Election Day Reads
Posted: November 4, 2014 Filed under: just because 85 Comments
Good Morning!!
Election Day 2014 has finally arrived. Will our fears of a Republican-controlled Senate materialize? The pundits certainly think so, but the voters will have the final say. Let’s see what the so-called “experts” had to say this morning.
From The LA Times, Cheat sheet: 10 states to watch in the battle for the Senate, by Cathleen Decker.
Tuesday’s election brings to an end a multibillion-dollar barrage of promises, threats, hysteria and retribution known collectively as the 2014 midterms.
Traditionally, such elections are the out-party’s opportunity for payback against the party in power, and rarely has that been as true as it is this year, when President Obama’s unpopularity has made Republicans optimistic about winning control of the Senate and extending their domain in the House.
Republicans need a net gain of six Senate seats to take control; they are expected to add to their 33-seat margin in the House.
The states Decker says to watch won’t be a surprise to anyone here. They include New Hampshire, where Scott Brown is trying to unseat Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen; North Carolina, where Democratic Senator Kay Hagen is battling against Republican Thom Tillis to retain her seat–she’s been leading in the polls; Kentucky, where Alison Grimes is running against powerful Republican Senate Minority Leader Michell McConnell; and Louisiana, where Senator Mary Landrieu is in an uphill battle against Republican Bill Cassidy to retain her seat. Here’s Decker on the remaining battleground states:
Colorado: Ground zero in many ways, the state boasts tight Senate and governor’s races as well as a competitive House race in the Denver suburbs. Perhaps nowhere did Democrats more forcefully push their argument that Republicans were warring against women, and a loss by Sen. Mark Udall to Rep. Cory Gardner would send shivers through the Democratic hierarchy in advance of the 2016 presidential contest. Also down to the wire is the governor’s race, featuring Democratic incumbent John Hickenlooper and Republican Bob Beauprez. One complication: This is the first all-mail election in the state, which could alter turnout.
Kansas: News has not been as good for Republicans in this state, where Gov. Sam Brownback has faced a backlash over budget cuts and Sen. Pat Roberts is trying to beat back an independent candidate after being dirtied up early on over his lack of a home-state home. The Republicans’ fates will show whether it’s possible for the GOP to go too far, even in a red state, and the perils for a candidate of going Washington in a sharply anti-Washington year.
Georgia: Like Colorado, this is a site of competitive governor and Senate races. In both cases, Democrats were boosted by family ties — former President Carter’s grandson Jason is the gubernatorial candidate and Senate candidate Michelle Nunn is the daughter of longtime Democratic Sen. Sam Nunn. Nunn has also been helped by outsourcing accusations leveled against her Republican opponent, David Perdue. However, to win Tuesday would mean capturing more than 50% of the vote; otherwise, candidates head to a January runoff.
Iowa: Spoiled by attention each presidential cycle, Iowa has been in the bright lights this year as well. Republican Senate candidate Joni Ernst defined her toughness early on by airing an ad on her past experience castrating hogs. Bruce Braley, a Democrat, gained early fame by appearing to criticize farmers. Ernst’s strategy appears to be working better, not surprisingly; Braley trailed in a final Des Moines Register preelection poll. No such dramatics in the race for governor, which GOP veteran Terry Branstad has led wire to wire.
Alaska: But for potential runoffs in Louisiana and Georgia, the Last Frontier might well be the last to count votes, so late do its ballots come in. Democratic Sen. Mark Begich was trying to fend off Republican Dan Sullivan, with Begich helped not at all by Obama’s deep unpopularity in the state. Also up in the air: a novel unity challenge featuring independent Bill Walker and Democrat Byron Mallott, working together to try to knock off GOP incumbent Gov. Sean Parnell….
Florida: A true race to the basement, the contest for Florida governor featured two candidates who generate eye rolls as much as applause: the incumbent Republican, Rick Scott, and Republican-turned-independent-turned-Democrat Charlie Crist, who served as governor while a member of the GOP. All the strangeness of the race boiled down recently to this: Scott refused to come on stage for a televised debate because he objected to a fan Crist had brought in, leaving the moderator and Crist to fumble on air for several long minutes before Scott relented. It’s been lots of hot air — before and since.
According to Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Carrie Dann at MSNBC , the two key state that may show which way the Midterm political winds are blowing are New Hampshire and North Carolina.
North Carolina (where final polling places close at 7:30 am ET) and New Hampshire (where they close at 8:00 pm ET). Every scenario of Democrats holding on to the Senate assumes they win those two states. If we’re able to put those two in the Democratic column, then we’re going to have to wait for Alaska, especially if Georgia goes to a runoff. But if Republicans win one or both of North Carolina and New Hampshire, then Katy bar the door. It’s going to be an ugly night for Democrats.
New Hampshire, the biggest state bellwether over the past decade
Indeed, if any state has been a bellwether of the nation’s political mood over the past decade, it’s been New Hampshire. Consider: Democrat Jeanne Shaheen lost the state’s Senate contest in the pro-GOP year of 2002; Democrats swept the state in 2006 and 2008; Republicans made gains there in 2010; and Democrats won them back in 2012. The only exception here was in 2004, when John Kerry (who was from neighboring Massachusetts) won New Hampshire, despite the GOP’s narrow wins that year. So for Democrats to have a good night, Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) and Gov. Maggie Hassan (D) are going to need to buck history.
How 2014 could say something about 2016
There is a final reason to pay attention to New Hampshire and North Carolina tonight; they’re two of four presidential battleground states — Colorado and Iowa being the others — that feature a top Senate contest. For Republicans to have an Election Night that has the potential to be somewhat transformational for their brand, they need to win three of these four races. That would suggest that they’ve gotten back into the game in these states. (Republicans, after all, haven’t had statewide success in Colorado in a decade!) But Democratic wins in three of these four states would signal that Republicans still have issues here. If they can’t win Colorado, North Carolina, etc. in THIS midterm environment with the GOOD candidates they have, then they have A LOT of work to do come 2016. But there is another thing to keep in mind about 2016: Six-Year Itch elections often foreshadow the next presidential contest. The Dem gains in 1958 foretold JFK’s narrow presidential win two years later; the 1974 midterms (after Watergate) helped predict 1976; and the Democrats’ big victory in 2006 foreshadowed 2008. Even the surprising Dem gains in 1998 said something about the essentially tied 2000 presidential race. The one big exception here is 1986-1988, when Democrats picked up several Senate seats in Reagan’s Six-Year Itch midterm, but George H.W. Bush won the White House two years later. Democrats are comforting themselves this morning by the fact that Hillary seems so strong for ’16. But history tells us these Six-Year Itch elections may be more important than Democrats will have you believe.
At the National Journal, Ron Brownstein has an interesting article headlined The Tectonic Plates of 2014: Several key structural factors will help keep in perspective what Tuesday’s results say about the balance of power between the parties. What are those factors?
1. The president’s party almost always performs poorly in midterm elections, particularly the midterm of a second presidential term. Since 1900, the president’s party has lost both House and Senate seats in 19 of the 28 midterm elections; in the other nine cases, the president’s party gained seats in both chambers three times, and gained seats in one chamber—but not the other—six times. The numbers have been especially consistent in sixth-year elections: Although Republicans performed well in the midterms after the reelections of William McKinley in 1900 and Theodore Roosevelt in 1904, the president’s party has lost a significant number of seats in every other six-year-itch election since then, except for 1998, when Democrats benefited from the backlash against the House Republican drive to impeach Bill Clinton. In those other nine cases—1918, 1926, 1938, 1946, 1958, 1966, 1974, 1986, and 2006—the president’s party averaged a loss of 7.2 Senate seats and 37.4 House seats. Those may be good yardsticks to keep in view on Tuesday night.
2. The modern Democratic coalition is a boom-and-bust coalition that depends heavily on minorities and young people who turn out much less regularly in midterm than presidential elections. Older voters, who are trending steadily toward the GOP, vote much more reliably. Beyond any short-term factors, this is creating a structural disadvantage for Democrats in off-year elections: an electorate that is consistently older and whiter than it is in presidential races. As I wrote recently in The Atlantic: “In the five presidential elections from 1992 through 2008, exit polls conducted for a consortium of media outlets found that voters under 30 cast, on average, 18 percent of the ballots; in the five midterms that immediately followed those elections, young people accounted for just 12 percent of the votes. Voters over 65, by contrast, increased their share of the vote from 15 percent to 19 percent. The decline among minorities hasn’t been as consistent or as severe, but their share of the vote dropped two percentage points from 2004 to 2006, and three from 2008 to 2010, which are big shifts as these things go.”
Ironically, because Democrats have succeeded in turning out more minorities in presidential years, census figures show that the falloff in participation among Hispanics and African-Americans from an on-year to an off-year election is about twice as large as it was three decades ago. The most recent experience offered Democrats a daunting precedent: From 2008 through 2010, turnout dropped about one-third for African-Americans, almost two-fifths for Hispanics, and fully 55 percent for 18-to-24-year-olds, compared with about one-fourth for whites and only one-eighth for seniors. Tuesday’s election will help tell us how much the Democrats’ unprecedented efforts to identify and mobilize their core supporters can offset these underlying midterm trends, particularly in the battleground states both sides are targeting.
3. As more Americans pick Senate candidates from the same party that they usually support for president, each party is struggling to hold Senate seats in effect behind enemy lines—in states that usually prefer the other side for the White House. That trend is affecting both parties, but this year, it benefited Republicans. The core of the Democrats’ vulnerability this year has been a map tilted heavily toward places evolving away from the party, partly because the voters who comprise their new coalition are less prevalent there. Heading into this election, Democrats held 43 of the 52 seats in the 26 states that twice supported President Obama, and Republicans controlled 34 of the 44 in the 22 states that twice opposed him. This year, Democrats were especially vulnerable because they needed to defend six of their 10 red-state seats, and a seventh in North Carolina, which supported Obama in 2008 but not in 2012.One reason those states are growing away from Democrats harkens back to my second point: Their electorates are heavily influenced by the blue-collar, older, and rural white voters who have trended away from the party since the 1970s—but with increasing speed under Obama. In each of those seven states except Louisiana and North Carolina, the nonwhite share of the vote in 2008 was lower than the national average. As I wrote earlier this year, “In 2008, when Democrats won their Senate seats in those seven states, whites without a college degree cast at least half the votes in four of them (Arkansas, Montana, South Dakota, and West Virginia) and about two-fifths in Alaska and Louisiana. Whites older than 45 represented about half or more of the electorate in those first four states, and around two-fifths in Alaska and North Carolina.” Outgoing President George W. Bush’s unpopularity offset those unfavorable demographics in 2008. This year, Obama’s unpopularity is compounding their impact. Which brings us to the final headwind facing Democrats:
4. Americans are disillusioned with Obama. With a Gallup approval rating around 42 percent through the average of his 23rd quarter in office, Obama stands well below where Dwight Eisenhower (56 percent in 1958), Ronald Reagan (62 percent in 1986), and Bill Clinton (64 percent in 1998) did at this point in their presidencies, and closer to George W. Bush (39 percent). Two presidents who presided over a second-term midterm election after taking over a presidency already in progress also stood at least slightly ahead of Obama: Lyndon Johnson checked in at 44 percent in fall 1966 (six years after John F. Kennedy’s election) and Gerald Ford reached around 50 percent in 1974 (six years after Richard Nixon’s).
There’s much more at the link.
A few more articles of interest:
Wall Street Journal, Sullen Voters Set to Deliver Another Demand for Change.
Reuters, Republicans expect gains, but many races close on election day.
Bob Cesca at The Daily Banter, The Real Winner in Tomorrow’s Midterms: The Meme Culture.
Wall Street Journal, Republicans Poised to Expand House Majority in Midterm Election.
MSNBC, 19 OTHER Things to Watch on Election Night (Other than Senate Control).
Bloomberg Politics, Wavesmanship: The Battle for the Midterm ‘Mandate’.
CBS News, The governing class: What the GOP gubernatorial races mean.
Time, How to Watch the 2014 Elections, Hour by Hour.
Washington Post, Would a GOP Senate make a difference?
What’s happening in your part of the country? What important races are you watching. Have you voted yet? How many other people were there I plan to head over to my polling place this afternoon. We have a number of important state races and some interesting ballot questions. What’s on your ballot?
See you in the comments, and don’t forget we’ll have a live blog tonight. It should go up around 7PM ET.
peej
Carissa
ecocatwoman
mablue2
peggysue22
quixote
skydancingguestblogger
Mona (aka Wonk the Vote)
Sky Dancing 
Sorry about oversleeping. It was probably my unconscious mind trying to protect me from what might happen later on tonight. I even slept through my phone ringing twice.
You’re retired. There’s no such thing as oversleeping when you’re retired! LOL! You earned the rest!
Thanks, but I like to get up fairly early. Ever since I had that cold, I’ve been sleeping too late. You’d think the time change would have fixed that, but apparently not.
Yes, I know what you mean. I don’t like to sleep past 8:00 am at the latest. I was so excited about it being election day today that I was up at 6:30! lol!
You probably heard about this already, but wow!
From Bloomberg: Texas Governor Intimidating Grand Jury, Prosecutor Claims
Talking Points Memo: Prosecutor Claims Perry Threatening Grand Jury After Indictment
Perry is being Perry, a dumb ass bully.
Welcome to the most unrepresentative Senate election since World War II
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2014/11/03/welcome-to-the-most-unrepresentative-senate-election-since-world-war-ii/
Here’s one reason I don’t care for Jon Stewart.
From Mediaite, Jon Stewart: Hillary Clinton’s a ‘Little Hawkish for Me’
He is rabidly anti Hillary. I’m sure he would deny that it’s sexism but seriously, what else can it be? He was all over Obama in ’08 and ’12 and who in their right mind could say that Obama isn’t “a little hawkish”?
I agree with you. I used to be a fan but he’s shown his true colors again and again when it comes to sexism. From the way women on his staff are treated (or more correctly the lack of women) to his irrational hatred of Hillary, what else can you call him but sexist?
And not just sexism. He’s become one of those people he used to criticize–the both sides do it crowd.
Yes, I’ve noticed that too but I think it’s just to hide the fact that he’s done a complete about face with Hillary as the front-runner. I promise you that if there was a dude running, especially a kewl dude like Obama, Stewart would be a Dem again.
When Wendy Davis was on, his questions took up almost all the air time and she only got to say a few words. Next night, the Castro brother got to talk. I imagine a lot of people would have noticed.
*nodding* Yep yep yep. Stewart has issues.
Oh, really? Doesn’t he have the brains to know that almost anyone else would be totally hawkish?
Charlie Cook thinks the GOP will gain 7 Senate seats. I hope he’s wrong.
http://www.nationaljournal.com/off-to-the-races/how-big-a-night-will-it-be-for-the-gop-20141103
The GOP can’t win a 60 seat majority so even if it’s a 52-48 Senate the only thing they will control is the agenda/calendar. They can pontificate for 2 years but they can’t affect the sort of legislation they want. Even if a few Blue Dogs decide to crossover Obama holds the veto pen and there is no way they can muster the votes, in either chamber, required to override a Presidential veto.
It’s just 2 more years of snore, snore, snore!!!!!!
Yep. And it still hasn’t happened yet.
Predictions from Larry Sabato and colleagues at the Center for Politics:
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-crystal-balls-final-2014-picks/
I’m so terrified that I won’t click on any of the prediction links. I will stay up until I find out what happens in NH. The fact that this is a race to watch at all sickens me.
This election is more depressing than this season’s Red Sox cellar finish!
We won’t have much time to “mourn” the loss of Michele Bachmann when Joni Ernst is sworn in as a US Senator!
The GOP is swarming with nutjobs.
Shaheen’s going to win and Scott Brown will have to move again. 🙂
He’s probably already packing his bags, AGAIN!
I will really be shocked if Scott Brown the carpetbagger wins.
He’s is such a nitwit. Just dumb, dumb, dumb!!!
Seems to fake sincerity pretty well though, with rehearsed answers.
He keeps saying Massachusetts when he means New Hampshire, and there has been lots of criticism of him for not knowing much about NH.
Wake me in 2016.
The next 2 years will put the whole country to sleep.
I voted this morning. No line. I’m watching mainly local races here because I know some of the candidates.
Will be around tonight for the live blog.
Bring the Crystal Ball, honey!!!
🙂
And don’t forget the popcorn & peanuts and maybe some chocolate?
We’re seeing a big turnout in my district and that’s surprising given that nobody has predicted anything but a win for Warner, the Dem, for Senate. I don’t expect Jack Trammel to win for House of Rep, but if he does well here in this very conservative district it will resonate nationwide. CHIN UP EVERYONE! Let’s get optimistic!
Wow, I’m so happy to hear that. There weren’t very many people at my polling place, but I went after the lunch hour.
I voted, and now I’m going to stay here in my cocoon with my computer, radio, and TV till the whole thing is over.
I’m not expecting any huge upsets. I think it’s fairly certain that Wendy Davis is not going to win, but even in those races where we didn’t stand a chance, I’m hoping for a good showing. This is a midterm, we’re not expected to see a lot of Democratic victories but if we see a few upsets and some close calls, it bodes well for 2016.
I’m oretty much resigned to a Davis loss. The only question is how big.
That is such a shame, but I think she has a bright future.
Even if she loses, she got a lot of young people interested in politics and voting. It’s all worthwhile!
Abbott is really, really pathetic. I can’t remember a Texas politician I dislike more. Maybe Bill Clements? I vote for Davis and I hope a lot of people turned and voted for her as well. I am so tired of having insane people in power here in Texas.
I really detested Perry but Abbott is going to make him look good I imagine. He is really a petty and pathetic little person.
Well, you’re ready now!!!! 🙂 And BB, I wish I could sleep like you slept this morning. I think my serotonin level dropped along with my face, neck and other places that shall remain nameless.
It was busy, but essentially no line in my precinct when I voted.
The casino question was the one that really stumped me, and I’m still not sure which choice was better.
I voted yes. I don’t want casinos here.
I don’t have moral objections against gambling (even if I don’t gamble myself), but in the end I voted yes, too. Whatever jobs these casinos will create will mostly be balanced by job losses at Foxwoods.
I just think casinos are tacky, but it is one more way to make money from desperate people’s addictions.
I was so discombobulated this morning that I forgot to say Happy Birthday Dakinikat!!!!
And you are not a senior citizen yet.!
Thx! I guess I just have my training wheels on!
Oh gosh, I forgot too! Happy Birthday dak!
Oh goody, looks like Texas and Georgia have found new ways to keep people from being able to vote today. I want to scream!
Pierce: Voting Issues: Features, Not Bugs
You and me both.
http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/texas-sees-surge-disenfranchised-voters
Bad News For McConnell: Heavy Turnout Reported In Kentucky Urban Areas Likely For Grimes
http://www.politicususa.com/2014/11/04/turnout-hit-20-democratic-kentucky-area.html
Best news I’ve seen all day!. Thanks.
Wow…..That might be a trend setter. I welcome good news of any kind today.
And Happy Birthday Dak, you’re just hitting your stride.
Happy Birthday again! This time on your actual birthday. 🙂
A KY voter was photographed giving a thumbs down as Mitch McConnell voted.
I still can’t figure out how to get photos to go into a comment. I’ll keep trying.
Here’s the photo from Twitter.
https://twitter.com/jcastrojm4/status/529715327626911745
hahahaha! I freakin’ love social media!!!
Exactly, thumbs down. Great photo.
That is priceless!!!
That is great!
https://twitter.com/SamWangPhD/status/529726084695490563
I haven’t completely given up on the notion. It wouldn’t be the first time the polls were wrong. I’m just not worried about what happens “IF” the GOPTP takes back the Senate, because it means nothing. I still remember the night the MSM called it for Gore and I went to bed thinking “Oh, Hell Yeah” only to get up the next morning to a “Oh, Hell No”. The GOP are masters of stoking the POLLING propaganda just enough to get Dems, especially younger Dems, to not vote because they think it’s futile. Hey, I live in a ruby red state and I always vote, no matter what the polls say, because I know that someday, SOON, folks will become so fed up with the party of the RICH they’ll GET OFF THEIR ASSES AND VOTE for the party that has historically represented the interests of the masses. With the changing demographics it’s no longer a matter of “IF”, it is a matter of “WHEN”. 🙂
Earlier post from Wang:
Midterm National Senate Polling Error Is Five Times Larger Than In Presidential Years
http://election.princeton.edu/2014/10/17/is-ebola-diverting-voter-attention/
I really think that a lot of the “meme” that is going on is that both paid pollsters and the pundit class are actually trying to influence the vote to go the way they actually want it to. When they all start spouting off the same thing like the Republicans are going to gain control of both the entire Congress it makes me wonder if the fix is in.
That’s what I think and it’s entirely possible since, at bottom, most of the media works for the same six companies who own it all.
I’ve noticed that the MSM’s take on this election, President Obama and the problems in the world at large, seem to be a bit contrived and coordinated. It’s been noted that even Mara Liasson at NPR is noticeably leaning right. I also think that there is a concerted effort in the MSM to appeal to Fox News viewers and the only way to do that is to get on the bullshit bandwagon. Fox does well in the Neilsen ratings against all the major players (mainly because their viewers consist of folks who hate Obama and have nothing better to do all day than to watch the Obama Hate marathon). MSNBC has gone into the shitter and the Network Sunday Political shows have all lost viewers.
More Grand OLD Perverts and misogynists.
http://www.addictinginfo.org/2014/11/04/gop-governor-has-a-5-million-yacht-named-after-a-sex-slave-video/
Thanks for the Birthday Wishes! Being the typical Election Day Baby, I’m working, voting then poll dancing until polls close. See you on the live blog!!!
Jon Stewart didn’t vote today, because he couldn’t be bothered to find out where his polling place is. So much for Mr. Hillary hater.
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/jon-stewart-didnt-vote-2014
Missouri Gov. Jay Nixon accidentally tweeted a photo of a woman’s butt.
Accidentally? Right. Sure it was.
Should be true everywhere, damn it.
This must be the reason they closed 3 student polling places.
Wow! That’s ridiculous. I’ve rarely ever had to wait in line.
Good news, I hope!
I can’t seem to relax today. I hope Idaho votes for A. J. Balukoff, giving us the first democrat governor since 1990. Butch Otter, has already served two terms, and he swears he is taking his family values to the supreme court over the same sex marriages. I’ve made calls for Balukoff, and hoping Shirley Ringo beats Raul Labrador, her odds of winning is not looking good.
Here’s to success and support for the democrats tonight. Got fresh cream tomato soup, homemade croutons.
Getting the popcorn bowl out too.
Cheers, Fannie. I’ll keep my fingers crossed for you.
Good luck, Fannie!
I went ahead and posted the live blog, since this thread is getting so long.