Countdown to SOTU

He shall from time to time give to the Congress Information of the State of the Union, and recommend to their Consideration such Measures as he shall judge necessary and expedient; he may, on extraordinary Occasions, convene both Houses, or either of them, and in Case of Disagreement between them, with Respect to the Time of Adjournment, he may adjourn them to such Time as he shall think proper; he shall receive Ambassadors and other public Ministers; he shall take Care that the Laws be faithfully executed, and shall Commission all the Officers of the United States.

We’re going to be live blogging the SOTU address to night so be sure to join us.   However, dribs and drabs of SOTU preview are hitting the media channels already.  It’s probably good to do a round up of them before we settle in with our popcorn and disappointment.

ABC’s Jake Tapper is part of the White House entourage. Here’s a list of things he has that will be covered tonight by President Obama.

Pursuing a path of deficit reduction and government reform, President Obama will tonight in his State of the Union address call for a ban on earmarks and he will propose a five year budget freeze on non-security related discretionary spending, ABC News has learned.

The proposals come as the president prepares to tackle the deficit and debt and as he faces a House of Representatives in Republican hands, many of whose members include those affiliated with the Tea Party who may be willing to embrace both moves.

The president will propose some new spending in certain areas that address the speech’s theme of “How We Win the Future”: innovation, education and infrastructure. But those increases will be proposed within the context of a proposed partial budget freeze.

In other words, the President’s State of the Union address will embrace the politically expedient while denying the obvious.  Our country has a severe lack of critical mass of buyers with incomes to support their own discretionary spending.  We also have levels of unacceptable unemployment all over this country which means less taxes and more outlays.  To not specifically address what we know from 70 years of economic theory directly and continue living in a Reagan-like stupor over what really drives things like jobs and GDP growth is just morally reprehensible for any educated person in a leadership position.  Look at that picture up there.  There appears to be a huge group of them.

Earmarks aren’t a huge deal as I’ve showed in post after post on the actual numbers of the budget deficit. They make up less than 1 percent. That’s a political potato chip and no one seems to be able to eat just one. No wonder all the economists left the west wing and have been replaced by investment banker/lawyers. You can only fight an uphill right wing meme so long coming from a Democratic President.

ABC has a SOTU primer up that gives some history and sets some expectations. They believe that POTUS will make hay of the productive lame duck session.

While the election was heated, there has been a move since to tamp down the rhetoric and move toward bipartisan solutions. The lame-duck period after the election was particularly productive as Democrats and a few Republicans passed a number of bills before Republicans took control of the House this month.

Obama will likely point to this period as the way government should work. Obama will likely point to this period as the way government should work. Republicans grumbled at the time that Democrats took advantage of the lame-duck session, passing legislation before Republicans officially took control of the House in January.

If there is a possibility to get some infrastructure spending through at any meaningful level, then I could experience a little sense of relief.  TPM believes that even some key Republicans will go along with that type of spending. Of course, that actually is a bit of an earmark isn’t it?  Doesn’t every congressperson want their share of road funds or that new airport?  How these get chosen and funded might just mean we see more earmarks in reality.  However, any government spending that increases demand and spurs jobs at this point is preferable to none.  I’d even take a few bridges to no where at this point.

One area the Republican party’s anti-spending crusade puts them in a bind is infrastructure spending. Repairing roads and bridges, modernization, etc. have historically been bipartisan priorities — but they’ve also always cost a lot of money.

Ask Republicans whether they want to include transportation infrastructure in their calls for broad spending cuts, and you don’t get a very specific answer.

“We’ve got to learn how to prioritize and do more with less in all areas of government,” said House Majority Leader Eric Cantor at his weekly press conference today. “It just is what it is. In the terms of transportation, we’ve got to figure out ways how to leverage dollars, how to come up with innovative ways to address the nation’s ailing transportation infrastructure.”

The biggest problem getting these through congress will have to do with the Federal Accounting system as much as anything.  You see, the government doesn’t depreciate or amortize things like battleships and dams.  Expenditures are fully expensed so in terms of the budget deficit, things will get worse in the short term. This means there has to be a cease fire on the ‘size’ of the deficit on these kinds of items.  Their benefits last for years.  They create do create jobs and jobbers.  The problem is they are an upfront cost and we live in a world of political football rhetoric that includes deliberate misunderstanding of economics as well as economics deniers.

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Potential Republican Presidential Contenders 101

Just a few items came to light today on future presidential contenders from the Republican Party. (Be afraid. Be very afraid.) Three of them are in the news today for something other than discussion concerning ramped up rhetoric.

First up, Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty makes a pledge to repeal DADT. In this video, Pawlenty self identified as a ‘social conservative’ to right wing talk show host and spokesjerk for the American Family Association Bryan Fischer. Bryan Fischer is a well known for his hate speech and “openly hostile bigotry against gays, Muslims, and all those who do not share his radical worldview”.  The video and article come via People For The American Way.

Pay attention closely or read the transcript because you’ll hear Pawlenty use all the code words like “strict constructionist” for a discussion of Roe v. Wade.  If you are not familiar with the winks and nods that extreme right wing candidates use to signal how extreme they really are to their key constituencies, you really should take the time to learn.

The Grand Forks Herald announces the governor is undecided but is just touring around promoting his book.  Does any one else see a theme here? Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal and former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin have also been touring around the country fund raising and getting some face time using book tours. I am definitely sensing a theme here.  Pawlenty says his book highlight his ‘faith’. He has a blue collar upbringing and has republican populists roots like Palin and would have to fight Huckabee and Palin for the religious right/’Reagan Democrat’ crowd.

Little known compared to rivals Mitt Romney, Sarah Palin, Newt Gingrich and others, Pawlenty uses the book to trace a path from a boyhood handling rotten meat in a stockyards town to a political career that made him a vice presidential contender in 2008.

And Pawlenty, who was raised Catholic and later converted to an evangelical church with Baptist roots, heavily emphasizes religion. It’s befitting a book from Christian publisher Tyndale House Publishers and a possible political calculation for someone sizing up a White House bid since ruling out a third term as governor.

Social conservatives have an outsized voice in the GOP nominating process, especially in Iowa, where Pawlenty has focused much of his campaign-building work.

An entrance poll done during the 2008 Iowa caucuses found that more than half of the Republicans who turned out described themselves as evangelical Christians, and more than eight in 10 of caucus winner Mike Huckabee‘s supporters described themselves as born again or evangelical.

I’m sensing we’re going to get heavily doused with that old time religion as we get closer to the Iowa primaries.  Can some one hand these people a copy of the constitution and tell them to stop skipping number 1 in favor of number 2?

Another possible Republican candidate is the corporate ex-CEO of the pizza chain Godfather’s. I used to hang out on Fridays afternoons with the University of Nebraska’s University Women’s Action Group at Godfather’s when it was the second location of two pizza parlors run by one man.  Herman Caine  now lives in Georgia and is a popular talk show host.  (Do all of these right wingers eventually do a stint as talk show hosts?)

The announcement came on his website, where Cain wrote:

“The American Dream is under attack. In fact, a recent survey found 67% of the American People believe America is headed in the wrong direction. Sadly, this comes as no surprise to those of us who have watched an out-of-control federal government that spends recklessly, taxes too much and oversteps its Constitutional limits far too often.”

Cain, an African-American Republican, holds a master’s degree in computer science from Purdue University and was a corporate vice president for Burger King before running Godfather’s Pizza. Previously, he served as chairman of the board of directors for the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City — and was chairman of the board for the National Restaurant Association.

Caine has been omnipresent in Republican Fund raising.  Does he have an appeal outside the business base?  That will be a big question.  He’s got far more gravitas than most of the other Republicans that are running since he’s always held a job outside of politics.  Folk are implying that he may have a solid base in the conservative blogosphere.  Frankly, I think he’d be a formidable candidate.  I’ve heard him talk back when he took over Godfather’s and back in his Fed Days too.   Those were business talks but he knows his stuff.

But though Cain has himself admitted that he would be a “dark horse” candidate, he will be greatly aided by the fact that he is a full-spectrum conservative with solid fiscal and social credentials. Christian conservatives love him, and The Club for Growth endorsed him for Senate in 2004. Cain is also close with fiscal conservative and two-time presidential candidate Steve Forbes. Depending on the field, there is great potential for him to rally conservative activists and bloggers to his cause.

For months now, Cain has been rumored to be seriously considering a presidential run. Perhaps not coincidentally, RedState’s Erick Erickson recently announced the launch of a new radio show, “The Erick Erickson Show” on Atlanta’s WBS radio — a station which also broadcasts Cain’s popular radio show.

Finally, we’re seeing Romney solidifying his campaign to move the helmet hair tradition of the Richie Rich side of Republican party forward in this RCP piece.  He’s hiring staff.

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has secured both a pollster and a political director for his near-certain presidential bid this coming cycle, according to sources connected to Romney’s 2008 presidential effort.

Rich Beeson, a Republican operative who has worked as a political director at the Republican National Committee and was most recently a partner at the voter contact firm FLS Connect, will be Romney’s political director. Beeson has already moved his family to Massachusetts for his new role.

A GOP source who worked against Romney in the last campaign said Beeson was a savvy hire for Romney’s team, as he brings an outsider perspective to Romney’s Boston inner circle.

Romney’s political director for his last bid was Carl Forti, who now has a high-profile job at the Karl Rove and Ed Gillespie GOP group, American Crossroads.

There’s no news up today on Gingrich but you can be assured that ol’ Georgia Bull Dog is up to something.  It’s going to be an interesting few years.