Remain Calm …
Posted: October 29, 2012 Filed under: 2012 elections, 2012 presidential campaign | Tags: polls 32 CommentsThe latest republican trick is one again to attack the polls, lie about the polls, and make up shit. Here’s some great pollsplaining from one of the great 
nerds of statistics and polls Sam Wang.
First, thing up … there is no Ro-mentum and Obama’s lead is static.
In either case, the overall picture is the same: a narrow Obama lead that is static – or perhaps widening. There is no evidence for Ro-mentum.
I’ve been pulling my hair out over the total lack of understanding by a lot of media punditry over white noise or random variation. I think it’s ignorance and not deliberate. Any series of numbers reported over time will go up or down randomly because that’s just the behavior of a variable reported over time. That’s when you have to apply the idea of what’s the top and bottom border of are representing random. This is measured by Standard Deviation and it’s what underlies the idea of being within the margin of error. You have to see fairly clear and sustained patterns in order to call it not random. That’s why you can’t hang on every up and down. Basically, it takes 7 ups or 7 downs to bust out of the three standard deviation realm of what’s normal. Take a look at the graph over there. It goes up and it goes down. The deal to figure out is what is ‘statistically’ significant. You can’t hang on every blip of every poll.
Poll correctness has a lot to do with the way the sample is treated. That’s the basis of the guess of how many republicans you should sample or democrats in the overall sample. You have to estimate–base on historical patterns or something else–what the patterns of voter turn out will be. That’s what most of the complaints about polls tend to reflect. These assumptions lead to weighting the samples differently. That’s why a lot of folks do meta-analysis or look at a poll of polls. This has to do with the law of large numbers which tells us that averages of averages tend to reflect reality. But, the core reality is that pollsters make money by producing accurate pictures and not by telling people what the want to hear. One legitimate concern is if you should look at all voters or likely voters. A lot of the rest of the so-called sampling biases that pundits scream about tend to be based more on wishful thinking than anything. There are some differences in terms of how statistics are used. Both Gallup an Rasmussen are median-based polls and this can make a difference when comparing to a poll that’s not based on the same metrics.
Wang points to the echo chamber and the Romney minions that are focusing on single polls and screaming or clapping.
Paul Krugman is calling out National Review Online for their attempted takedown of Nate Silver for biased methods and somehow cooking the books. Krugman writes:
This is, of course, reminiscent of the attack on the Bureau of Labor Statistics — not to mention the attacks on climate science and much more. On the right, apparently, there is no such thing as an objective calculation. Everything must have a political motive.
Now more commentators on the right, including Jay Cost (The Weekly Standard) and Jennifer Rubin (Washington Post), are getting in on the act. Wow, dogpile on the rabbit!
A popular approach to undermining technical knowledge is to throw mud, assert expertise, make picky points, and sow doubts among the less savvy. In this case, what’s the argument? The NRO writer, Josh Jordan, makes this core criticism:
When you weight a poll based on what you think of the pollster and the results and not based on what is actually inside the poll (party sampling, changes in favorability, job approval, etc), it can make for forecasts that mirror what you hope will happen rather than what’s most likely to happen.
Jordan sounds like many partisan polling enthusiasts – on both sides. However, his style of poll-dissection can very easily lead a person astray. The human mind has a large capacity for finding reasons to reject a piece of disagreeable evidence. I’ve written about this in the context of how people form false beliefs in politics (“Your Brain Lies To You,” NYT, June 27, 2008). Polling internals lend themselves very well to such “motivated reasoning.” It is always possible to find something not to like in a poll. This is why I discourage all of you from chewing over single polls.
Part of the reason that conservatives are hating on Nate Silver is that they aren’t getting the results they want. It’s the idea that if you scream loud enough, you can get things to change. Check out Silver’s latest. Romney’s chance at getting the electoral college is less than 30% which is basically where it’s been for a very long time . A few up blips do not change a long term trend unless they occur over a period of time.
Any way, calm down and let the metrics be with you. Here’s some interesting snapshots of trends on a state by state basis.
peej
Carissa
bostonboomer
ecocatwoman
mablue2
peggysue22
quixote
skydancingguestblogger
Mona (aka Wonk the Vote)
Sky Dancing 
That link to Nate Silver’s place is from Oct. 22. He has Romney with only 25 percent chance now. Here are the latest posts from his blog.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/29/in-pennsylvania-the-democratic-lean-is-slight-but-durable/
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/29/impact-of-hurricane-sandy-on-election-is-uncertain/
I totally think Obama is going to win. I have for a while. I don’t think Romney stands a chance.
From your keyboard to Dog’s ears!
I wish I had your optimism Madamab…
I have been remaining calm. I’m not going to ruin my time now with worry when there’s a greater than 50% chance that I’ll be happy with the presidential win next Tuesday. I’m counting on the Romney lying polls to work against him with more of his supporters thinking he’s winning anyway so why bother to vote. The voting oppression attempts by that loathsome party should anger dems and independents to vote. I just don’t know what the younger voters are thinking. I would be angry, young or old, and would vote with an extra dollop of spite to keep those rabid, crazed attack dogs down. That’s my story and I’m sticking to it.
Well, then there’s a 75% chance I’ll be happy on the 6th.
yup
Current Sam Wang forecast:
After much to-ing and fro-ing, I changed my vote on my mail-in ballot from Jill Stein to…….O’Precious.
I thought about the E side of my state, which is traditionally conservative, and about how many other lefties in this upper left-hand-corner state would be voting Green. I saw one too many Vulture/Vulture-inspired entitled irrational males spewing bilge on women, workers, the safety net, the elderly, disabled, healthcare, everything but carried interest and capital-gains accounts and dressage horse tax writeoffs. A vile, burning, cureless pox on Vulture/Voucher and their slaveringly predatory ilk. Oh, and on their kids too.
Now I need a break. Concern by Sumi Tonooka as part of the local Earshot Jazz Festival. It gets cold, rainy, and long-nighted around now. Great time for cool music and hot music in the Seattle clubs. It’s rainy and windy, but per our usual for which I’m thankful. Stay safe, all.
One does what one has to do. Well done, now you can breathe a sigh of relief, The rest is up to others and if others have the same sense of what is right, then it should be okay. After that, it is onwards and upwards. Forcing politicians to do what they promised they would is an impossible task, but I think it is becoming the most important task.
Dak said:
“Any way, calm down and let the metrics be with you.”
That’s the best line I’ve read yet!
Silver’s stats are as reliable as you’ll likely get. There are no crystal balls out there but the truth is Obama has had the lead from the start [especially in the critical swing states] and all the GOP’s cheerleading and shouts of ‘Momentum’ are not going to change the numbers. They lie about most things but magical thinking isn’t going to give the win to Romney or swing large swaths of women, Hispanics. etc against their own self-interest. Plus, the gods have given POTUS a platform to remind everyone who is Prez, who is working with our state Governors in the current emergency [even the Big Guy Christie has had very positive things to say about the DC response] and remind everyone that it is the Republicans in general and Romney/Ryan specifically who have screamed how we don’t need Gubernit.
Until we do.
Personally, I was turned off by the one criticism of Silver’s numbers that attacked his manhood rather than his methodology. The GOP is into a hate fest/frenzy at this point. Le ’em go at it. Might mean there will less of them once this stinking election is over.
It just goes on and on. I fully expect once the worst of the storm is over, we’ll begin seeing the Mittster’s video where he called for the elimination of FEMA, said that it’s ‘IMMORAL’ for the Federal government to provide emergency relief to storm victims. Let the states do it, he insisted. Better yet let private enterprise do it. Gee, then victims can pay to be rescued.
Oh yeah, that’ll work and garner tons of votes :0).
“Anyway, calm down and let the metrics be with you.”
Best advice, ever!
Romney strategists are really f’king stupid.
Some one’s never been in a major natural disaster I can tell …
You would think Democrats would be winning Florida 90 to 10. Florida loves FEMA even if they can’t seem to sort out Medicare.
the MTA in NY say’s their is 4 ft of water entering the subway tunnels under the east river
Yup and it is closing all subways and trains until the end of the week.
http://twitpic.com/b8mu2h
subways and trains closed for a week? that’ll have an impact.
I can understand how many people – especially in LA, AL & MS in particular – would not have been fond of W’s/Brownie’s FEMA. Dumbass Romney surrogate, lots of disasters have happened since Katrina & FEMA’s/Obama’s response has been there when people needed them. They were ready to get in the states as soon as they could.
I agree. I love FL, but the state is regularly battered by Tropical storms, Hurricanes,Tornadoes, floods and fires. Every time I visit something is happening. I’ve gone down during 2 tropical storms and drove through a Forest Fire, near Jacksonville on my way to St. Augustine. About the only Natural Disaster they haven’t faced is earthquake. FEMA is important to all of us, but particularly FL.
I’ve been so fortunate. I’ve weathered a lot of hurricanes & have never needed FEMA or any first responders. It’s so easy to get complacent. I learned my lesson in 2004 & the triple hurricane whammy. Living in Orlando, instead of on the coast (grew up in Miami in the 50s & 60s) & was convinced that any hurricane would dissipate before it reached the middle of the state. I was wrong – Orlando got hit hard, especially by Charlie. I just lost lots of tree branches. I went out a few days later to pick up ice & drove a woman home who had walked about 5 miles to get ice & other things. She walked because her street was totally impassable due to 50 – 100 year giant oak trees covering the street. One fell on her garage, crushing it & her car inside. I had to park in the driveway of her neighbor behind her to even get to her home. I can’t even imagine how many hours/days it took to clear those trees. There were tarps on roofs for over a year after the storms.
Once again I’m going to own up to my own ignorance. I didn’t understand a good bit of what you said, dak. For example, the law of large numbers. However, I fully trust your knowledge of statistics & economics. I fully trust your interpretations of what’s going on with the polls. During most of this campaign cycle, I have been mostly confident that Obama will win a 2nd term. I’m still hanging on to the belief that Obama is going to have a much bigger win than the many of the pundits have even imagined or predicted. No wringing of hands, no calling for virgins to be thrown into volcanoes from me – I shall remain calm as well as confident in your “womanning” the helm of the Sky Dancing ship.
Great Post Dak. May the metrics be with us all, and may Pat and JJ find something really good to help them chill.
Amen (and I’m an atheist).
I wonder if this wouldn’t be the time for the pols to seriously consider climate change for once?
This storm, along with the freak snowstorm playing out simultaneously in West VA, and let’s not forget the drought this year alone that brought Rick Perry to his aching knees, all have an origin that must not be discounted. How about those raging forest fires this year that took forever to put out?
When pictures of the ice caps the size of Rhode Island melting every day you would think someone in charge would hasten to begin to put regulations in place with the cooperation of other nations because this stuff is not going away.
In one year New England has suffered through massive hurricanes, tornados, and earthquakes yet our winter was the mildest on record. Each year the earth goes up another degree or so but I guess when your attention is focused on the defnition of rape whatever is happening outside your front door can be dismissed.
Can’t wait for Pat Robertson to weigh in with another chunk of crazy in explaining this horriffic atmospheric event. Probably a “message from on high” that if we don’t elect Romney this is what awaits.
I will again rely on dak to drag up another “sermon” since she has the ability to shine a lot on the insanity whenever he opens his mouth.
Didn’t Michael Grunwald say Obama had established a DARPA for R&D into new clean energy sources? I saw an article he wrote that said Obama didn’t talk about but had actually done something worthwhile. I imagine it would be another bullseye on his back during the election if it were mentioned.
“I wonder if this wouldn’t be the time for the pols to seriously consider climate change for once?”
Damn Pat, didn’t you get the memo, This is all happening because of TEH GAY! I feel pretty certain that I’ve caused a couple of earthquakes all by myself. And the GOP/TP won’t discuss climate change because they think godde is doing this as some sort of END TIMES Encore. Face it, any group of people that are still looking for Noah’s Ark, The remains of the Apostles and the Holy Grail, doesn’t have time for scientific thinking, they’re to busy looking for things that never existed.
Off North Carolina, a replica of the 18th-century sailing ship HMS Bounty that was built for the 1962 Marlon Brando movie “Mutiny on the Bounty” went down in the storm, and 14 crew members were rescued by helicopter from rubber lifeboats bobbing in 18-foot seas. Another crew member was found hours later but was unresponsive. The captain was missing.
Betty Anne McCaskill, mother of U.S. senator, dies – KansasCity.com
Sad, so sad.
That really is sad, I feel bad for her.
I have a statistics background myself, so this is worrying me more than any poll biases or supposed “Romentum”: http://www.laprogressive.com/gop-is-stealing-elections/ Don’t know if you’ve covered this already, though.
The article did not go into much detail on how they estimated the probabilitty that the voting machines are rigged, but if you’ve read Freakonomics, they probably used similar methods.
This is a great read from The Atlantic
People Who Can’t Do Math Are So Mad At Nate Silver
http://www.theatlanticwire.com/politics/2012/10/people-who-cant-do-math-are-so-mad-nate-silver/58460/#