Obama Team Announces TARP Plan: Market Crashes

I hope you weren’t planning on using any of those savings that you may still have left sitting out there in anything market-related soon.  The Dow Jones ( at this writing) is off  over 350 points.  All of the blue chip components tumbled.  The S&P and OTC markets aren’t faring any better.  This is how Market Watch sees it right now:

The recent strength shown by U.S. stocks vanished on Tuesday as the government unveiled a new bank-rescue plan and congressional action neared on a fresh round of fiscal stimulus for the wheezing U.S. economy.

That basically amounts to a reaction of last night’s speechification and presser and this morning’s announcement of  thunderous boos.   Fed Chair Ben Bernanke is speaking right now and that’s not really helping either.  The investment/business community doesn’t think any of the largess from either the TARP or the Stimulus Plan are really going to do anything.    Treasury Bond prices are dropping also.    This additional snippet from Market Watch sums it up well.

“First, we’re going to require banking institutions to go through a carefully designed comprehensive stress test, to use the medical term. We want their balance sheets cleaner, and stronger. And we are going to help this process by providing a new program of capital support for those institutions which need it,” said Geithner.
Despite the forceful words, Geithner noted his office was still exploring options and details for an asset value program, with little answer on what to do about banks’ toxic assets.

That last paragraph is basically at the crux of the problem.  The current administration is bringing no plan to the table to actually deal with the problem.  Perhaps because Geithner was so instrumental in the original TARP, he’s just sticking with what already didn’t work rather than trying to think outside of the box.  The market has lost around 3-4% already and there’s several more hours of trading to go.  Hang on to your cookie jars kids, you’re going to need them as a stable replacement for your local bank.

Meanwhile, the senate managed to pass that the stimulus bill 61-37.  That’s way shy of the 80 votes that Obama had wanted. The final bill has $838 billion worth of stuff that includes a lot of tax cuts (not likely to stimulate anything but Grover Norquist and The Club for Growth) and money for cash strapped states.   I’ve brought up links to the Economic Policy Institute earlier but I really like this graph that even my freshmen could grasp about what works and doesn’t work in stimulus plans.

20081022snapshot600 You can see the difference between the items where you get more bang than a buck and less than a buck’s worth of bang while contributing to the deficit.   Notice those tax cuts that wind up costing more than they stimulate and think the last eight years of Dubya of which we seem to be repeating.

Here’s one that I picked up from Brad DeLong’s Grasping Reality with Both Hands that had my Freshman gasping as I was trying to set their hair afire.  (I think it worked, btw.)  Any one facing this job market should panic.  Just anecdotal, but in the market for  finance professors, this year universities were taking resumes only at the last two conferences.  Last year, the best people had been hired up before either of the conferences were held and only the marginal remained.  The hottest academic jobs are definitely on hold.  In my years of both public and private sector economisting, I’ve NEVER seen anything like this.

20090209-pkgam89m1f8sm71rtic1e6i1ajrenderPlease notice the incredible level of job losses.  If you’ve managed to get through a calculus course, you’ll see that the first, second and third derivatives are negative which is not true on the other series at similar points.  Basically, for you nonmath types, this indicates nothing but a downward trend or as I like to put it, straight off a cliff.

So, President Obama rambled an economics lecture last night that made me happy that he was getting all those economics briefings.   It was also pretty obvious that most of his advisers must have their hair on fire too, because he did have a sense of edgy panic when he talked about the situation.  However, ‘edgy panic’ is not what I want in a president.  I want a president to talk about we have nothing to fear but fear itself who then says something to the effect of  let’s do  what works instead of bargaining away what will with folks that aren’t interested in watching you succeed.

I have to say, last night over Margaritas with my neighbors, I was searching for folks that wanted to diversify their food options with neighborhood gardening.  I had a lot of takers.  After all, when the army and your police force spend a good amount of time and money flying sleek black helicopters around the skies of your city practicing for food riots, it’s kind of one of those wake up moments. That goes for sleepy freshmen and drunk Cajuns.  Is your hair on fire yet?  Because if it isn’t, you haven’t been listening.

Meanwhile, I’m adding a page to my own blog for sharing sustainability and survival stories.  Feel free to visit and contribute.


Enabling the Damned: TARP Redux

pigs-playing-pokerWell, tax payer rip-off, part deux will be officially announced on Monday according to the New York Times.

Officials hope that that part of the plan is not labeled a “bad bank” administered by the government, although they expect that some might call it that.

No matter what it is called, the government would assume some of the risk of declining assets at the heart of the economic crisis. But by relying on a combination of private investors and government guarantees, the administration hopes to reduce its exposure to losses and avoid the problem of having to place a value on assets that the institutions have been unable to sell.

I’m not even sure where to start other than there probably is some law somewhere against being an accomplice to robbery and we should send out a sheriff with an arrest warrant fast!

The banking plan will involve a close review of financial institutions, possibly including a so-called stress test to measure whether they have enough resources to weather a continued economic decline. It will also enable the government, when it provides a new round of investment, to convert the warrants for preferred stock it has already received from many institutions into common stock. The move, which essentially would swap debt for equity, would help relieve the balance sheets of those institutions, although it would also hurt other existing shareholders by diluting their common stock.

Lawmakers said they were told that Mr. Geithner would not spell out the details of much of the program next week, including how the government would use more than $50 billion from that program to help homeowners facing foreclosure.

Notice the priorities.  We give more to the banks FIRST, THEN we get around to the homeowners facing foreclosure.  I’ve said this time and again, but it bears repeating.  Without establishing a bottom to asset prices, none of this will do ANY good.  Asset prices include those of homes AND all those fancy derivatives surrounding them.

The plan appears to try to deal with excessive executive compensation and bonuses but does not have any teeth that would force banks to loan the money.  They can still recapitalize or purchases other banks which they most likely will do while there is still no bottom to asset prices.

For weeks, administration officials have been exploring several alternatives for reducing the wave of foreclosures. One proposal involves Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the mortgage finance companies now under government control, to help further stabilize the housing markets by providing guarantees on low-rate mortgages.

Another proposal, said to be favored by Lawrence H. Summers, the senior White House economic official, would provide incentives to entice investors in pools of mortgages — and the companies that service mortgages — to refinance troubled home loans.

Now this is more intriguing, but again, why entice and incent people that you’re basically throwing money at?  MANDATE it!   Provide the guarantees on the mortgages and make them refinance the homes!  While your at it, make them hold on to the assets they we fund rather than trying to palm crap loans off on the secondary market.  If the wind up with Fannie or Freddie, we’re just giving them the money, and they’re sending us more NEW crap.  Make them give loans they have to hold on to!  That’ll send them to a crash course in Underwriting 101.  Give loans to people that can afford them.  Don’t overloan to speculators.  Don’t loan based on thinking you can pass the trash!  Giving them no cost capital basically allows them to take on even more risk.  Without setting some boundaries, this is essentially an act of robbery!  I wouldn’t buy their stocks under these conditions so why am I being forced to fund convertible warrents for them?  Maybe it’s because Penny Pritzker and the worst of the worst were sitting on Obama’s finance committee when he was running for office and now have cushy positions on his economic advisory board.   What say you?

Oh, and one more thing … not that these banks donated money to campaigns (guess whose?) and paid huge sums for the inauguration bash, NOW we see restrictions on lobbying.

This week’s new restrictions on executive pay and last week’s announcement of new lobbying rules that banks and other groups seeking assistance must follow have been part of the effort by the Obama administration to restore credibility to the program and regain support in Congress. That effort will be essential if the administration returns to Congress for more money.

I guess it takes a pig to create a pig in a poke these days.   I’m going to have to look into selling pork bellies short.  I have a feeling there’s a ton of them about to hit the market and the fan.


Krugman Gets It Right Again

Two things stuck out in my mind when I finally read the inaugural speech written by Jon “the groper” Favreau. The first was didn’t some one get a fact checker for this kid or at the very least get him a calculator? (Turns out I wasn’t the only one that noticed this one, it hit immediately on the wire at MarketWatch.)

LONDON (MarketWatch) — Less than a minute into his presidency, Barack Obama committed his first gaffe. That’s wrong. Forty-three Americans, including Obama, have taken the oath of office.

The new president of the United States said in his inaugural address that “Forty-four Americans have now taken the presidential oath.”

Then I thought, well that’s nothing new considering how much Obama re-invented all kinds of history and things in the primaries: like we have fifty seven states, a great lake in Oregon, the US army liberated Auschwitz and on and on. But the second one really disturbed me because plagiarizing and paraphrasing great thinkers in a major speech without crediting them is just plain something one should not do. I wasn’t the only one who caught it. Economist and columnist Krugman caught it also. The prez’s economic meme was a wrangled and mangled copy of something the great economist John Maynard Keynes once wrote.

Or consider this statement from Mr. Obama: “Our workers are no less productive than when this crisis began. Our minds are no less inventive, our goods and services no less needed than they were last week or last month or last year. Our capacity remains undiminished. But our time of standing pat, of protecting narrow interests and putting off unpleasant decisions — that time has surely passed.”

The first part of this passage was almost surely intended as a paraphrase of words that John Maynard Keynes wrote as the world was plunging into the Great Depression — and it was a great relief, after decades of knee-jerk denunciations of government, to hear a new president giving a shout-out to Keynes. “The resources of nature and men’s devices,” Keynes wrote, “are just as fertile and productive as they were. The rate of our progress towards solving the material problems of life is not less rapid. We are as capable as before of affording for everyone a high standard of life. … But today we have involved ourselves in a colossal muddle, having blundered in the control of a delicate machine, the working of which we do not understand.”

But something was lost in translation. Mr. Obama and Keynes both assert that we’re failing to make use of our economic capacity. But Keynes’s insight — that we’re in a “muddle” that needs to be fixed — somehow was replaced with standard we’re-all-at-fault, let’s-get-tough-on-ourselves boilerplate.

At least some body in the press didn’t overlook it this time. Krugman caught one more ripped off and just plain wrong idea that I missed. It appears our “new Era of Responsiblity” message came straight from what Dubya called for eight years ago. Oh, dear.

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Party like it’s 1929!

The economy may be in recession, but the Champagne flowed freely at Tuesday’s celebrations of the banker-piginauguration of Barack Obama — thanks in large part to donations from some movers and shakers on Wall Street.

Those figures don’t include the $124 million that federal, state and local governments are providing to pay for security and the official swearing-in ceremony.

The finance, insurance and real-estate industries have been at the center of the recent economic storm, but even so, people who work in those industries contributed at least $7.1 million to help fund the dozens of events and parties celebrating Mr. Obama’s official move into the White House, according to the Center for Responsive Politics, a Washington nonprofit group that studies money and politics.

That is more that a quarter of the $27 million of donations that have been disclosed so far by the Presidential Inauguration Committee, which estimates the festivities will cost about $45 million. That would make it the most expensive inauguration ever.

hooverbuttonThe market is below 8000 and the list of huge layoffs happening in industries around the country continues.  But hey, we got the nation’s most expensive party ever according to today’s New York Times where the headline read:  A Wounded Wall St. Helps Pay for Inauguration Bash.  I’m beginning to sense the fall of the Roman empire with Nero in charge of the chaos.  Of course, the top of the donor list included the the Uber Lord of the Under World, George Soros whose combined family donations came to $250,000.  Given an average family of four in the US doesn’t even live off of $50,000 a year and the total is about the average price of an average home, I’d have to say there are a lot of people being shunted towards Obamaville and other tent cities that would really appreciate a donation of that size for something other than a big party in their honor.

Let’s just highlight reality a moment and forget about the cost of designer ballroom dresses that would feed entire families for months.

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A little too little and maybe a little too late

 As the details of Obamanomics finally roll out to the public, it is increasingly obvious that what we are seeing is some kind of banksy-girlReaganomics lite.  I mentioned this in a post on January 5th trying to answer Paul Krugman’s concerns on how  ‘bold and swift’ the Obama plan will be.   Today, Krugman answered strongly not bold enough in the Obama Gap.

But Mr. Obama’s prescription doesn’t live up to his diagnosis. The economic plan he’s offering isn’t as strong as his language about the economic threat. In fact, it falls well short of what’s needed.”

Today’s Market Watch outlines the abysmal labor market.

Total hours worked in the economy fell 1.1%, with the average workweek falling to the shortest ever, signaling an annualized decline of 6% in gross domestic product in the fourth quarter, wrote John Silvia, chief economist for Wachovia. Hours worked have declined “at an eye-watering” 7.7% annual pace in the quarter, Shepherdson said.

An alternative measure of unemployment that includes workers too discouraged to look for a job rose to 13.5% from 12.6% in November; it’s the highest in the 13 years since those data have been kept.

These are serious numbers that followed the even MORE serious numbers in manufacturing reported earlier in the week.  Rather than repeat what I said earlier, I’d like to show some that I’m not alone out there in the liberal wilderness. Yes, I said LIBERAL wilderness.   The Black Agenda Report which has never been in the Obama corner and endorsed Cynthia McKinney outlines Obama’s hostility to both Universal Health Care and what is traditionally the Democratic Party’s approach to the economy.

In a similar vein, “Obamanomics” at best falls short of the bold progressive initiatives and challenges to financial and corporate power required to spark equitable domestic development. As adjusted in response to the banking crisis and deepening recession, moreover, Obama’s economic program could well amount to “something akin to a national austerity program….” Instead of forward movement on jobs, education, retirement, and health care, Jack Rasmus finds, “what me may well get is ‘Let’s all tighten our belts to get through this crisis.”

Turning away from the op-ed pieces, let’s examine this front page headline from the NY Times: Senate Allies Fault Obama on Stimulus.

WASHINGTON — President-elect Barack Obama’s economic recovery plan ran into crossfire from his own party in Congress on Thursday, suggesting that quick passage of spending programs and tax cuts could require more time and negotiation than Democrats once hoped.

Senate Democrats complained that major components of his plan were not bold enough and urged more focus on creating jobs and rebuilding the nation’s energy infrastructure rather than cutting taxes.

So here we have more evidence that many are beginning to see that the Obama plan is not bold and will not be swift.  Back on MarketWatch, we once again have the winds of cold, harsh reality hitting the face of any one connected to the U.S.  Economy.

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The U.S. recession will last two full years, with gross domestic product falling a cumulative 5%, said Nouriel Roubini, chairman of RGE Monitor. Roubini was one of the first economists to predict the recession and the credit crunch stemming from the housing bubble. For 2009, Roubini predicts GDP will fall 3.4%, with declines in every quarter of the year. The unemployment rate should peak at about 9% in early 2010, he said. Consumer prices will fall about 2% in 2009. Housing prices will probably overshoot, dropping 44% from the peak through mid-2010. “The U.S. economy cannot avoid a severe contraction that has already started and the policy response will have only a limited and delayed effect that will be felt more in 2010 than 2009,”

As we get more and more evidence that Obama’s actions never reach anywhere near the level of his rhetoric, will the koolaide start wearing off even before the President Elect gets to give his first State of the Union Address?  I’m waiting to see if it comes any where near even one of FDR’s minor fireside chats. 

Meanwhile,  Senator Harkin from Iowa, the state where, oddly enough, I attended Herbert Hoover Elementary School had this to say in the Times article today.

“There is only one thing we have got to do in the stimulus, and that is how can we create jobs,” said Senator Tom Harkin, Democrat of Iowa, as he left the meeting. “I am a little concerned by the way that Mr. Summers and others are going at this in that, to me, it still looks like a little more of this trickle-down, if we just put it in at the top, it’s going to trickle down. A number of people in there said, ‘Look, we have got to have programs that actually create jobs and put people to work.’ ”

Okay, did Senator Harkin just call Obamanomics more trickle down economics, voodoo economics, Reaganomics?  Can I get a witness?  Again, it’s very hard to argue for business tax credits when most businesses are just looking for customers.  If you don’t put the money into the hands of customers, a few tax credits here and there aren’t going to accomplish anything.   There has to be income first.

Anyway, is it too early for me to buy an ‘I told You So’ bumper sticker for my poor worn-down mustang yet?

NOTE: For those of you into really snarky satire, there’s a post at today’s Daily Beast about Obama’s package being inadequate.  Also, other blogs are discussing this same topic.  Jane at FDL and even HuffPo have put up threads. The link to FDL is on the right side.  I think you can manage to find the other on your own.