Working your Way into the Poor House
Posted: April 3, 2011 Filed under: income inequality, Team Obama, The Bonus Class, U.S. Economy, unemployment | Tags: income stagnation, shrinking middle class, wage insecurity, wage stagnation 18 CommentsThe basic promise of modern America was that you can work hard and get ahead. These days, that promise goes
undelivered daily. The gap between the promise and the delivery is widening exponentially and it’s time for all of us to get the few to listen. The basic problem in our economy is that we are not producing jobs that help working families meet basic needs. I see this a lot down here in New Orleans where many of our homeless people sleep on air mattresses in front of the shelter at night but have jobs in the French Quarter during the day. They wash dishes or straighten beds. They work and they work hard. Yet, they cannot afford basic shelter in a southern city with relatively low costs of living compared to other places. This is not the Social Contract we’ve been taught in our schools for years. Working a job is not supposed to mean you can’t get your children to the doctor or put a roof over your head.
I wanted to highlight the recent findings of an income insecurity study for you. Then, I’m going to talk about the role of wage and income stagnation in all of that. I felt that just possibly you might take your Sunday afternoon to look at the people around you and appreciate the struggle. The first study was commissioned by Wider Opportunities for Women. The results were highlighted in the New York Times. The uncovered realities are harsh and make the future for many folks in this country look unpromising. WOW was looking for an index–now called National BEST–to demonstrate how much it takes to minimally exist in the US as a middle class family and how far short some of our citizens have fallen of that minimal standard. It’s a slightly upscale version of the Poverty index. It basically tells you what it takes to be marginally working/middle class. This measure includes good nutrition, a small sedan, and some basic savings for retirement so it’s not a survive or die measure. It measures what it takes to really have the minimal American Dream. It’s what every American would have if our country met its Social Contract with working Americans.
According to the report, a single worker needs an income of $30,012 a year — or just above $14 an hour — to cover basic expenses and save for retirement and emergencies. That is close to three times the 2010 national poverty level of $10,830 for a single person, and nearly twice the federal minimum wage of $7.25 an hour.
A single worker with two young children needs an annual income of $57,756, or just over $27 an hour, to attain economic stability, and a family with two working parents and two young children needs to earn $67,920 a year, or about $16 an hour per worker.
That compares with the national poverty level of $22,050 for a family of four. The most recent data from the Census Bureau found that 14.3 percent of Americans were living below the poverty line in 2009.
Wider Opportunities and its consulting partners saw a need for an index that would indicate how much families need to earn if, for example, they want to save for their children’s college education or for a down payment on a home.
So, we’re talking a minimal, humble “American Dream” which, again, is what we’ve been promised for our hard work. This dream does comes from hard work and not some one’s daddy’s trust fund like the Koch Brothers or Paris Hilton. These people work . More and more, working does not pay for them and it is creating problems for us all. The most disenfranchised are workers who have not completed high school and have no training. The recession has only made this worse and the recovery does not appear to be bringing anything better. Still, I hear nothing about helping these people prepare and find work.
We have no discussions about what it means to be working and poor in America. I hear only about cutting budgets. We’d have never won World War 2 with that attitude. If they’d have worried about the debt left to me and my generation, we’d have a completely different world right now. That appears to be what they want to leave to our children. We are building a world where the Social Contract for the American Dream is broken and no one wants to pay to get it fixed.
For some of the least educated, Mr. Waldman fears that even low wages are out of reach. “Given the needs of a more cognitive and more versatile labor force,” he said, “I’m afraid that those that don’t have the education are going to be part of a structural unemployment story.”
Even for those who do get jobs, it may be hard to live without public services, say nonprofit groups that assist low-income workers. “Politicians are so worried about fraud and abuse,” said Carol Goertzel, president of PathWays PA, a nonprofit that serves families in the Philadelphia region. “But they are not seeing the picture of families who are working but simply not making enough money to support their families, and need public support.”
In New York, Áine Duggan, vice president for research, policy and education at the Food Bank for New York City, estimates that about a third of the group’s clients are working but not earning enough to cover basic needs, much less saving for retirement or an emergency. She said that among households with children and annual incomes of less than $25,000, 83 percent of them would not be able to afford food within three months of losing the family income. That is up from 68 percent in 2008 at the height of the recession.
We have a “Wageless” Recovery. Incomes are only going up at the extreme upper levels. Every one else is losing lifestyle and yet, they are working hard. Employment Policy Research Network (EPRN) researcher Frank Levy of MIT has released a monograph called ‘Addressing the Problems of Stagnant Wages’. (Yes, I know, I actually read these things with relish and print wonky graphs for you on a sunny Sunday afternoon because of some weird inner trait of mine I really can’t name.) Just reading his introduction takes me back to my childhood in Iowa where farmers bought trucks from my dad and I knew everything would be alright if I just went to college and got a degree.
In the three decades after World War II, a central feature of the American economy was a mass upward mobility in which each generation lived better than the last, and workers experienced earnings gains through much of their careers. In short, the American Dream was alive and well. The central drivers of mass upward mobility were real wages for most workers that grew in line with overall labor productivity. Because of rising real wages a 40-year-old male blue-collar worker earned more in the late 1960s than most managers had earned in the late 1940s.
The alignment of wage growth and productivity growth resulted from two main factors: labor markets for most groups of workers in which demand matched supply, and the post-World War II Social Compact that emerged from the Great Depression helped to propogate wage norms throughout the economy, norms that were enforced in part through collective bargaining and professional personnel/human resource management practices.
By the 1980s, both of these factors had reversed. Labor demand increasingly shifted toward more educated workers – particularly well-educated women. At the same time, the post-war Social Compact was challenged by the inflationary 1970s and collapsed in the 1980s. Nothing has emerged to replace it.
Now, in the absence of a labor market boom like that of 1996-2000, increased labor productivity no longer translates into rising real wages for many groups of workers.
Well, that’s all and fine, but how do we address the problems that we’ve got now? How is it that so many of us can work and do the right thing and still not make ends meet? Well, that’s the policy part of the paper and there are suggestions. The author argues that during the last three decades business and government have broken the Social Contract. He’s got some suggestions. One of them is pretty basic. That would be increasing the High School Graduation rate and trying to get employers to buy into the idea that they must providing training and education opportunities to their workers. If they don’t, then society must offer this as a public good because provision of the good is cheaper than the social costs of not providing the good.
Increasing the number of college graduates requires dealing with two potentially related obstacles. One is the stagnation since the early 1970s in the high school graduation rate at approximately 75 percent.25 The failure to increase the high school graduation rate explains about one-half of the slowdown since the 1970s in the growth in the rate of college completion (Bailey and Dynarski, forthcoming). The other is the weak ability of high school graduates, once in junior college or college, to complete a degree. The historically large college-high school earnings gap has caused a growing fraction of high school graduates to start higher education, but the fraction who complete a bachelor’s degree has increased only modestly for women over the last twenty years and has remained basically flat for men.
There’s also a pretty good discussion of the idea of charters schools and inflicting the competitive charter school model on the education system that follows with some really good questions. Other proposals include making certain that we invest in the jobs and industries of the future even if the private sector isn’t doing their share. There’s also some discussion of how to encourage better labor-management relations and laws but given the demonization of working people–even by working people themselves–the author doesn’t hold much hope for the national discussion that needs to take place on less combative and abusive management practices.
One of the things that I do want to bring up is the role of using the classification “independent contractor” and how it’s allowed businesses to get around paying workers. It is thought to be responsible for a chunk of the wage stagnation and to many of the lost benefits problems leading to the loss of middle class lifestyles. It worries me greatly that many tea party governors are actively trying to dismantle labor laws. They are even trying to get rid of child labor laws so businesses can get access to children under 14 again.
One necessary but far from sufficient requirement for setting and maintaining a floor on wages for hourly workers, and especially for low-wage hourly workers, is that federal and state wage and hour laws are enforced vigorously and as uniformly as possible. Recent studies have shown there are widespread violations of wage and hour laws ranging from failure to pay minimum wages, overtime, required meal and rest breaks, and misclassification of employees as independent contractors. One recent study estimated these types of violations have the effect of lowering wages of affected workers by 15 percent
One of the major themes in the research is on the increased role of the financial markets in the breakdown of the Social Contract. The growth of the finance industry has come with the loss of manufacturing. Not only is this due loss of manufacturing jobs that are now lower paying services jobs, but it has caused incomes to shift from labor to capital. The political power and rise of the financial class has a lot to do with this trend. These people don’t just want ordinary returns on their money. They want extraordinary returns. Squeezing costs is usually the short sighted, short term way to achieve that.
I’d like to close with an interview with Cornel West that encapsulates some of the problems. It’s a little old. I grabbed it from Naked Capitalism; also a place concerned with policies that impact middle class Americans. Listening to the interview made think again about our priorities and our need to enforce the American Dream Social Contract once again. Dr West talks about the experience of poor and working class blacks in this clip, but many of the same things can be applied to any and all poor and working class Americans. I think it’s time we start the discussion. The country’s in trouble when an increasing amount of income comes from shuffling paper between financial institutions and bonuses replace wages for a hard day’s work.
Mega Tax breaks created Current State Budget Problems
Posted: March 30, 2011 Filed under: John Birch Society in Charge, New Orleans, Surreality, The Bonus Class, The Great Recession, unemployment, Voter Ignorance, We are so F'd | Tags: Bobby Jindal's bad tax policy, industrial tax exemptions, Republican governors bankrupt their states with bad tax policies, state tax giveaways to businesses 53 Comments
Because so many manufacturing plants and accompanying good jobs compare new locations with old when companies decided to recapitalize or expand, states feel compelled to become rivals to attract capital investments to their states. This intense rivalry to attract the few major employers left standing in the US economy leads many governors into basically giving away more benefits than the incoming or staying-put businesses became worth to the state and municipalities in the majority of cases. Many of the businesses would have stayed put even were they not given the tax breaks.
There is also a huge stake for these governors in upping their credibility for being able to attract business to the state. It serves many of them well at the ballot box, even when the public is not really aware of what’s been given away to attract a few jobs. Many of the worst offenders are Republican governors where flexing tax hating muscle is more importance than effective governance when heading to the Iowa/New Hampshire test grounds for higher office. The evidence is much clearer in states ruled by Republican governors. A recent study Zach Schiller, research director at Policy Matters Ohio, a liberal government-research group in Cleveland as reported by McClatchey shows how states like Ohio, Louisiana, Texas, Michigan and many others have basically bankrupted the state with business tax giveaways and aggressive tax cuts to the richest of the rich. This has also played out on the federal level. The severe flaws with these tax cuts have become evident as the economy sank during the global financial crisis and federal funds provided during the Obama stimulus have dried up.
Across the country, taxpayers jarred by cuts to government jobs and services are reassessing the risks and costs of a variety of tax reductions, exemptions and credits, and the ideology that drives them. States cut taxes in hopes of spurring economic growth, but in state after state, it hasn’t worked.
There’s no question that mammoth state budget problems resulted largely from falling tax revenues, rising costs and greater demand for state services during the recession. But questionable tax reductions at the state and local level made the budget gaps larger — and resulting spending cuts deeper — than they otherwise would have been in many states.
A 2008 study by Arizona State University found that that state’s structural deficits could be traced to 15 years of tax cuts, mainly income-tax reductions that “were not matched by spending cuts of a commensurate size.”
In Texas, which faces a $27 billion budget deficit over the next two years, about one-third of the shortage stems from a 2006 property tax reduction that was linked to an underperforming business tax.
In Louisiana, lawmakers essentially passed the largest tax cut in state history by rolling back an income-tax hike for high earners in 2007 and again in 2008.
Without those tax reductions, Louisiana wouldn’t have had a budget deficit in fiscal year 2010, the 2011 deficit would’ve been 50 percent less and the 2012 deficit of $1.6 billion would be reduced by about one-third, said Edward Ashworth, the director of the Louisiana Budget Project, a watchdog group.
The original source of all this tax cutting madness can probably be traced to California and the infamous Proposition 13. Prior to Prop 13, California was a state in an enviable position with wonderful, low cost schools and infrastructure that was the symbol of US modernity. The Reagan roll backs of taxes and passage of increased write offs for investment to stimulate capital investments provided similar short term boosts that have led to long term problems.
Before California’s Proposition 13 triggered a nationwide tax-cut revolt in the late 1970s, state and local taxes accounted for nearly 13 percent of personal income in 1972, Bartik said. By 2007, it was 11 percent.
State corporate income taxes have fallen as well. Once nearly 10 percent of all state tax revenue in the late ’70s, they accounted for only 5.4 percent in 2010.
“It’s a dying tax, killed off by thousands of credits, deductions, abatements and incentive packages,” according to 2010 congressional testimony by Joseph Henchman, the director of state projects at the Tax Foundation, a conservative tax-research center.
Even now, as states struggle to provide basic services and ponder job cuts that threaten their economic recovery, at least seven governors in states with budget deficits have called for or enacted large tax reductions, mainly for businesses.
Even now, both the President and members of both parties are talking corporate tax cuts when many households pay more in taxes to the IRS than the biggest of the multinationals. Here’s a article in Forbes from last year showing how GE and other major corporations that live off of federal contracts also manage to avoid federal tax obligations. Exxon-Mobile and Walmart are also tax avoiders. You can go read the details but I sought out this old article for this tidbit so you know why a lot of them can get away with paying so few taxes.
But it’s the tax benefit of overseas operations that is the biggest reason why multinationals end up with lower tax rates than the rest of us. It only makes sense that multinationals “put costs in high-tax countries and profits in low-tax countries,” says Scott Hodge, president of the Tax Foundation. Those low-tax countries are almost anywhere but the U.S. “When you add in state taxes, the U.S. has the highest tax burden among industrialized countries,” says Hodge. In contrast, China’s rate is just 25%; Ireland’s is 12.5%.
Corporations are getting smarter, not just about doing more business in low-tax countries, but in moving their more valuable assets there as well. That means setting up overseas subsidiaries, then transferring to them ownership of long-lived, often intangible but highly profitable assets, like patents and software.
The President is correct in that if we lowered the overall tax rate on corporations, these companies would be less likely to relocate overseas to a certain extent. This would have to be coupled with closing the loopholes that allow them to avoid many taxes. Right now, the loopholes make the effective corporate tax rate different from the published. This would be a gargantuan task as each congressman and senator has a business they protect with all their might. Even Democrats in Louisiana protect the oil and gas industry, as an example.
The odd thing about the problems with the state and all these tax giveaways to businesses is that their tax rates are a minor decision variable so giving them tax breaks doesn’t provide business much benefit but hurts the state. When I worked as a consultant to the Department of Economic Development in Nebraska back in the 80s, I found that what a lot of corporations actually looked for in business site were good schools, good recreational facilities, and just basically a great place to live. Omaha frequently lost out to many bids because it was considered a pretty boring place to live with few recreational opportunities. The weather was frequently one reason no one wanted to move there. It had no major sports teams for one. So, why are these governors gutting school budgets and public works programs when the same things that benefit the people in the state attract businesses to the area? I will never understand that one.
Many of the new tea party governors are cutting taxes like never before assuming that just giving away tax breaks will appease any potential business leaders and possible attract some new ones. This faith-based tax policy is based more on ideology than any actual data that shows tax breaks do any of that.
Business tax reductions may be overrated as an economic stimulus because they’re so low on the totem pole of expenses. For most businesses, the cost of labor is probably 15 times the cost of all state and local taxes, said Bartik of the Upjohn Institute.
In his own research, Bartik found that a 10 percent across-the-board cut in state and local business taxes might boost employment by 2 percent, but it could take up to 20 years.
“Most studies indicate you might get 30 percent of the effect after five years and maybe 60 percent after 10 years,” Bartik said. “It takes a while because investment decisions are quite lagged and take place gradually.”
Compounding Ohio’s budget woes are 128 state tax exemptions, credits and deductions that drain more than $7 billion a year in would-be revenue. These loopholes make Ohio miss out on one of every four dollars it would otherwise collect in taxes, said Schiller of Policy Matters Ohio.
In Missouri, business and individual tax credits cost the state $521.5 million in fiscal year 2010, compared with $103 million in 1998, according to a state report.
Louisiana’s 441 individual and corporate tax breaks cost the state $7.1 billion last year. That nearly matches the $7.7 billion that all state and local taxes brought in.
Some of the breaks provide sales-tax exemptions on groceries, prescription drugs and residential utilities that saved Louisiana taxpayers $717 million last year. But another allows Louisiana companies to keep 1 percent of the state sales taxes they collect — about $34 million statewide — just for filing their tax returns on time.
I’ve seen Louisiana go down hill pretty rapidly over the last few years. Roads are in disrepair. The students at the UNO business school actually clean their own classrooms and the building twice a week because the two janitors assigned to the huge 4 story building just can’t keep up with the duty. The unemployment system is a mess with waits of months to get a claim processed and a forced move to the phone and the computer or a 3 hour wait on the phone to actually talk to a person. I wouldn’t recommend any one locate here because just simply getting to a state employee these days is impossible. They’ve adopted the phone tree hell realm model of business. It’s worse than getting customer service from a large bank.
Still, conservative tax cut fanatics still spin their tales of being overtaxed and how the burden is driving business out of the country. Really, it’s not the taxes. Businesses are going overseas because that’s where the money is now. The ASEAN region is seeing a huge increase in middle class consumers. Not so where in the US where wages are stagnant at best. Historical data is showing that these state tax cuts are not only not bringing businesses to the states, but they are driving people away. As I found in my work, companies cannot attract and maintain good employees in states with bad schools, bad roads, horrible crime rates, and lack of basic services and recreation. That’s not what you hear from conservative “experts’ who ignore data to follow their tax cutting muse.
Hodge, a conservative, said that closing loopholes and exemptions was less harmful to the economy than tax increases were. The Tax Foundation supports scaling back or closing tax loopholes, while lowering tax rates across the board.
“My argument to state lawmakers is that lower rates for everybody are better than tax incentives for some,” Hodge said.
That incentive-free philosophy was behind Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder’s call for a flat 6 percent corporate income tax to replace the current business tax system. But Snyder’s flat tax amounts to a $1.5 billion tax cut for businesses, paid for in part by education cuts, personal income tax increases and taxing public and private pensions.
“We think that’s the way to rebuild our state, and to get it on a path toward economic prosperity,” Snyder’s top economic development official, Michael Finney, said during a recent trip to Washington.
History suggests otherwise, however. After the nation recovered from the 1990-91 recession, 43 states made sizable tax cuts from 1994 to 2001 as the economy surged. Twenty-eight states, in fact, reduced their unemployment insurance payroll taxes after 1995.
But states that cut taxes the most ended up with the largest budget shortfalls and higher job losses when the economy slowed again in 2001, according to research by the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.
These are some truly startling conclusions that show just how far we’ve come from using data, economics, and basic accounting to make decisions at even the state level. When governors are ruling multiple important states based on political ideology and faith based economy policies, the country is in real trouble. Some of these folks–like Scott Walker–seem to be true-believers. Bobby Jindal is more of an opportunist than a true believer. His presidential ambitions have led him to make decisions he knows will hurt the state. He’s done nothing but pursue an agenda that will serve his ambitions. I imagine that Rick Perry probably falls into that category too.
It is absolutely necessary that people know that there are direct effects of bad tax policy. It is not only evident in schools, roads, and basic goods in services, it is also evident in the types of people that start leaving your state. Most of the states with these problems are also having population shifts that make them look more like developing nations that countries with mature economies. The more they have tried to set up the rules in favor of businesses doing what they want, the more they lose the types of workers and residents that appreciate and demand good government services. I’ve said this many times, but I had no problem paying my high tax bill in Minnesota because I could see the money put to good use daily in my world class roads, schools, and recreational facilities. I begrudge giving Bobby Jindal a dime because I figure it will only go to enrich people that don’t need anything from me to begin with.
This is a situation that more people need to learn about and discuss. Please take the time to review some of the startling statistics in the McClatchy article. Each state usually has a non-profit group, like Policy Matters Ohio or Louisiana Budget Project, that closely follows these actions. I’d recommend you find the group for your state and become informed. I know most of you aren’t my neighbors, but the LBP has a great report up on how Jindal has basically turned my state into a business subsidy haven that has shown to be the most inefficient in the country. Here you can see directly how these tax give-aways are not producing good results.
According to the most recent report from the Louisiana Board of Commerce and Industry, Industrial Tax Exemptions awarded in 2010 are estimated to cost Louisiana over $946 million over the next ten years. In 2009, Louisiana awarded exemptions worth $745 million and in 2008, over $614 million. That means that over a three-year time span, more than $2.3 billion in potential revenue has been lost in return for the creation of 7,256 potential new jobs.
The most recent report, dated August 2010, identified 592 companies and corporations across the state that qualified for the exemption. These companies employ over 206,128 jobs and created 2,537 new jobs. Louisiana consistently awards these ten-year property tax breaks for dozens of multi-national industrial giants that have little need for state subsidies.
You might at least be interested to see the companies on the list. Most of them are from the oil industry which is of course in a period of incredible profitability and can’t relocate to Orlando or Atlanta even if they wanted to. They are here for our oil. Anyway, I hope this information stimulates a good discussion.
Thank you Sir May I have Another?
Posted: February 16, 2011 Filed under: Team Obama, the blogosphere, The Bonus Class, The Great Recession, The Media SUCKS, the villagers | Tags: David Plouffe, Ken Baer, White House teleconference 20 CommentsWhite House minions Ken Baer and David Plouffe tried the hard sell on a few liberal and progressive bloggers in a teleconference on Monday Night according to Susie Madrak at C&L. Yes, it was yet another access blogger telethon where the White House tries to sell the progressive blogs with all the readership on the way to “Tote dat barge! Lift dat bale!” for the reelection effort and this stinker of a White House Budget. After all, the Republican we have in the White House now will be marginally less evil than the Republican we could get in the White House then if every one doesn’t just bend over and ask for more.
Although the minions said the budget asked for “shared sacrifice’, Plouffe had a difficult time coming up with concrete examples on how the very rich in the country would be doing their share of the sacrificing. The only examples they could provide were less deductions for mortgages and no deductions for charitable giving. I’m sure all the folks relying on charitable giving aren’t thinking the sacrifice part of the deal goes to their rich donors. Do they really think honest liberals will agree with this let alone try to sell it to others?
A conference call with Congressional Budget Office spokesman Ken Baer and White House adviser David Plouffe tonight was probably aimed at growing indignation in the blogosphere over the proposed Obama budget, which features your proverbial draconian cuts to just about every social program — except Social Security and Medicare.
It’s good that the administration is engaging in these calls because we get to hear more details about their budget instead of the usual MSM drone, but I’m not sure that bloggers are happy with the overall conversation since once we got into the details of arguing different cuts, it looked as though we were buying into the White House frame that the cuts were urgently needed in the first place, and many of us don’t believe that’s true.
The audio of the call is in our media player–above. What do you think?
Baer’s opening remarks focused on “shared sacrifice.”
My question: “When you’re talking about shared sacrifice, clearly, the working and middle class is getting a disproportionate slam everywhere they turn with this budget, and you’re talking about a few, what sound like token items to the rest of us out here, and I wonder how you rationalize that during this severe economic recession.”
Baer said people got that impression from the stories that were released early, without looking at the big-budget picture. (Click here.)
David Dayen at FDL was also on the call. His post draws similar conclusions. There’s an insane explanation of why the White House version of draconian cuts is better because of the timing of undesirable cuts. It seems straight out of newspeak world. It appears that the White House is still very confused about basic economics and multipliers. They appear to believe that March is an unsafe time for cuts but by October, recessionary budget cuts will be hunky dory.
Didn’t the mess they made of the first opportunity to get a stimulus right teach them anything? Do they really think they can finesse every economic variable to acquiesce to a hope and dream speech at a particular point in time? After all, they’ve done such a bang up job with the labor market already that we still have record rates of long term unemployed and full on market exits. How do you get a president re-elected when the lowest unrealistic unemployment rate you can offer up is around 7.5%? Even the Gipper was getting nervous about a re-election attempt with rates that high. Reagan’s administration switched to massive recapitalization of the military ala Keynesian stimulus to buy a re-election boost.
WTF do these people think we’re smoking over here in our pajama wearing hippy dreamland? The only thing I can figure is that this delay buys enough time to get through an election cycle so that the first wave hits but not the tsunami of recessionary anti-stimulus as the impact multiplies through out the economy. This way, Obamas gets to still happy talk some of the people all of the time about how things are getting better without looking like a complete liar. He also fights off conservative angst about deficit improvement before the next recession takes hold and makes everything much, much worse.
My question was this: Where does the Administration think demand will come from to reverse a three-year demand shortfall if you cut budgets in the immediate term at a time when 14 million people are unemployed, if state budgets show the same contraction, if trade remains in imbalance and if corporations are sitting on $2 trillion in cash? In other words, do you think economy can generate its own demand right now? I added this for Plouffe to give it a political angle: The budget predicts 8.2% unemployment at the end of 2012. No President has ever run for re-election with unemployment over 7.8% since 1948. Do you think it’s worth cutting budgets over the next two years and reducing aggregate demand at a time when 14 million Americans are unemployed, if the political benefit appears to be facing re-election with the highest unemployment in recorded history?
So here was the answer. Plouffe said that the employment estimates, they hope are conservative. (Actually, one criticism of the budget I heard yesterday was that the projections were pretty aggressive and above what CBO projects for the next few years.) He said that there is a lot of positive trajectory in terms of job growth, though not nearly enough, he stressed. He said that the President has said repeatedly that we cannot jeopardize the recovery with the budget, and that it does not have negative effects on the economy in terms of hiring and growth.
I don’t know how he can say that. Simple math indicates that taking $90 billion out of the economy, which this does in the first fiscal year starting in October, would have negative effects. The positive trajectory on job growth, reflected by two consecutive months of reductions in the topline unemployment rate by 0.4%, have not carried with it actual hiring growth, and could be attributed to noise in the data and rejiggering of population statistics. So when you’re talking about actual job growth, not many economists see it yet. And sucking money out of the economy when states are contracting and businesses aren’t spending will necessarily reduce that hiring.
This is when Ken Baer stepped in. And his answer was baffling. He said that the President’s budget covered Fiscal Year 2012, which was “a bit away,” and that the budget was constructed so that the cuts wouldn’t go into effect until a little later. Republican cuts from the current budget year will start March 5 if they get their way, and there’s a risk there.
I haven’t seen a complete list of invitees, but my guess is that there wasn’t an economist among them. Yup, it’s a tough life when you join the league of uncommon bloggers.










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