The Horse Race That Is Now Massachusetts
Posted: February 14, 2012 Filed under: 2012 elections, Elizabeth Warren Campaign, polling, Scott Brown, Senate, U.S. Politics 13 CommentsRecent polling puts the Elizabeth Warren vs. Scott Brown race at 46-43%, a reminder to voters that it’s a long way to election day.
Warren, the political newcomer, has come out of the box fast and furious, being able to introduce herself and general ideas to Massachusetts’ voters. Name recognition is critical for election success. In that regard, Scott Brown has the advantage, having held the late Ted Kennedy’s seat since 2010. But that also means, Brown will need to defend his record.
The breakdown in the new WBUR [NPR news affiliate, Boston] poll shows Warren leading 28 points with 18-29 year olds and 23 points with over 60 year olds. Brown holds the middle with a 24-point advantage with 30-44 year olds and a 2-point lead in the 45 to 59 year old slot. Warren’s favorability/unfavorability rating was at 39/29 trailing Brown’s numbers at 50/ 29. The poll was conducted by Steve Koczela, head of the polling group at the independent think tank, MassINC.
An interesting detail emerging from the poll was the importance of middle-class identification for November 2012. I would suggest that this is a direct result of the Occupy Wall Street Movement that has effectively raised public consciousness regarding the plight of working class Americans. At the moment, Koczela found that Scott Brown had a slight lead in voter perception—the man and his truck meme. However, the Boston Globe ran an article on Warren’s hard-scrabble background, which could go a long way in changing hearts and minds.
In adulthood, both candidates have done well for themselves. Brown owns a home and several rental properties in Wrentham valued at $1-2.3 million. He received a $700,000 payout for his autobiography. Warren’s Cambridge home is valued between $1-5 million and reportedly made more than $500,000 in 2010.
Obviously, neither candidate is struggling financially, so the test could very well come down to ‘the narrative’—who will convince the electorate that they understand and can identify with the reality of economic hardship and lack of job opportunities for our dwindling middle class. The Globe article on Warren “The Girl Who Soared but Longed to Belong” is an extraordinary step in that direction.
Brown has made several missteps recently. Though his push for the insider-trading bill is a plus, he came out through a spokesman in support of Republican Roy Blunt’s bill on a conscience exemption. The amendment was in response to the contraception fury last week and would effectively allow employers or insurers to deny health coverage that they find ‘morally objectionable.’ This is clearly outside the electorate’s position on the topic. According to the latest Fox News poll, 67% of women agree to contraception coverage and 58+% of independents agree with the President’s decision.
Brown’s response through John Donnelly was as follows:
Senator Brown appreciates President Obama’s willingness to revisit this issue, but believes it needs to be clarified through legislation. The senator signed onto bipartisan legislation that writes a conscience exemption into law, which is an important step toward ensuring that religious liberties are always protected.
This is hardly a strong position since [as has been discussed here and across the media expanse] this is not and never has been about religious liberty. The Republicans would love to frame the issue that way but it’s a losing strategy as found in the Fox survey.
Though sampling in the WBUR poll was small [503] it provides an intriguing snapshot of voter sentiment. It should be noted that the poll was taken between February 6-9 before Brown’s statement on his contraception position and support of the Blunt proposal.
Make no mistake, the election is not going to be a slam-dunk for Elizabeth Warren. What she has shown, however, is that her initial momentum has been sustained. And her ability to raise money is impressive with reportedly $5.7 million raised in the last quarter as opposed to $3.2 million raised by the Brown campaign. This still puts her behind gross fund raising for the 2012 contest with a total of $8.8 million to Brown’s $12.8 million in his war chest.
Still, no one should underestimate Warren’s appeal. As the Globe article makes clear, Elizabeth Warren is intimately familiar with setbacks, a woman who grew up amidst sprawling wheat fields and prairie, who lived a childhood she’s described as ‘teetering on the ragged edge of the middle class.” Money anxieties, the problems that income shortages create for families, have been the focus of Warren’s professional life—in her books, in her Harvard career in bankruptcy law and certainly in her dogged persistence in midwifing the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau in DC. Against fierce opposition.
If middle class identification is the thrust of the 2012 senatorial election then Elizabeth Warren is very well situated. That and her ability to distill issues and policy into understandable language is a true gift, something she shares with the likes of Bill Clinton.
This will be a race to watch right up to the finish line. And I love a good horse race!
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I was kind of surprised to see the race so close, but Warren is still not as well-known in MA as Brown. It’s still very early. Thanks for sticking with this story, Peg.
It’s tightening up and this isn’t going to be a walk in the park. The debates will probably figure handsomely in the ultimate race. Brown shined during the debates for the special election in 2010 and managed to strike a mortal blow to Coakley [who was weakened at the start by her support for Obama’s Healthcare Reform].
But here’s a factoid–Warren went to college [George Washington University for first two years] on a . . . debating scholarship!
The woman has a lot of strengths.
Are there any debates scheduled – or is this way too far in advance?
I don’t think Warren will make the mistakes Coakley did – who was not a very good campaigner apparently. Warren has boatloads of charisma and common sense.
Boy does this country need some mothers!!!!
No debates scheduled yet. But they’ll come and I expect Warren to do far better than Martha Coakley. Brown’s main advantage is name recognition and the fact he’s the incumbent. Think he made a gigantic mistake signing on with the Blunt’s ‘conscience amendment.” When a Fox News poll tells you these are poisoned waters, that the vast majority of women and Indies think the Republican framing of the contraception issue is nonsense, you’d be well advised [politically] to back off.
But Republicans seem absolutely blind to the public’s reaction to any of these policy stands. The fact that Santorum is leaping ahead in the primaries is a case in point. If the GOP wants to be crushed, Santorum is the perfect candidate. He’s a throwback to 100 years ago and would have been comfy with the Comstock laws.
Incredible!
It’s a myth that Martha Coakley isn’t a good campaigner. What killed her is signing off on the health care bill after taking a stand against the Stupak amendment, the badmouthing from the Obama administration, and then finally allowing Obama to campaign for her. Barney Frank was smart enough to invite Bill Clinton and keep Obama at arm’s length.
I never thought it would be easy to beat Brown, because he is pretty charismatic.
I have to believe Santorum’s rise is due to the low numbers turning out and Romney’s lackluster candidacy. The people turning out for Santorum are the usual diehard fundies. The press is milking this for all the drama they can – but it’s a tempest in a teapot when 2% of the electorate turns out.
Santorum’s statements on “proper sexuality” are laughable and should turn off huge swaths of sane conservatives; nevermind his ethics woes.
He’s not a conservative. He doesn’t want to conserve anything. He’s a right wing reactionary theocrat.
CNN Poll: Gender and income gaps in GOP nomination battle
Romney’s winning Republican women by like 10%.
The polling data & the Republican position remind me of Cheney’s response when an interviewer said to him that “most Americans’ are against the war in Iraq.” Cheney said, “So?” It’s clear to me that Republicans don’t care about what people care about. JOBS? What exactly have they done? Reaffirmed that America’s motto remains “In God We Trust.” Worthless corporate shills.
Elizabeth Warren was a frequent guest on Bill Moyers’ previous PBS series. She never failed to blow me away. She is brilliant and an amazing communicator. And her recent visit to The Daily Show was great & incredibly funny. http://www.thedailyshow.com/watch/tue-january-24-2012/elizabeth-warren
One thing bothers me about the race in MA. I imagine that, no matter what kind of agreement is between the candidates, Rove and his SuperPAC money will bombard the state with ads in the time immediately prior to the election. Who knows how many voters that could turn toward Brown?
You know, maybe this is what needs to happen. The GOP runs their right-wing whacko and the lack of enthusiasm for Barack Obama will go through the roof. Maybe it’s time for a showdown. The Republicans want a demoralizing defeat like McGovern or Mondale, this is quickest route to bring that into being.
Though I don’t have a horse in the presidential race and have vowed to go 3rd party, they run Santorum? Even I will vote for Obama.
Yes, Santorum, could insure Obama’s second term. My joy would come from defeating Santorum. We have hateful Republicans and tepid Democrats. I think I’ll join the Green team.