Campaign Payola Lives On

In one of the most disturbing Supreme Court decisions in some time, 5 justices voted to overturn Campaign limitations for huge corporations and unions.

The 5-to-4 decision was a doctrinal earthquake but also a political and practical one. Specialists in campaign finance law said they expected the decision, which also applies to labor unions and other organizations, to reshape the way elections are conducted.

“If the First Amendment has any force,” Justice Anthony M. Kennedy wrote for the majority, which included the four members of its conservative wing, “it prohibits Congress from fining or jailing citizens, or associations of citizens, for simply engaging in political speech.”

Justice John Paul Stevens read a long dissent from the bench. He said the majority had committed a grave error in treating corporate speech the same as that of human beings. His decision was joined by the other three members of the court’s liberal wing.

I’d personally like Justice Kennedy to explain to me how a huge multinational corporation is an ‘association’ of citizens. The ruling literally opens the floodgates to big money. Here’s two responses from two very different politicians. This quote comes from the NYT article referenced above.

Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the Republican leader and a longtime opponent of that law, praised the Court’s decision as “an important step in the direction of restoring the First Amendment rights of these groups by ruling that the Constitution protects their right to express themselves about political candidates and issues up until Election Day.”President Obama issued a statement calling on Congress to “develop a forceful response to this decision.”

“With its ruling today,” he said, “the Supreme Court has given a green light to a new stampede of special interest money in our politics. It is a major victory for big oil, Wall Street banks, health insurance companies and the other powerful interests that marshal their power every day in Washington to drown out the voices of everyday Americans.”

Politico suggests the decision will help more Republicans than Democrats to raise funds.

The decision, handed down in a special session of the court, is generally expected to boost Republicans more than Democrats, because corporations and corporate-backed outside groups tend to align with conservatives and also often have access to more money than unions or liberal outside groups.

“No sufficient governmental interest justifies limits on the political speech of nonprofit or for-profit corporation,” Justice Anthony Kennedy wrote for the majority.

In a stinging dissent, Justice John Paul Stevens wrote that the ruling “threatens to undermine the integrity of elected institutions across the nation. The path it has taken to reach its outcome will, I fear, do damage to this institution.”

NPR points to one part of campaign finance reform that remains.

At the same time, NPR’s Peter Overby points out that one important limit remains intact: Corporations still cannot give money directly to federal candidates or national party committees. That limit dates to 1907. The justices also upheld some other restrictions, including disclosure requirements for nonprofit groups that advocate for political candidates.

The original case before the court seemed an improbable vehicle for such a dramatic re-examination of campaign funding regulations.

Brought by Citizens United, a nonprofit group, against the Federal Election Commission, the case presented a seemingly straightforward question: Do campaign finance restrictions on corporate spending apply to Citizen United’s plan to run advertisements for an anti-Hillary Clinton documentary at the peak of her 2008 presidential run?

But the high court ended up in a much broader examination of constitutional issues that questioned the entire system that has been built up over decades to regulate the role of corporate money in politics.

Marc Ambinder at The Atlantic explains what this means to our current financing system which brought about the creation of PACs.

This basically eliminates a middleman: before today, corporations and unions had to set up PACs (political action committees), filed separately with the IRS, that would receive donations. And they did. Corporations and unions spend millions of dollars on elections. Now, however, the accounting firewall is gone, and Wal-Mart or the Service Employees International Union, for instance, can spend their corporate money directly on candidates.

We might as well borrow the jacket labeling idea from NASCAR and assign each candidate a corporate sponsor logo. This is just one more step towards ensuring we’ll all be slaves to big Oil, big Defense, Big Finance, and Big Medicine. Who owns your Senator and Representative?


Can We stop the Next Madoff or the next AIG?

I know you think I spend a lot of time obsessing on financial market regulations. Part of this obsession is an occupational hazard, but a good deal of it has to do with how close I am supposed to be to cashing in on a well-earned retirement while rectifying my retirement savings with the worst decade of stock returns ever. So, here I am referring to Bloomberg again.

This time the person of interest is Mary Shapiro and the regulator is the SEC. Yup, I’m off the Fed for at least one thread. The article today is Wall Street Waits as SEC Fails to Bring Madoff-Inspired Reforms. I’m trying to fight off my gut feeling that everything’s been a Ponzi Scheme recently while writing this particular thread. Still, I have to feel a bit admiration for Shapiro who has probably walked into the nation’s most neglected regulator since the Bush decade of corporate decadence made it the rubberstamp of millionaire investment bankers.

Shapiro’s really been putting in the hours. Here’s one of the things that’s been tops on my list as an academic that researches financial economics, the ratings agencies, as well as the one market that really came apart at the seems last year, that for money market accounts which are more depository and less speculative than the current rules recognize.

The SEC is reviewing public comments on the still- unfinished credit-rating rules, which would require companies such as Moody’s Investors Service and Standard & Poor’s to disclose how much revenue they get from their biggest clients and subject their employees to the same liability standards as auditors.

Schapiro also has yet to complete work on rules for money market funds. After last year’s collapse of the $62.5 billion Reserve Primary Fund, the Obama administration called the industry a “significant source of systemic risk.” SEC commissioners plan to vote next year on a proposal to force funds to hold a bigger share of their assets in investments that are easy to liquidate.

Still there is so much work to be done to get the entire regulatory scheme into the 21st century that you have to feel like she has a Sisyphean task ahead. Hedge funds have been pressing hard to avoid any curbs on short-selling. Naked Shorts have frequently been a source of great volatility in markets. She’s also seeking more authority to run more comprehensive examinations of the holders of the nation’s largest accounts. That’s not buying her many fans on Wall Street and the lobbyists have, of course, have managed to stall some of those attempts.

All and all, anything that leads to increased translucence and standardization of processes reduces information asymmetry and lets the public know about their investments is a good regulation. This type of regulation actually increases the functioning of the market rather than burdens it. Hopefully, the Democrat congress will see more benefit to updating the regulation of financial markets than it’s republican predecessors. Still, the intense involvement of the financial community in the Obama campaign was hard to miss and the distinct lack of support for tougher regulation is hard to miss. The financial lobby has deep pockets and broad influence in the nation’s capitol.

Some of the toughest battles over regulation have to do with giving stockholders more influence over Board of directors with their role of setting executive pay and perks. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce, a powerful lobby, hates these efforts.

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce, which represents more than 3 million companies, called the SEC plan “unworkable” in an August letter. The nation’s largest business lobby has also been discussing with Gibson, Dunn & Crutcher LLP attorneys a strategy for suing the SEC, said Tom Quaadman, a Chamber executive director.

By September, Schapiro’s staff began telling investors that the so-called proxy-access rules wouldn’t be in place for 2010 director elections. In October, the SEC publicly announced the delay.

Schapiro said the SEC still hopes to approve the rule in the first three months of 2010. “It’s a pretty profound change to the fabric of corporate governance,” she said in the interview. “We need to do it carefully and thoughtfully.”

Her agenda has sometimes been driven by political pressure, said James Angel, a finance professor at Georgetown University in Washington who has served as an adviser to stock exchanges.

One of the most interesting portions of this article was the interplay reported between Congress and the SEC. You may want to read that portion alone. Here are two noteworthy efforts by Barney Frank and Charles Schumer.

The effort to curtail short-selling, in which traders borrow stock and sell it, hoping to profit by replacing the shares at a lower price, followed lobbying from Democratic lawmakers after the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 19 percent in the first two months of the year.

Representative Barney Frank, chairman of the House Financial Services Committee — the SEC’s overseer in the House — announced Schapiro’s plans for her at a March 10 press conference. The Massachusetts Democrat said he was “hopeful,” after speaking with the SEC boss, that she’d reinstate the uptick rule “within a month.” The SEC in 2007 had scrapped the rule, which required investors to wait for the price of a stock to rise before executing short sales.

In July, the prodding came from Senator Charles Schumer. The New York Democrat urged Schapiro, a political independent, to ban flash orders, which such trading venues as Direct Edge Holdings LLC were using to take market share from NYSE Euronext.

They’re also seeking to give the SEC authority over derivatives which have been the estranged stepchild of regualtion for some time now.

Traders use the mostly unregulated contracts to speculate on everything from interest rates to oil prices, and companies use them to protect against losses. Obama administration officials say a lack of transparency in the $605 trillion derivatives market exacerbated the credit crisis and contributed to the near-failure of American International Group Inc., once the world’s biggest insurer.

Under lawmakers’ plans, banks and investors would trade contracts on regulated platforms that are monitored by the SEC and Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Having won the battle to share oversight of derivatives with the CFTC, Schapiro now must prove that her agency can manage the new responsibility. In preparation, she has hired economists and former Wall Street traders to add market expertise to an agency staff made up mostly of attorneys.

I’d like to think that Shapiro, Frank, Schumer and the Justice Department will work this year on ending the mishmash of old regulations and no regulation that has characterized the century so far. It’s probably no coincidence that the unraveling of most of the banking laws meant to stave off a Great Depression happened prior to the Great Recession. That’s not saying that we need to re-erect the old laws word-for-word. It simply means that we need to recognize that financial markets are somewhat like football games. The work a lot better when you can watch the re-plays and see all the angles of the plays, and when there’s an agreed upon set of rules that every one knows and follows. It also helps to have a set of really good referees to watch the players and enforce the rules and that’s where the FED and the SEC come in. Financial regulation shouldn’t be a burden to any market participant. If anything, regulation should provide a playing field where every one can enjoy the game. Especially, those of us that either rely on the game for our living or our retirements. The country can’t afford another decade of lost returns.


Our National Ponzi Scheme

me_1114Doctor Doom, Nourielle Roubini, an economist and professor at NYU, always manages to turn an interesting phrase when making his trademark pessimistic forecasts. He’s really done it this week in Forbes.

I wrote about the Federal deficit last week and covered the major points of why we are on an unsustainable path for our taxes and spending and when that could be a problem. The Obama administration continues to revise its spending and deficit estimates upward as an act of surprise over how deep the recession has been. I’ve raised a Spock-like eyebrow over that and have been lighting candles on my alter to the wisdom beings that, hopefully, the White House will get more real. Well, nothing makes things more real than a splash of freezing water in the face while sipping the first cup of the day’s coffee. Roubini is his fully alarmed self. He basically accuses our political class of running one big Ponzi Scheme and we are the suckers.

The fiscal implications of the current policy package are particularly serious. For the time being, fiscal policy has been put at the service of survival, but the current price of survival is that net public debt is going to double as a share of GDP between 2008 and 2014. Even using the very optimistic forecasts of the Congressional Budget Office, which anticipate growth of around 4% over the next few years, the net debt burden will rise from 40% of GDP to 80%–that’s an increase in the debt stock of about $9 trillion. The interest charge alone on that increased debt will be in the region of $300 billion to $400 billion a year, which in turn may mean more borrowing to pay the interest if primary deficits are not reduced. When governments reach the point where they are borrowing to pay the interest on their borrowing they are coming dangerously close to running a sovereign Ponzi scheme.

Ponzi schemes have a way of ending unhappily. To get out of the Ponzi trap, governments will have to raise taxes, or cut spending, or monetize the debt–or most likely do some combination of all three.

Wow! If those estimates are right, just about every one with hands on the budget from the last 4 congresses to the last two Presidents should be in the jail cell next to Bernie Madoff. The information coming from the CBO is really what started ringing the death knell for health reform last spring. It should be completely obvious to any one that has followed the last stimulus package, what currently passes for ‘health care reform’, the escalation of ongoing wars, the Bush medicare pharmaceutical giveaway, bail-out bonanzas, and all those Bush tax cuts from the beginning of his term, that our fiscal policy actions need to be renamed nails in our collective coffin. We simply have to re-arrange our priorities or we will be assigned to the rubbish heap of failed empires. I can’t even image the People’s Republic (our banker) even relishes that outcome. I really, at this point, am incapable of optimism that any of this will be turned around in time. We continue to elect leaders that are either completely out of touch with reality or don’t care about it. We have VooDoo Government.

If Dick Cheney’s evil plan was to bankrupt the Federal Government, it’s working.

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Too Much Optimistic = Damned Lies!

econ-forumAre we beginning to see the omnipresent reification of the Obama hope/change theme recognized for what it is? All of the memes on superior judgment have been an abstract campaign mantra with no basis in reality. Who but a few among us have recognized this? Are we seeing the first signs of a satori from the all too real realm of the economy and Americans who are losing everything because they have no job? All I can say is it is about damned time and I’m praying that it isn’t too late to get fooled again.

Today’s Pit Boss (Jeanne Cummings) at Politico brings the perspective to inside the beltway where grasping reality has always been a Herculean task. The blog piece is called “Some economists warn Barack Obama’s economic predictions too optimistic.” This economist just calls their prediction lies, lies and more damn lies.

This time, however, the new forecasts — if they are anything like what many outside economists expect — could send a jolt through Capitol Hill, where even the administration’s current debt projections already are prompting deep concerns on political and substantive grounds.

Higher deficit figures also would arrive at a critical moment in the health care debate, as lawmakers are already struggling to find a way to pay for the president’s nearly $1 trillion reform package.

Alternately, if Obama clings to current optimistic forecasts for long-term growth, he risks accusations that he is basing his fiscal plans on fictitious assumptions — precisely the sort of charge he once leveled against the Bush administration.

White House officials rebuff such suggestions, saying the midyear correction is precisely intended to keep their economic program reality based.

But a series of POLITICO interviews in recent days with independent economists of varied political stripes found widespread disdain for Obama’s first round of assumptions, with some experts invoking such phrases as “rosy” and “fantasy.”

Obama’s current forecasts envision 3.2 percent growth next year, 4 percent growth in 2011, 4.6 percent growth in 2012 and 4.2 percent growth in 2013.

Let me continue with the translation of “experts invoking such phrases as “rosy” and “fantasy” and just call them lies, lies, and more damned lies! Clear enough? Following my theme yesterday, I offer what we economists call the stylized facts to offset the varnished untruths wafting through Big Brother’s media screed.

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An Economic Exercise in Wishful Thinking

Warning:  Shouldn't before making economic policy during desperate times.

Warning: Do NOT use before making economic policy.

In today’s NY Times, David Leonhardt is very clear about the role of hope and wishful thinking among the Obama economics team. They got the unemployment numbers very, very wrong and as a result, we got a stimulus package that was underdesigned and oversold. If you read me or for that matter, Paul Krugman or Joseph Stiglitz, you were warned about the likely result. While this m.o. among Obama and his minions comes as no surprise to folks here, we’re beginning to see the resulting shock and awe as every one else awakens to policy based on the empty rhetoric of hope and no real change. Precious time, political majorities and capital are being wasted on an enhanced status quo.

In the weeks just before President Obama took office, his economic advisers made a mistake. They got a little carried away with hope.

To make the case for a big stimulus package, they released their economic forecast for the next few years. Without the stimulus, they saw the unemployment rate — then 7.2 percent — rising above 8 percent in 2009 and peaking at 9 percent next year. With the stimulus, the advisers said, unemployment would probably peak at 8 percent late this year.

We now know that this forecast was terribly optimistic. The jobless rate has already reached 9.4 percent. On Thursday, the Labor Department will announce the latest number, for June, and forecasters are expecting it to rise further. In concrete terms, the difference between the situation that the Obama advisers predicted and the one that has come to pass is about 2.5 million jobs. It’s as if every worker in the city of Los Angeles received an unexpected layoff notice.

There are some fundamental things in the labor market that the Obama Team somehow overlooked. The first is the unwinding of the automobile network and all the supporting infrastructure around the supply and sales chain. The second is the impact on the states of low tax revenues and high unemployment insurance payouts. Some how, in focusing on the impact of the financial crisis, they appeared to haven forgotten some basic underlying macroeconomic dynamics. At least, that is my take. They may have kept their eye on the ball, but they failed to look around the bigger field of play.

Leonhardt points to two possible explanations as to why so many very bright people got it so wrong. He argues that because the stimulus package was designed poorly and hurried through with the rosy scenario coloring the numbers, that it is possible that the stimulus package has done nothing and that as a result, things are getting worse. That’s hypothesis number one. His second hypothesis is the more likely one in both his and my opinion. That is that the economy is deteriorating further and this is despite of the stimulus. Again, this would be due to a bad forecast and an even worse policy prescription. So he’s laid out the ground work for the big question while giving a slight nod to some potential for the stimulus plan.

The stimulus package does seem to have helped. But its impact has been minor — so fahand-da-vincir — compared with the harshness of the Great Recession.

Unfortunately, the administration’s rose-colored forecast has muddied this picture. So if at some point this year or next the White House decides that the economy needs more stimulus, skeptics will surely brandish that old forecast.

Worst of all, the economy really may need more help.

Well, you know, on the one hand, on the other hand. However, whichever hand you choose, this is a policy failure we couldn’t afford.

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