Mostly Monday Reads: The Butterfly Effect v. the Trump Effect

Salvador Dali, Venus Butterfly, 1947

Good Day, Sky Dancers!

Indictment watch is an ongoing activity these days.  The Dog Days of Summer are ongoing.  This week, every day will be authentically over 100 degrees, and the heat index will be way above that.  I’m just glad I have very few reasons to leave my house, although I need a much better AC if this is a new reality. The dog and I barhop at night.  I do it for the artic blast of all those window A/C units.  Her motivation is the dog biscuits behind the bar and very dog-friendly bartenders.  We feel better afterward, and I never complain about the boatload of ice in my Tanq and Tonic.  Temple is actually quite good at navigating the Bywater Barumuda Triangle.  She quickly learned the route and the whereabouts of the preferred biscuit jar. She also knows which bartenders will shower her with biscuits if she gives them the right look.

CNN analyst Ella Nilsen answers one of my ongoing questions. “Why Republicans can’t get out of their climate bind, even as extreme heat overwhelms the US.”

Deadly heatwaves are baking the US. Scientists just reported that July will be the hottest month on record. And now, after years of skepticism and denial in the GOP ranks, a small number of Republicans are urging their party to get proactive on the climate crisis.

But the GOP is stuck in a climate bind – and likely will be for the next four years, in large part because they’re still living in the shadow of former president and 2024 Republican frontrunner Donald Trump.

Even as more Republican politicians are joining the consensus that climate change is real and caused by humans, Trump’s inflammatory rhetoric has driven the party to the right on climate and extreme weather. Trump has called the extremely settled science of climate change a “hoax” and more recently suggested that the impacts of it “may affect us in 300 years.”

Scientists this week reported that this summer’s unrelenting heat wave would have been “virtually impossible” were it not for the planet-warming pollution from burning fossil fuels. They also confirmed that July will go down as the hottest month on record – and almost certainly that the planet’s temperature is hotter now than it has been in around 120,000 years.

Yet for being one of the most pressing issues of the 21st century, climate is rarely mentioned on the 2024 campaign trail.

“As Donald Trump is the near presumptive nominee of our party in 2024, it’s going to be very hard for a party to adopt a climate-sensitive policy,” Sen. Mitt Romney, a Republican from Utah, told CNN. “But Donald Trump’s not going to be around forever.”

When Republicans do weigh in on climate change – and what we should do about it – they tend to support the idea of capturing planet-warming pollution rather than cutting fossil fuels. But many are reticent to talk about how to solve the problem, and worry Trump is having a chilling effect on policies to combat climate within the party.

“We need to be talking about this,” Rep. John Curtis, a Republican from Utah and chair of the House’s Conservative Climate Caucus, told CNN. “And part of it for Republicans is when you don’t talk about it, you have no ideas at the table; all you’re doing is saying what you don’t like. We need to be saying what we like.”

With a few exceptions, Republicans largely are no longer the party of full-on climate change denial. But even as temperatures rise to deadly highs, the GOP is also not actively addressing it. There is still no “robust discussion about how to solve it” within the party, said former South Carolina Rep. Bob Inglis, who now runs the conservative climate group RepublicEn, save for criticism of Democrats’ clean-energy initiatives.

“The good news is Republicans are stopping arguing with thermometers,” Inglis told CNN. Still, he said, “when the experience is multiplied over and over of multiple days of three-digit temperatures in Arizona and record ocean temperatures, people start to say, ‘this is sort of goofy we’re not doing something about this.’”

Meanwhile, the impacts of a dramatically warming atmosphere are becoming more and more apparent each year. Romney and Curtis, two of the loudest climate voices in the party, both represent Utah – a state that’s no stranger to extreme heat and drought, which scientists say is being fueled by rising global temperatures.

“There are a number of states, like mine, that are concerned about wildfires and water,” Romney said, adding he believes Republican governors of impacted states have been vocal about these issues.

Great Peacock Moth, Vincent van Gogh,1889

NPR actually focuses on New Orleans for the kinds of problems that cities are facing with the heat and public health. “In broiling cities like New Orleans, the health system faces off against heat stroke.”  I’ve actually had two episodes of heat sicknesses during July but have managed to find my way to a cold bath with a carefully placed fan where I rate how fucking hot it is by how many times I repeat this ritual.  I can tell precisely hot it is by where Dinah is in the back part of the house.  Right now, she’s here in my room, but that will be short-lived. She heads for the floor under the highboy, where the a/c can really cool her down when it’s peak hot.  Kristal and Temple are fond of lying in front of the bathtub when I’m in there reading and chilling.  Keely just hides under the bed near Dinah. The A/C manages to keep that bedroom fairly cool.

As the hour creeps past three in the afternoon, New Orleans’ streets are devoid of tourists and locals alike. The heat index is over 105 degrees.

At the city’s ambulance depot, the concrete parking lot seems to magnify the sweltering heat, circulating the air like a convection oven.

New Orleans Emergency Medical Services has been busy this summer, responding to heat-related emergency calls and rushing patients to nearby hospitals.

Capt. Janick Lewis and Lt. Titus Carriere demonstrate how they can load a stretcher into an ambulance using an automated loading system.

Lewis wipes sweat from his brow as the loading arm whirs and hums, raising the stretcher into the ambulance — “unit” in official terminology.

But the mechanical assistance isn’t the best thing about the new vehicle. “The nicest thing about being assigned a brand new unit, is it’s a brand-new air conditioning system,” Lewis says.

The new AC is much more than just a luxury for the hard-working crews. These days they need the extra cooling power to help save lives.

“The number one thing you do take care of somebody is get them out of the heat, get them somewhere cool,” Lewis says. “So the number one thing we spend our time worrying about in the summertime is keeping the truck cool.”

Like much of the country, New Orleans has been embroiled in an almost relentless heat wave for weeks. As a result, more people are falling ill with heat-related conditions than ever before. Just last week, EMS responded to 29 heat-related calls — more than triple compared to the same period last year.

As the city’s emergency medical systems deal with the influx of patients, scientists say these dangerous heat levels — and the increasing stress they put on human bodies and medical systems — may be the new norm.

At the same time, New Orleans EMS has struggled with funding and staffing challenges. It’s currently operating with only 60% of its needed staff. The city’s chief of EMS has called for increased funding for higher wages to attract more workers.

Lewis says they’re making do with the resources they have, and prioritizing one-time expenses like new ambulances to help them meet the challenges they’re facing.

“We’re going to provide the care everybody needs, regardless of how hot it gets,” Lewis says. “We’d love to have all the help in the world, but we’re getting the job done with what we have right now.”

Butterflies, 1910, Odilon Redon

NPR Morning Edition discusses the impact of the heat on everything, including your mood.

If you’re feeling a bit brain-fogged these days, you might not be wrong to blame it on the heat.

Several summers back, researchers in Boston studied young adults living in college dorm rooms during a heat wave. Some had central AC and slept at a cool 71 degrees Fahrenheit. Others slept in rooms without air-conditioning, where the temperature hovered around 80 degrees.

Each morning for nearly two weeks, the students took a few tests, administered on their cellphones. The people who slept in the hotter dorm rooms performed measurably worse on the tests.

The tests included a math test requiring simple addition and subtraction and a second test, the Stroop test, that jumbles colors and words. “So, if I show the word ‘red’ in the color blue, participants have to respond ‘blue,'” says study author Jose Guillermo Cedeño Laurent, an assistant professor at the Rutgers School of Public Health.

It’s easy to get tripped up if your attention or reaction time is slowed, he says, and that’s exactly what heat appears to be doing. “The magnitude of the effect was really striking,” Cedeño Laurent says. “We saw reductions in the order of 10% in their response times and also their accuracy.”

Part of this effect may be explained by interrupted sleep. It can be hard to get a good night’s rest if you’re not accustomed to the heat, and a lack of sleep could certainly impair reaction time and focus. But there’s a body of evidence suggesting it may be something about the heat itself that interferes with cognition.

Anastasiya Markovich, Effect of Butterfly (date unknown)

Yup. That would be me.  A lot of service industry folks rely on buses and streetcars. It can be a long wait in the sun followed by a street car with fans or a bus with the A/C.  This is the worst we’ve ever seen things down here.  

“The Indictment Watch Games are on!  We’ve got more teasing coming from Fulton County DA Willis this weekend.    It’s spreading for the minions loyal to Trump even though the Big Wait is mainly for Trump. “DA Fani Willis gives more insight into decision over Trump Georgia election investigation.  Willis said she’s keeping her promise to give the American people an answer by Sept. 1.

Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis is speaking just ahead of potential charges being filed against former President Donald Trump and his allies.

It’s still unclear if Trump will be charged by D.A. Willis, but 11Alive is getting a little more insight into what we can expect in the coming days after speaking with Willis at a back-to-school event in Sandy Springs.

Willis said her back-to-school events are her favorite time of the year. And it’s bringing her joy before the big decisions she has to make in the next few weeks.

“I was a single mom,” Willis said. “And I can remember at the beginning of school years, that’s one more financial hit. We want to relieve that stress for parents.”

Mother-of-three Amiria Otiti said she hadn’t even started back-to-school shopping yet. However, events like this take the load off.

“It helps tremendously because everything is priced high,” Otiti said. “And anything I can do to save, I want to save.”

Willis was all smiles giving away free school supplies at Morgan Falls Overlook Park in Sandy Springs, but after this, it’s back to business. While the kids prepare for school, Willis is preparing for a potential indictment of former President Trump and his allies for attempting to overturn the 2020 election.

“Some people may not be happy with the decisions that I’m making,” Willis said. “And sometimes, when people are unhappy, they act in a way that could create harm.”

She didn’t give many details, but Willis said another way she’s preparing is by upping security. She explained she wrote a letter to the Fulton County Sheriff Patrick “Pat” Labat.

“I think that the sheriff is doing something smart in making sure that the courthouse stays safe,” Willis said.

That includes the grand jury.

“I’m not willing to put any of the employees or the constituents that come to the courthouse in harm’s way,” Willis said.

Willis said she’s holding true to her commitment to giving the American people an answer by Sep. 1. This could be Trump’s third indictment case of the year.

Saturday students got what they needed to do their homework. And Willis said she’s doing hers too.

“The work is accomplished,” Willis said, “We’ve been working for two-and-a-half years. We’re ready to go.”

Fujishima Takeji, 蝶 藤島武二筆 Butterflies,(1904)

August 7 to August 14 is the apparent window.  Liz Dye of Public Notice has this analysis of the new superseding indictments.  “Trump’s superseding indictment paints a picture of a ridiculous Mar-a-Lago clown show. These guys are comically bad at criming.”  Trump makes a criminal movement, and its effect disturbs everyone’s peace for weeks and years to follow. 

The newest Donald Trump indictment dropped last week, and above all it is ridiculous.The spectacle of the two gormless henchmen creeping around the basement pointing flashlights at security cameras and the servers they’d been dispatched by to wipe — all the while being captured by those very same cameras! — is almost too ludicrous to bear. Who knew there could be something more preposterous than that photo of the tacky bathroom with the boxes stacked in the shower?

The excitement started last Thursday morning with reports that Trump was about to be indicted in DC for his role in the January 6 Capitol riot. Instead, Special Counsel Jack Smith filed a superseding indictment in the Florida documents case, introducing us to a new defendant: Carlos De Oliveira, the Mar-a-Lago property manager. Like Walt Nauta, De Oliveira started as a valet before being promoted in 2022. And like Nauta, De Oliveira participated in the shell game with the former president’s “beautiful mind boxes” to avoid the prying eyes of the FBI, as well as Trump’s hapless lawyer, Evan Corcoran.

The original indictment laid out the scheme by which Nauta allegedly moved the boxes of swiped presidential records in and out of the storage locker near the Mar-a-Lago pool, allowing Trump to cull what he planned to keep before Corcoran could conduct a search on June 2, 2022, for the documents subpoenaed by the grand jury. Mindful that classified documents require certain protocols, the lawyer placed 38 records with classified markings in a Redweld folder sealed with clear duct tape supplied by Nauta, and then delicately ignored suggestions from his client that he “pluck” out anything too incriminating.

The next day, Corcoran and attorney Christina Bobb, previously a reporter at One America News, met at Trump’s club with Jay Bratt, the head of the Justice Department’s Counterintelligence Division. During the meeting, they handed Bratt a false declaration, prepared by Corcoran and signed by Bobb, representing that “a diligent search was conducted of the boxes that were moved from the White House to Florida” and “any and all documents responsive to the subpoena accompany this certification.” This scheme, which was (of course!) documented in a long voice memo Corcoran dictated the next day, forms the basis for counts 34 through 38 of the newest indictment.

But during that visit, Corcoran showed Bratt the storage locker, inadvertently revealing a security camera in the corridor outside it and setting off the chain of events which constitute the four new counts in the superseding indictment.

On June 22 of last year, prosecutors told Trump’s lawyers that they planned to subpoena the camera footage, at which point it dawned on Trump that the feds were going to figure out that he’d pulled a fast one on his own lawyer. The next day, Trump had a 24 minute phone call with Carlos De Oliveira.

Two days later, when the subpoena actually dropped, Trump and his minions sprung into action. Trump, who was then at his Bedminster club in New Jersey, summoned Nauta for a confab, after which the valet abruptly changed his plans to accompany his boss to Illinois, sending a flurry of conflicting text messages which might just as well have shouted, DON’T LOOK IN THE TRUNK OFFICER, BECAUSE THERE’S DEFINITELY NO BODY IN THERE.

“Metamorphosis In Blue” by Duy Huynh

All we need is Don Knots and Tim Conway, and there would be a movie in this.  Phillip Bump provides some analysis of the Pantomime Right Wing Grievance Plays in the Washington Post. “The right once again gins up a baseless claim of intimidation.”

Earlier this month, there was a brief flurry of agitation on the right over what was presented as an effort to silence testimony from someone with information damaging to President Biden. The Justice Department unsealed an indictment against a man named Gal Luft, who, the government claims, had aided Chinese government interests and worked to evade sanctions on Iran as he served as a director at a D.C.-area think tank. Luft had previously been identified as a potential anti-Biden witness by House Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer (R-Ky.).

It’s not clear what evidence Luft was prepared to offer against Biden and his son Hunter, though New York Post columnist Miranda Devine, reporting about a videotaped statement from Luft, didn’t find much that was new. But still: Here was a potential witness against the government, facing criminal charges! Weaponization of the legal system … just like they’ve been doing to Donald Trump!

As you may by now be aware, this wasn’t actually the story. The Justice Department unsealed the charges this month, but the indictment had been handed down in November. Luft’s claims about Biden came to the attention of Comer and Devine, it seems, only after he’d been arrested on those charges earlier this year and began claiming that he was being targeted because of what he knew.

The argument from Comer and his allies was either misinformed or dishonest. But they appear not to have internalized any lessons from it.

On Sunday, Devine had a new report: In a letter, Devine said, the Justice Department was trying to imprison Hunter Biden’s former business partner, Devon Archer, before he could offer testimony to Comer’s committee on Monday.

“The DOJ is trying to arrest Devon Archer ahead of his bombshell testimony Monday about Joe Biden’s involvement in his son Hunter’s Ukraine business when he was VP,” Devine wrote on social media. The letter, she claimed, sought to send Archer “to jail immediately.”

Comer dutifully showed up on Maria Bartiromo’s Sunday morning Fox News show, where the host asked him about the letter. (Bartiromo, like Devine, is often at the center of these discussions. It was to Bartiromo that Comer had in May admitted losing track of a witness — a witness who turned out to be Gal Luft and who had gone missing because he skipped bail on the charges that Comer earlier this month pretended were new.)

Well, there’s crazy from the heat and crazy just because that’s the Republican Party Schtick these days.

So, I’m just going to lay low this week. I’m not sure if I can take another summer like this one.  Denver and Seattle are looking better every day.  It’s too darn hot!

What’s on your reading and blogging list today?

My Bar buddy Temple agrees!

Temple and I listen to the Blues at BJ’s. Temple rates it five stars for the biscuits and pats. Oh, and the band was great!