Romney Pollster Says Obama’s Convention Bounce is Just a “Sugar High”
Posted: September 10, 2012 Filed under: 2012 presidential campaign, U.S. Politics | Tags: Barack Obama, Mitt Romney, Neil Newhouse, Public Opinion Strategies 66 Comments
Neil Newhouse of Public Opinion Strategies
Just a quick post to call attention to a memo put out by Mitt Romney’s pollster, Neil Newhouse of Public Opinion Strategies. Buzzfeed reproduced the entire memo here.
“Don’t get too worked up about the latest polling,” wrote Romney campaign pollster Neil Newhouse. “While some voters will feel a bit of a sugar-high from the conventions, the basic structure of the race has not changed significantly.”
Newhouse argues that Obama continues to own the weak economy, and that the issue will soon “reassert itself” as the guiding factor in the election — the chief talking point that has always served as the founding rational (sic) of Romney’s campaign….
The memo notably strays from the straight number-crunching pollsters typically focus on, with Newhouse writing about campaign strategy and ad buys, among other things. It could represent an effort to leverage the pollster’s perceived credibility as a numbers guy — less likely to spin than a political strategist, or the campaign manager.
But what does it mean when a campaign feels the need to tell supporters “Don’t Panic?” At The Caucus Blog, Ashley Parker writes:
The mere existence of the memo seemed to place Team Romney on the defensive, forced to publicly assert that it is still in a position to win on Election Day. But the Romney campaign used the memo to underscore what has been its existing rationale for his candidacy — the struggling economy, which has not improved as quickly as Mr. Obama and most voters had hoped.
“The key numbers in this election are the 43 straight months of 8 percent or higher unemployment, the 23 million Americans struggling to find work, and the 47 million Americans who are on food stamps,” Mr. Newhouse wrote, citing the disappointing jobs report that came out on Friday. “Americans are not better off than we were four years ago, and that is why President Obama has struggled in this race.”
In the memo, the campaign also pointed to the expanding map of swing states, as well as its post-convention cash advantage, as reasons why it expects to win in November.
Now let’s get some perspective from Boston, where journalists are familiar with the history Newhouse’s reassurances and predictions, shall we? David Bernstein of The Boston Phoenix writes: “Well, If Newhouse Says So… PANIC!!!!!”
“[W]e’ve seen this kind of thing from Newhouse before,” says Bernstein:
Who in Massachusetts can forget the mid-October release of a Newhouse memo claiming an internal poll had Charlie Baker 7 points ahead of Deval Patrick, countering the public polls to the contrary — most notably a Suffolk University poll showing Patrick ahead by 7?
And two weeks later, the Newhouse memo claiming that “it appears that Charlie Baker is well-positioned to win this race”?
Patrick won by 6 points.
Or how about 2006, when the Kerry Healey campaign ran around touting an internal Newhouse poll that showed Patrick’s lead cut in half, to single digits, and public opinion of her improving? Healey lost by 21 points.
I’m not saying Newhouse is a terrible pollster. What I’m saying is that when a campaign is touting Newhouse claims to counter external evidence, in my experience that spells trouble for the campaign.
I’ll end with this piece by Salon’s Steve Kornacki, who points out that–despite the media narrative–President Obama has been ahead throughout the entire 2012 presidential campaign.
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Ha! to Newhouse! Obama beat Romney’s 4-month streak in higher donations raised last month (August). They’re so worried that I’ve received 2 robo-calls in the last few days pleading for a mere $3 for Romney to catch up. (I’m unaffiliated, but always vote dem; I’ve had this little beef with the dem party since that ’08 primary.)
Heh, I got one of those robo-calls this morning. The guy sounded just like Ron Popeil trying to sell me some new gadget. 🙂
Bill McInturff, who co founded POS, was a friend of mine in high school. Back then he was as radical left as they come. Loved Catch 22, MASH, all the regular lefty writers. Then years later he emerges as this major Republican pollster. WTF? Now he won’t come to reunions anymore cuz he gets so much shit from people who remember him when. If you want to see spin at its most ridiculous for a laugh, you should check out the youtube of
McInturff explaining how McCain was in a dead heat with Obama and going to beat him, just days before the election. And by the way, we all know what else POS stands for.
Thanks for the interesting info, Eric!
I have to agree with Kornacki – expert that I’m NOT. I’ve been checking RCP polls & felt they were inaccurate to keep averaging in polls that didn’t even go through the end of August to arrive at their final difference between O & R. Based only on Rasmussen & Gallup, which lean Republican and are the most recent – Obama is 5 points ahead. But we all know that a state by state poll to determine electoral votes is more accurate that popular vote type polling.
Thanks for the great links about the press release from Romney’s pollster. I just wish all this “stuff” was over. Fingers crossed that Alan Grayson makes it back into the House. Last I saw he was 7 points ahead of his opponent, Todd Long.
As of last night, Obama is leading by 5 points in Ohio in the PPP poll.
Then what was Romney’s negative bounce. Perhaps a hemlock high?
Hahaha! You made me lol!
On Neil Newhouse’s website they are saying Obama got a “dead cat bounce.”
Hey BB, OT but I need to go pick-up kids from practice. I have post ready to go, and you tweet and FB it for me? I don’t even have time to send you email. LOL
More like a “dead willard bounce”.
Thought this Bain story from Propublica was interesting: http://www.propublica.org/article/finders-weepers-early-bain-disputes-cast-new-light-on-its-business It talks about the early days when Romney was at the helm & the many lawsuits with other companies for their finders’ fees. Apparently all ended up settled out of court.
Too many people confuse Bain with a real venture capital firm and just don’t know these LBO artists do business. That needs to get around a lot more. Matt Taibbi had a great article in Rolling Stone with great examples and explanation.
I have only read where someone facetiously said that new jobs under Romney will come from military contracts. All I envision is pandemonium under a Romney administration that plans to add an additional $2 trillion to defense and to slash every government aid/welfare program to the bone or out of existence. Like the focus group said about Ryan’s budget cuts, “We didn’t believe anyone could be that cruel.”
Before too much longer, I’ll be jumping up and down in my seat in permanent protest mode as I type.
“While we celebrate equality of opportunity, we live in a society where birth is becoming fate.” http://www.bostonreview.net/BR37.5/ndf_james_heckman_social_mobility.php
At this stage of the game, the Democrats are fearing two things. One is that people will become over confident and not bother to vote. The other is that enough people will be wiped off the voting registration records to make a difference, but even that is a long shot.
I just hope that turnout is massive so we can drive the radical right back under their rocks and we don’t have to hear from them for a long, long time.
CNN poll: Obama up six over Romney, 52-46, among *likely* voters: http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2012/images/09/10/rel10a.pdf
http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/pew-clinton-speech-doubles-obamas-as-highlight-of
51% is a benchmark for pollsters.The 52% Obama approval rating and the CNN with Obama at 52% of LV is a significant shift and this itty-bitty wittle pollster has likely had a major sugar drop. We’re still nearly 8 weeks out, anything can happen, but those on the fence are beginning to make up their minds and TODAY that doesn’t look good for King RMoney. Now, if Larry Flynt gets the tax returns RMoney might want to consult with Clint Eastwood’s chair.
The Woodward revelations could be a downer for Obama’s side.
I think it’s the teacher’s strike in IL. The media are going to love this and really who doesn’t hate Rahm.
Obama isn’t supporting the teachers’ strike. He agrees with the requirements Emmanuel is trying to force on them–like evaluating teachers based on student scores–which can only hurt the quality of education.
Personally the Woodward revelations made me like Obama better. He seems a much stronger person than I had thought before.
That Woodward seems to think he could have used magical powers to solve the debt crisis on his own just makes Bob useless.
Woodward is a hack. Why any president would give him access, I don’t understand. I also agree with Ralph that Woodward’s interpretations of Obama’s behavior are off the mark. I’m glad Obama ripped apart the Ryan budget with Ryan in the audience. I don’t think he should have apologized. I loved learning that Obama got up and walked out the room when the Republicans refused to compromise.
Another thing about Woodward’s books is that they are incredibly stodgy and boring. No one but an obsessed Villager will make it through the book. And most of the Villagers who will say they read it probably didn’t.
Pat Robertson advises Husbands to BEAT their wives.
Is there no end to the ignorance displayed by these religiofascists? Do they question what has brought about the situation? No. Blame it on the lil wimmon who isn’t behaving the way they think the lil wimmon should. How about this Pat, Michael is a ne’er do well who doesn’t work, sits around drinking all day and expects the woman to hold down two or three jobs to supply him with a roof over his head and a never ending supply of beer in the fridge. Bleeping arsehole.
Right Christian thing to do, eh, Pat?
That man is full of hate.
Rebellious? Resisting authority? So the husband is in loco parentis?
F the environment: http://jacksonville.com/news/florida/2012-09-10/story/federal-judge-approves-navys-proposed-100-million-offshore-training Right whales were hunted nearly into extinction. The females migrate from the coast of Maine to southern Georgia/northern Florida to give birth. There are just over 400 individuals, with the biggest threat being impact from large ships. Now there will be a submarine training base in the midst of their calving grounds. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Atlantic_Right_Whale
Add to that Romney’s speechifying today to increase raping/pillaging/plundering our public lands/national parks for The Resources. Drill/Frack/Mine baby. SCHMUCK!
Found this while reading Kornacki. A really good story, one of the best I’ve read like it.
Salon: Why I left the GOP
Great read. I can completely relate. I grew up around people who lived in a vacuum and I was there too. Fortunately, I kicked my way out of the vacuum tube at an earlier age.
I saw that earlier & the photo of W turned me away. What a great piece. As always, ralph, you share some of the best links. Are you any good at picking winning lottery numbers in the Florida lottery? I’m willing to share.
If I could pick winning lottery numbers, I’d be living in New Zealand 🙂 Thanks!
Ralph, my neice lives in New Zealand, and you had better win a lottery before you ever consider living there. No central heating, no basements, prices on most things are outlandish, cause it all has to be transported in. Even the price of lamb and mutton is high for the residents because most of it is raised for export. Mind you, it’s a very beautiful country and the people are quite lovely and their government so far is sane. Did I say it was beautiful?
HT I lived in Australia for a few years and it was simply outstanding. Only visited NZ but it seemed even nicer. Luckily Australia does a lot of it’s own manufacturing and farming so imports weren’t so big a deal. Of course, it was years ago so that may be different now.
A colleague of mine worked in New Zealand for a year. He paid something under $100/mo for health coverage for his wife and himself, thought the cost of living, food, rent, was reasonable. Loved the climate, people, and culture. He did come from the Seattle area which does have a high cost of living, mostly for housing. But said he’d love to go back in a second.
Maybe it depends on the part of New Zealand in which you live?
This young man might read more about our force as far less potent. He could begin with the Vietnam War. 58,000 American military men and women were killed and the country, north and south, was united in 1976 under a Marxist Leninist single party regime practically before our last military plane exited. My brother-in-law’s F-4 was shot down over DaNang October 13, 1966 and he became a MIA. After the war ended, my sister and his mother consulted Senator Sam Ervin to have him declared dead by an act of Congress.
As I listened to John Lewis speak at the convention, I realized that our generation’s experiences with the ’60s struggles with civil rights and the war our military might did not win were in the dead past for those born after 1970.
That is such a sad situation. All those MIAs…..Immediately brought to mind that saying by Burke “Those who don’t know history are destined to repeat it.” And hasn’t the last many years proved it to be true?
That is something I wish everybody could read.
That’s a perfect description of what happened to Ann and Mitt Romney, except they never broke out of their limited spectrum of reality.
Here is another reason this election is fucked. I honestly can’t say I’m not worried. That link to polling in Ohio on who killed Osama bin Laden is like the WMD story.
http://www.esquire.com/blogs/politics/demos-bullies-at-the-ballot-box-report-12572438
Hey, This will brighten you’re day,
http://tpmmuckraker.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/09/birtherpalooza_canceled.php?ref=fpa
Another example to file under ‘Selfish Rich Christians’
Loved this reader’s comment:
Well, if it was Michigan, the trees would undoubtedly be just the right height.
🙂 good one!
I have never figured out what it is about the “view” in Seattle given it rains most of the time any way. My sister’s neighborhood around Lake Washington in Belleview is obsessed with the view of MT Hood … every time I’m there the skies are so cloudy you can barely see across the lake let alone farther than that. Rich people have the most inane concerns and priorities.
kat, I think that would be Mt. Rainier, not Mt. Hood.
We have a saying here: If you can’t see the Mountain (aka Rainier), it’s raining. If you can see the Mountain, it’s going to rain. Except in summer when it’s sunny & dry for about a month and a half.
LOL. I always mix that up … probably because most of the time I’m there no one can point it out to me.
With reasoning such as this, is it any surprise the initials of Newhouse’s polling company are POS?
Brilliant prolix, simply brilliant. As I am equally jaded, when I read the intro, my immediate thought was that Mary Poppins song – Just a spoonful of sugar helps the medicine go down.
I wondered who was going to be the first to notice that.
In honor of “you can’t fix stupid”.
http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2012/09/10/sen-rand-paul-slams-allegedly-smart-krugman-for-disingenuous-statistics/
Paul is kinda, sorta right about Federal civilian employees. However, I went to this link: http://www.opm.gov/feddata/HistoricalTables/TotalGovernmentSince1962.asp Then I copied & pasted it into Excel. From there I highlighted, in different colors, the presidents starting with the holiest of holy Saint Ronnie & then sorted by the last column, low to high.
All of the Raygun’s & King George I’s years were higher than all of their subsequent presidents. 2010 was 10% lower than HW’s lowest year (1992) & 6% higher than W’s highest year (2004). I’ll send the chart to bb & see if she can figure out a way to post it.
Oh, and Obama’s high is 11% less than Ronnie’s lowest year. How many wars was America fighting under Ronnie?
Is the census hiring being treated correctly by Aqua Buddha? Probably not.
Also for people in Fl.
http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2012/09/10/central-figure-in-election-rigging-scandal-goes-missing-as-fbi-probes-republican-rep/
Wow!
Now, good news.
http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2012/09/10/ford-plans-to-add-1200-new-jobs-in-detroit/
ROFLOL!! Niall Ferguson should be ashamed to show his face in public, but instead he’s asking: Why the Hell is Obama Winning?
http://www.thedailybeast.com/newsweek/2012/09/09/niall-ferguson-why-is-obama-winning.html
I had to leave a rant there … what an idiot!
It’s not a freaking paradox. Any one with 1/2 of a brain knows that the Republican party is responsible for tanking the economy and keeping the economy in the tank. I do not need my doctorate in financial economics to tell me that I’m better off now than four years ago. My investments are no longer trying to find a bottom nor is my home’s price. The NAVs of my money market accounts are not below a $1. We’re not fighting two useless wars concocted by neocons for who knows what purpose so hopefully, that waste of money goes away soon. The only thing that is messed up right now is everything in Louisiana related to Bobby Jindal’s policy and all the things the Republicans in congress have done to thwart the economy. Ask me why I am no longer a Republican. It is because I am an economist and supporting that lunacy would be malpractice for me. Also, I am a woman with two daughters. Supporting the theocratic Republican party would be suicide for all three of us. Why do folks even hire you to blather on like this? Go bother your own countrymen with your inane ramblings. We have no need for you here.
Teach me to refresh before commenting. great rant 😉
Thanks. Nothing worse than an elite that thinks the rest of us our rubes.
And what’s worse La. is the reddest state if you look at the polling numbers. I guess Katrina got rid of all the to poor to live people.
I have frequently thought about writing a book about this. Katrina didn’t get rid of those people. It was the Bush administration and the response to Katrina. We were a purple state until that point. He put them on buses and shipped them all over the country and didn’t make it easy for any one to be here or to come back. My guess is it was Karl Rove’s wet dream to make Louisiana Red and they made it so with their post-Katrina policy. The black middle and working class in this area was purged from the state. All of the freaking federal contracts to restore this place went to east coast and texas carpet baggers. Not local businesses. People were drive out of this area and they made it very hard for any one to return or stay.
Kat has a great comment on that post. Ferguson really is an annoying obnoxious twit!!!
I had to post this just because my sister and I, two states away, heard it live. Laughed our ass off at this hack trying to remember his talking points. ” the cliff did not fall off.
http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2012/09/10/gop-rep-mccarthy-blames-spoiled-child-obama-for-debt-ceiling-fight/