Live Blog/Open Thread: New Hampshire Primary Results
Posted: February 9, 2016 Filed under: U.S. Politics | Tags: Exit Polls, live blog, New Hampshire Primary results, open thread 138 Comments
Here we Go!
New Hampshire is still voting, but the results will be coming in soon. As promised, here’s a fresh thread to discuss the outcomes on both sides, but feel free to discuss anything you wish. This is an open thread. Information is coming in from exit polls.
According to CNN, half of NH voters decided on a candidate in the past couple few days, just as I have been saying all along. CNN reports: Early exit polls: N.H. voters concerned with economy, government.
The early results of the New Hampshire exit polls find a Republican race centered on discontent with both the federal government and the Republican Party, where voters’ preferences remained unsettled until the final days of the contest.
Nearly half of GOP voters interviewed as they left their polling places around New Hampshire Tuesday said they didn’t make a final decision about whom to support until the last few days, and about two-thirds said recent debates were important to their choice.
Republican voters expressed deep worries about both the economy (three-quarters were very worried) and the threat of terrorism (6-in-10 very worried). About 9-in-10 said they were dissatisfied with the federal government, including about 4-in-10 who were angry about the way it was working. And for many, the dissatisfaction extends to the GOP itself. Half said they felt betrayed by politicians from the Republican Party, and about the same share said they wanted the next president to be from outside the political establishment.
Though Democrats voting on Tuesday were less apt to say they felt betrayed by their party or to express anger with the federal government, about three-quarters said they were worried about the economy. About 4-in-10 said they thought life for the next generation of Americans would be worse than life today, and 9-in-10 said they thought the nation’s economy favored the wealthy.
Still, Democrats who went to the polls Tuesday — to vote in a race featuring two seasoned politicians — were more apt than Republicans to say they wanted the next president to have experience in politics, only about one-quarter said they preferred a president from outside the political establishment.
Only about one-quarter of Democrats said they made up their minds in the final days of the contest, well below the share of Republicans deciding late.
It also appears that independents have tended to vote Republican, which makes sense. It is more of a horse race than the Democratic side where Sanders has for some time been predicted to win handily.
NBC News: New Hampshire Exit Poll Results: Independent Voter Participation.
Early exit poll results show that 42 percent of Republican primary voters in this year’s race consider themselves to be political independents, and a similar 39 percent of voters in the Democratic primary think of themselves as independents.
In 2008, the last time both parties had an open nomination contest, slightly more voters in the Democratic primary (44 percent) identified themselves as independents than did voters in the Republican primary (37 percent).
In 2000, the share of independents in each primary was fairly comparable, just like this year — 40 percent in the Democratic primary and 41 percent in the Republican race.
The LA Times has a different take: The independent, all-knowing New Hampshire voter and other election myths.
While voters in other states are accustomed to receiving a certain level of puffery, the New Hampshire voter is put on a pedestal that would make a Nobel laureate jealous….
“While there is a kernel of truth to many aspects of this caricature, it is primarily a myth,” write David Moore and Andrew E. Smith, a pair of University of New Hampshire professors who may not be invited to many more faculty teas.
Moore, a former senior editor of Gallup Poll and founder of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, and Smith, a pollster who directs the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, lay out their case in a chapter of “The First Primary: New Hampshire’s Outsize Role in Presidential Politics,” released late last year, just in time to take all the joy from the primary season.
Their biggest beef is with the so-called independence of the New Hampshire voter. Though about 44% of the state’s residents are registered “undeclared,” only 15% actually call themselves independent in polls. They blame journalists for confusing the term “independent” with “undeclared,” a status many voters take either to avoid being identified publicly as a partisan or so they can vote in whichever party’s primary is most competitive.
But these undeclared voters may not have the impact they are credited with because they tend to show up at the polls less often than registered partisans.
The idea that independent voters can swing a primary election is also overstated, the authors conclude. Exit polls consistently show that candidates never win the top spot in their primaries without garnering the most support from registered members of their own parties.
And there is little evidence supporting the theory that undeclared voters use the open primary system to cause mischief by supporting a dolt in the party they most dislike.
Mediaite has suggestions for live-streamng the results: How to Watch the New Hampshire Primary Results Live Stream Online.
I guess I’ll watch MSNBC unless it gets too unbearable. How do you plan to follow the results?
Again, use the comment thread to discuss the NH primary or any other topic that interests you. Frankly, I’ll be glad when we move on to Nevada and South Carolina.
Have fun!
peej
Carissa
bostonboomer
ecocatwoman
mablue2
peggysue22
quixote
skydancingguestblogger
Mona (aka Wonk the Vote)
Sky Dancing 
What are you hearing? I haven’t been watching TV, but I’m putting it on now.
High turnout so that’s pretty interesting.
On both sides, do you know?
They also announced how many independents requested Republican ballots …right around 40%
That’s interesting. I heard they were voting mostly GOP.
Poll closing results at top of hour
And there’s huge lines inside and out … Sec of state talking to state AG .
.. They have no idea how long traffic lines are and they sent troopers to find out. Some thought if new voter ID or just strong voting but there are lots of new registrations on site.
My daughter-in-law said they waited about 20 minutes just to get into the parking lot and then had another loooong wait to actually vote.
I’ll be checking in with you and the blog. Or following the NYTs. Since I’ve paid for the subscription. Lol.
Tonight on TCM, they are showing Caberet and Barry Lindon.
Good. Enjoy the movies and occasionally check in if you can.
OK, I can’t watch Brian Williams and Rachel Maddow. I might have to stick to CNN with the sound off and Twitter.
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66% of NH GOP voters support banning Muslims from entering US.
What poll is that? That’s like wow.
Chuck Todd Meet the press……….ugly shit right there.
I’m sorry to be a downer, but everyone should brace themselves.The next two-and-a-half weeks are going to be very aggravating for Clinton supporters, although things should brighten considerably once South Carolina is over.
No matter how small Sanders’ margin of victory in New Hampshire, the press is going to portray it as a horrible, devastating loss for Clinton. The likes of Andrea Mitchell and Kristen Welker will be all but saying that Clinton and her staff should put themselves out of their misery and commit suicide. Nasty, tendentious commentary about Bill Clinton in South Carolina eight years ago will become the defining feature of the news until that state votes.
The Nevada caucuses will not be a respite. Cable news somehow managed to almost completely avoid coverage of the Super Bowl. Instead of game hype, everything was the New Hampshire primary campaign. I wouldn’t have believed it if I hadn’t seen it. Nevada is a weekend caucus, which invites fleeting coverage. MSNBC will be rerunning their prison shows rather than cover a Clinton victory, and the other stations won’t be much better.
But things will get better quickly once the South Carolina polls close. A lopsided Clinton victory is to be expected, and whitebread college-town Dem electorates a la Iowa and New Hampshire won’t be center stage for the rest of the primary season. Sanders doesn’t have much appeal outside that demographic, and Clinton should clean up.
I also note that Sanders is already behind in his pledged-delegate targets, which bodes badly for him. He needed at least 31 delegates from Iowa to stay on track, and he only got 20. As it stands right now, he could win every delegate in New Hampshire–which he won’t–and still be behind the curve. Clinton is ahead, no matter how the press portrays things.
Some things to keep in mind, both good and bad.
Good post, and I agree.
Nevada’s TV programming has been horrible forever. FB is the answer.
And going into the maw, Topix.
8 delegates for Hillary?
Do you really think Sanders can Nevada? I don’t.
I don’t think so, when I look at the people on stage in NH, they are all WHITE.
The found 3 black men to plant right behind the podium though.
Did you read the article where Rubio’s staff were involved in racial profiling of the only three blacks at his NH event?
Thank goodness he’s a goner.
I think Clinton will win Nevada handily. I just don’t think the press will cover it any more than they absolutely have to.
Listen with that Republican poll of 66% supporting Trump (walls and all), means some Latinos are going to jack it up for Hillary. I hope so, LaRaza and Delores Huerta endorse Hillary.
Totally agree.
Agree.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/2016-election-results/new-hampshire/?hpid=hp_hp-desktop-only-chain_nh-map-desktop-results%3Aelections-2016%2Fstate-single
We are around 8% reporting for Carroll and Coos Co. 60-32, Sanders, 24.3% each Cruz, Kasich, and Trump, Christie and 8.1% and 5.4% Bush.
Oh, and a pig tried to vote.
Coos co 24% reporting for Dems, 68.5% Sanders-27.4 Clinton. RNC, 16% reporting a change. 32.9% Trump-21% Kasich.
Total reporting is only 1%, so, plenty of time to wring our hands and plan the next move.
Hillsborough Co 2% reporting, Sanders 58.3-Clinton38.3
Now 10.2%, 52.4% Sanders-Clinton 46.8%, 7.9% Trump at 27.3%
Kasich is catching up to Trump 26.5-25%
Wow, Kasich is happy as hell.
I think so too.
16% reporting 47.5% Sanders-37.5% Clinton, 35.8 Trump, 13.8% Kasich
Merrimack Co 5.3% 56.7% Sanders-42.1% Clinton, 33% Trump
Now 10% and 52.4% Sanders-46.8 Clinton, 31% Trump
29% reporting 56.5% Sanders-42.9% Clinton
Rockingham Co, 2.4% reporting 56.8% Sanders-41.7% Clinton
Trump 32.5%-19.6% Kasich
Grafton Co. 2.4% Reporting 68.6% Sanders-31.4 % Clinton
RNC 7.6 % reporting Kaisich 24.8 over took Trump 23.9%
Trump is back to 24.3%-21.6% Kasich
“the outsiders took the hill”……………….blame it on Obama.
How they can call Sanders an outsider is beyond me.
I know he’s been in politics 40 years, and 25 years in congress. We expect to hear some stupid crap from the media tonight.
Maybe it has to do with constant complaining by the Democrats that Sanders isn’t a Democrat.
They have been on the left so long, they didn’t realize the revolution passed them by.
LOL!
Sullivan Co 5.9% reporting, 77% Sanders-21.6% Clinton
Belkap Co 6.3% reporting, 70% Sanders-21.6% Clinton, 38.% Trump, then Rubio then Kasich. I would say a lot of the early voters skewed angry.
Here is what happens on March 1: scroll down to nomination calendar & delegate counts:
https://ballotpedia.org/Important_dates_in_the_2016_presidential_race
Right now its all Sanders at 56.2-41.7 Clinton, and Trump 33.9-16.3 Kasich
12% reporting
Did you see the stats more very liberal people voting for him, more gun owners voting for him, and 72% independents voting for him.
That does sound like Republicans could have crossed over. Independents tend to be more conservative.
It looks like gun owners may have crossed over to vote for Bernie.
I have never seen so many fucking stupid voters in my life! Tomorrow I hope more people donate to Mom’s Demand Action for Gun Sense, and the Coalition to Stop Gun Violence, and get on board with Hillary.
I think that tells us a lot about the NH voters in the Dem primary. It is after all, an open primary state so I’m thinking that Republicans cross over to disrupt the Dems. That could be why Clinton had that surprise win in ’08 because the racists wanted to vote against Obama. Just speculating but it is interesting to think about. NH residents have had mostly white men and certainly only white male frontrunners to vote for in the past. Things have changed now that we have been having female and black frontrunners.
I think the gun stat in the exit poll indicated cross over vote.
I find it a little premature, to call a win at 14-15%.
Obviously you’re not a media pundit!
(and that is a good thing IMO)
Starting right now, I’m going to forget about New Hampshire and look toward South Carolina, coming up a week from Saturday.
Riverbird, Sanders was expected to do better than he did. He didn’t reach that 60% of vote. Hillary won going in, she has 392 super delegates to his 42. He’ll get a few more tonight, but she will get some, and heading out to Nevada.
Good point, Fannie. Thanks.
We are at 17% DNC, and 57.6% Sanders-40.4% Clinton. I don’t see the rural districts closing enough.
Trump has twice the votes of Kasich at 16.7%
BB: What we were talking about earlier: It’s not 1972 anymore.
View at Medium.com
This woman is arguing we’re actually in a pre-revolutionary situation.
Yes, but the Sanders supporters know nothing about McGovern………Bernie has been talking revolution since 1968…………and he’s got the same ugly face he had then. One difference is we don’t have a liberal congress, and that is tilted, and Bernie says he’s going to have a million people in their faces, demanding change, and replacing them.
I don’t know if this tells the whole story, because he is going to raise taxes.
So, I had never read Talking the Walk (Casselman) and am now. Amnesia and failure to develop a language are discussed.
Sandernistas Revolution……..heard about that back in the day.
I agree that that women’s work is what is left to be finished this century. Part of it is going to necessitate exposing again and breaking with the attitudes fostered by the left that are still entrenched. The future is not paternalistic attitudes of social justice. It’s something we have to envision and do.
There’s something totally great white father about Bernie.
Yes. I heard it many places today. Why wasn’t important to care about free Collage, medicare for all, etc.? Because these things don’t address the inherent discrepancies particular to women. Most women will not go to college and will still be stuck in traditional service jobs at lower wages, Free medicare won’t happen anytime soon, and won’t help poor women stuck in rural areas. Changes to Obamacare could.
And even for college-educated women, there is still discrimination. And the problems with contraception, childcare (or lack thereof), taking time away from work as a caregiver for relatives, lack of representational promotion, and on and on.
Yes.
Wow. And that’s with almost no people of color having voted yet.
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2016/02/hillary_clinton_has_hope_after_grim_new_hampshire_loss.html
he said: “The problem is that, for a critical number of Democrats—both in New Hampshire and throughout the country—this isn’t what counts, or at least, it’s not enough. They want Bernie’s idealism, his integrity, and his urgency.” I think in this run up to last night we saw I chink in the integrity of his campaign.
Strafford Co is finally reporting: 18.5%, 59.1% Sanders-38.3% Clinton. 35.4% Trump Cruz next.
According to Lawrence: We saw history repeating itself, Pres.Clinton, getting angry at the voters, and he’s to blame for her lost.
Malarkey and hogwash.
Makes me sick.
lol. Sanders has been way ahead in NH for months. I’m sick of the haters on MSNBC.
They have truly sold out, and they stoop so low, it’s scary.
What I don’t like about this is how close Trump’s 19,224 votes is to Clinton, at 21,759 votes. With all the other Repugs, he should have fewer votes, but his closest is to Kasich at 9,091 votes.
He has a problem staying on the 30%……range/number. Can’t win with only 30% of republican vote.
I’m still watching the counties but not much is changing at 27.3% Sanders, 57.7%, Clinton 40.4%
31% reporting 58.1% Sanders-39.8% Clinton. RNC 29.7% reporting 33.9% Trump-15.5% Kasich.
Here’s CNN response to her speech: I, I, I, and it’s not working, I is not working so says Cooper Anderson.
Wapo has declared the winners at 36.7% Sanders and Trump.
With the NH delegate split, I think the current is Clinton 392 – Sanders 42. Politico said they’d split the delegates evenly at 13 each.
Now on the NV and SC, then the big one on March 1. I’d like to put him away as fast as possible. It’s time the Democratic base finally got to vote.
Bernie has ad buys for super tuesday states in CO, MN, MA, and OK. 2 caucuses and 2 primaries. What they have in common is they are the whitest states available.
“the whitest states available.” Interesting, that.
The caucus states he can game. We saw that in 2008.
Sanders has already alienated a lot of Nevadans.
I still don’t believe MA will go for Bernie. I could be wrong, I guess; but this is Clinton country.
Hillary ends up getting one more delegate out of NH than Bernie because of superdelegates. LOL
With Kasich at #2 maybe there will be a semi-sane republican in the race to block Trump out.
One good result.
Kasich isn’t moderate. He supports the same crap that Snyder and Walker do. He signed a right-to-work law and draconian anti-abortion laws.
Sigh. Guess there are no moderate Republicans any more.
Well the governor of MA is a moderate Republican, but there aren’t many left except in the Northeast.
Thank you, BB. Kasich is a typical conservative Republican. I’ve lost count of how many anti abortion bills he’s signed since taking office.
He’s in the pockets of ALEC and the Koch bros.
I’d be thinking it would spot on if Hillary went up against Trump.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2016/02/09/supreme-court-halts-obamas-emissions-rule/80085182/
Hillary has his back, and this is another reason why we must gain the WHITE HOUSE. We must.
Guess none of the Supremes deciding against the emissions ruling have pulmonary or heart disease.
Sanders might get his 60%. We are at 47.3% reporting. Sanders has 59.2% with 59,692 votes-Clinton 38.2% with 38,588 votes, Trump, 33.7% with 37,898 votes
Kasich is still second with 16.2% and 18,590 votes.
I have go on an errand, so I’ll sign for now. Have a nice night all!
Good night, Roofingbird. Thanks for all your comments!
Thx!
Yes, you done good roofingbird.
http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/02/after-big-sanders-win-pressure-all-on-clinton.html?mid=twitter_nymag
And it begins
LOL! Ed Kilgore says Bernie won almost every demographic. NH is 1 percent Black!
When did Hillary ever claim to be “inevitable.” Fuck Ed Kilgore.
A win is a win. They’d never say “meaningless” if Sanders won. And in the general election, it’s winner takes all. Forgot about that salient factor, Kilgore.
I wonder if Rubio’s fifth place and 11% (at 83% reporting) means that we finally stop hearing about the “Rubio surge”.
God, I hope so. He should go back to his day job and actually work at it for a change.
I hate this guy: http://billmoyers.com/story/why-we-must-try/
I hate both Robert Reich and Bill Moyers. My cable/wifi went out at 7pm last night so am very late to this thread. Thanks BB and all – I’d really lose it if not for all here. I dare not speak of what I think of the media’s smear job and the ignorant BernieBots – they’re not just bros. Skydancers are my only refuge.
I’m so glad you all are here.
Had the Dnc not pulled that fast one on Hillary in 2008 we’d not be in this situation. If this wasn’t so hard on Hill, I’d be thinking the Dnc made this situation, they deserve to have this mess.
And it is a mess, not a decent Republican on the ballot, and a socialist who knows next to nothing about international affairs running against Hillary. Cheesy!
… and the NH ‘winners’ are Not A Democrat and Not a Republican. We are truly down the rabbit hole!
Yes, isn’t that interesting, jackyt
http://m.motherjones.com/politics/2016/02/chris-christie-suspending-campaign
What, no more Bridgegate jokes? /s Glad Christie’s out of it.
So am I, we NJ taxpayers should sue him for the millions he spent on his campaign and to be paid back the salary he collected as Governor while absent.
I’m glad he’s out, but I’m grateful to him for throwing Rubio off balance at the last debate.
Rubio is staying in but my guess is that Christie cooked his goose. His political career is kaput.
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/rubio-s-whole-career-probably-ended-last-night
Bonus quitter: http://www.thenewcivilrightsmovement.com/davidbadash/breaking_carly_fiorina_quits_gop_presidential_race
Completely OT:
Video at http://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-35538538
Carly Fiorina has lost, packed her bags, and thank God, getting her ass out of this race. How much you want to bet in 24 hours she’ll be working for Fox News!
Her message to the Bernie Girls: Don’t let anybody tell you how to vote!…………..This from the woman who promoted the hate of Planned Parenthood with lies, and lies, about babies being chopped up and sliced up, she should be held accountable for the actions of Robert Lewis Dear.
President Obama speech today was spot on. And yes, he threw a pitch for Hillary! He’s the best, and Hillary is going to move us forward.