Apocalypse Not So Much

Well, it didn’t happen. Bummer. It will soon be 6PM in Oakland. According to predictions by Harold Camping of Family Radio in Oakland, CA, a giant earthquake was supposed to hit at 6PM New Zealand time and then the apocalypse would continue around the globe, hitting each time zone at around 6PM. Here’s what Camping said would happen:

…when we get to May 21 on the calendar in any city or country in the world, and the clock says about — this is based on other verses in the Bible — when the clock says about 6 p.m., there’s going to be this tremendous earthquake that’s going to make the last earthquake in Japan seem like nothing in comparison. And the whole world will be alerted that Judgment Day has begun. And then it will follow the sun around for 24 hours. As each area of the world gets to that point of 6 p.m. on May 21, then it will happen there, and until it happens, the rest of the world will be standing far off and witnessing the horrible thing that is happening.

The only earth changes that I could find today was a volcano that erupted in Iceland (h/t Minkoff Minx) and set off a bunch of quakes. But that happens all the time in Iceland. So it looks like Camping has once again been proven to be a false prophet. The Guardian UK reports:

as the deadline for the Apocalypse passed in the Pacific islands, New Zealand and Australia, it became apparent that Camping’s prediction of the end of the world was to end not with a bang but with a whimper.

Only on Twitter did the supposed Armageddon sweep the world, with users expressing their mock disappointment at the lack of dead people rising from their graves.

New Zealander Daniel Boerman tweeted: “I’m from New Zealand, it is 6:06PM, the world has NOT ended. No earthquakes here, all waiting for the rapture can relax for now. #Rapture”

In Australia, Jon Gall of Melbourne was unimpressed by the lack of fire and brimstone. He tweeted: “#Rapture time here in Melbourne. A rather quiet sort of rapture if you ask me.

“Well we have had the #Rapture going for 50 minutes now. So far it hasn’t interrupted my fish & chips and glass of stout.”

When will Harold Camping comment on the failure of his prediction that today would be Judgment Day? The media wants Camping’s reactions.

The world is expecting to hear something soon from Camping or he risks being branded as a false prophet. Especially Camping’s followers will be demanding an explanation as they had put all their faith in Camping’s prediction, quitting jobs, selling their possessions and donating all their money to support the Doomsday campaign.

[….]

The popular broadcaster, who has been widely heard across the world, is now maintaining a stoic silence. Meanwhile, the Family Radio headquarter in Oakland, CA display a cryptic message in large letters: “This Office is Closed. Sorry we missed you!” pasted on its front door.

According to a Reuters report, Camping’s house in Alameda, CA is covered with shades and no one was available. Camping has previously said that he would be watching TV and listening to the radio in his home at the appointed time.

One wonders what he is doing right now?

If you think about it, old Harold didn’t do too badly for himself. He got a huge amount of free media coverage, and today he’s at the top of Google News’ top stories. After all, even many of Camping’s employees at Family Radio didn’t believe the prophecies would materialize:

“I don’t believe in any of this stuff that’s going on, and I plan on being here next week,” a receptionist at their Oakland headquarters told CNNMoney.

According to tax filings examined by CNNMoney, the group raises about $18 million in contributions a year and is worth $72 million in total. And while it might seem quixotic to examine the business logic of a messianic cult, the tax filings do raise one obvious question: If the world is ending on May 21, why did it request an extension of its Minnesota tax deadline from July 15 to November 15?

So was it all a publicity stunt? And how will the true believers react to not being raptured? It turns out there has been quite a bit of research on what happens to cult followers when their leaders’ doomsday predictions don’t materialize. According to Vaughn Bell at Slate, the first to study this question was psychologist Leon Festinger–the originator of the concept of “cognitive dissonance.” In order to investigate this notion, Festinger studied a doomsday cult called the “Seekers.” Their leader had predicted that a huge flood was coming and the Seekers would be rescued by a flying saucer.

The Seekers abandoned their jobs, possessions, and spouses to wait for the flying saucer, but neither the aliens nor the apocalypse arrived. After several uncomfortable hours on the appointed day, Martin received a “message” saying that the group “had spread so much light that God had saved the world from destruction.” The group responded by proselytizing with a renewed vigour. According to Festinger, they resolved the intense conflict between reality and prophecy by seeking safety in numbers. “If more people can be persuaded that the system of belief is correct, then clearly, it must, after all, be correct.”

Later research did not support Festinger’s hypothesis that failure of doomsday prophecies would lead to more proselytizing.

What Festinger failed to understand is that prophecies, per se, almost never fail. They are instead component parts of a complex and interwoven belief system which tends to be very resilient to challenge from outsiders. While the rest of us might focus on the accuracy of an isolated claim as a test of a group’s legitimacy, those who are part of that group—and already accept its whole theology—may not be troubled by what seems to them like a minor mismatch. A few people might abandon the group, typically the newest or least-committed adherents, but the vast majority experience little cognitive dissonance and so make only minor adjustments to their beliefs. They carry on, often feeling more spiritually enriched as a result.

So will the true believers continue to follow Camping and believe his prophecies? Stay tuned. I’m sure the media will let us know.