

Brown and Warren are engaged in what is already the most expensive Senate race in the history of the commonwealth, and before it’s finished will be the most expensive Senate contest in U.S. history.

At the two previous debates, the candidates have dueled over tax policy, immigration reform, Warren’s Native American ancestry and Brown’s votes on bills relating to women’s rights. In Springfield, moderator Jim Madigan of WGBY will be asking the candidates a variety of questions aimed at getting them to not only offer specifics on their ideas, but also to reveal where they stand on issues which may not be the everyday talking points.

The event, which will take place at 7 p.m. inside the city’s historic Symphony Hall, will be streamed live on MassLive.com, broadcast locally on WSHM CBS-3, ABC-40/FOX-6 and WGBY and available outside the Springfield market on NECN and C-Span and covered by a variety of news outlets from across the country.

WBUR (NPR) in Boston will also be covering the debate.

Tufts University political science professor Jeff Berry described the race in an interview Wednesday on WBUR’s Morning Edition as “dead even.”

“What we’re down to is a race that’s gonna be about turnout,” Berry said. “Both Brown and Warren tonight are gonna want to motivate their voters.”

To draw support, Berry thinks Brown will avoid the issue of Warren’s Native American heritage — according to Berry, pushing the issue makes Brown “look like a bully” — though that doesn’t mean he’ll back off her past entirely.

“[Brown] scored points on [Warren’s] work for insurance companies, making her look like just another lawyer or politician who’s willing to work for either side, whoever’s willing to pay her,” Berry said.

Berry believes Warren will counter by bringing the Senate election to a level of national importance, noting that this seat may decide which party controls the Senate. As a result, Berry predicts Warren will attack Brown’s claims of bipartisanship…..

Jobs will likely be a big ticket item at the debate, and Berry believes Warren will stick to supporting small business whereas Brown will oppose the Obama administration’s tax increases.

David at Blue Mass Group asks: Is Obama’s debate debacle trickling down into MA-Sen?

…yet another poll, conducted by YouGov for UMass-Amherst, shows Warren with a narrow 48-46 lead among likely voters. YouGov uses a non-traditional methodology, but Nate Silver says they do OK. The poll was taken Oct 2-8, so almost entirely after Obama’s debacle in Denver. The moral seems to be this: we can expect the polling in this race to bounce around quite a bit over the next four weeks. So just keep winning the old-fashioned way. – promoted by david

*sigh*

US Senator Scott Brown has regained a lead over Democratic challenger Elizabeth Warren in a new WBUR-Mass Inc. poll, after a string of polls showed Warren with the lead…. The telephone poll of 502 likely voters, taken Oct. 5 through Oct. 7, showed Brown leading 47 percent to 43 percent, within the 4.4 percent margin of error. The lead drops to 3 percentage points — 48 percent to 45 percent — with the inclusion of respondents who say they have not fully made up their mind but are leaning to one candidate….

[T]his was the first poll taken after the Oct. 3 presidential debate between President Obama and Governor Mitt Romney. That debate has helped boost Romney’s campaign, which may be affecting races lower on the ballot.

Obama lead[s] Romney by 16 points on the newest WBUR poll. It’s a sizeable advantage, but down from the 28 point lead he held in the previous WBUR poll.

If you’re going to watch the debate, please share your reactions in the comments, or use this as an open thread.