Is Joblessness the new Normal?
Posted: December 3, 2010 Filed under: Surreality, Team Obama, U.S. Economy | Tags: Bush tax cuts, unemployment 28 Comments
Why is it that every one in Washington DC is focused on the economic well being of about 2% of U.S. Households? That’s the number of U.S. households that that were expected by the IRS to make greater than $250k AGI in 2009. Why aren’t they paying attention to the number of unemployed?
The new jobless figures are out today. They’re no surprise to me and a lot of other economists. However, the worsening job situation keeps going right over the heads of nearly every one on capitol hill. Worse, the only economic policy–that coming from the FED–that shows any recognition of and response to the situation is coming under attack by the right wing and libertarian propaganda machines. Read this and realize what anemic job growth this country is experiencing. We are in the Dubya 2 economy.
In a jolting surprise to the economic recovery and market expectations, the United States economy added just 39,000 jobs in November, and the unemployment rate rose to 9.8 percent, according to the Department of Labor.
November’s number was nowhere near enough to help the large ranks of the unemployed, and was far below analysts’ consensus forecast of close to 150,000 jobs and an unchanged jobless rate of 9.6 percent. More than 15 million people remain out of work, and 6.3 million of them have been unemployed for six months or longer.
The monthly snapshot of the job market could lend more support to the suggestion by the Federal Reserve chairman, Ben S. Bernanke, that the government continue to stimulate the economy, as well as the Obama administration’s call for an extension of unemployment benefits. The apparent loss of hiring momentum may also fuel the debate over whether the government should take aggressive steps to reduce the deficit in the near term or wait until the economy returns to better health.
There’s a good article up by Catherine Rampell–also from the NYT–on the face and features of long term unemployment. That would be those folks that are labeled by the likes of Ralph Reed as unwilling to find jobs and happy living off of $200 to $300 a week. The article is called: ‘The New Poor: Unemployed, and Likely to Stay that Way’. These are the people whose lives hang like political pinatas from the ceiling of the Senate chamber. How long will they suffer from Republican Fairy Tales and the unwillingness of Democrats to stay up for what is right?
This country has some of the highest levels of long-term unemployment — out of work longer than six months — it has ever recorded. Meanwhile, job growth has been, and looks to remain, disappointingly slow, indicating that those out of work for a while are likely to remain so for the foreseeable future. Even if the government report on Friday shows the expected improvement in hiring by business, it will not be enough to make a real dent in those totals.
So the legions of long-term unemployed will probably be idle for significantly longer than their counterparts in past recessions, reducing their chances of eventually finding a job even when the economy becomes more robust.
Steven Benen from the Washington Monthly sums up the likely political response vs. the necessary one.
If our political system were sane, awful news like this would be a much-needed wake-up call that would spur policymakers to action. There would be an immediate drive on the part of Congress and the White House to do far more to stimulate the economy, inject more capital into the system, and invest in job-creation measures immediately.
Instead, Americans just elected a new House majority that is prepared to do the exact opposite — taking money out of the economy, scrapping economic stimulus, and ignoring all job-creation measures. Voters were angry about the economy last month, and in a tragic irony, elected people intent on making the economy worse.
The majority in this country has elected people ‘intent on making the economy worse’ and a president who is likely to enable them. Read this headline at WAPO: ‘Obama, GOP in quiet talks to extend tax cuts’. Extending tax cuts to the richest people in this country is an unfunded mandate of $700 billion a year. This a priority when the same party is whining about the deficit? It is clear that most of Washington is only concerned about the deficit when it doesn’t impact their constituencies and the poor, middle class, and unemployed seem to be the constituency of no one.We only deliver frantic votes that are ignored and misinterpreted.
The White House and congressional Republicans have begun working behind the scenes toward a broad deal that would prevent taxes from going up for virtually every U.S. family and authorize billions of dollars in fresh spending to bolster the economy.
Negotiations have accelerated in recent days as Congress has confronted deadlines for extending a series of tax cuts that expire at the end of the month, renewing emergency jobless benefits and keeping the government funded into next year.
The talks mark the dawn of a new era on Capitol Hill, with resurgent Republicans holding far more leverage and commanding a more prominent role in crafting legislation. The private discussions, which parallel a more public set of talks, have left many Democrats grousing that President Obama is being too quick to accommodate his adversaries, who are still a month away from taking control of the House and expanding their presence in the Senate.
These “grousing” Democrats are the same ones that blew a huge majority and mandate on passing Dole/Romney Care instead of taking care of the economy right from the beginning. They were also the crowd that passed stimulus spending that was inadequate and loaded with pork pies meant to stimulate a few at the expense of the many.
So, now folks like Senator Harkin find their Democratic Voice? When they face the steam roller straight on? This dandy quote is from HuffPo.
Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D-N.J.), for one, slyly acknowledged that he’d get himself in trouble if he answered whether or not he was happy with the administration’s engagement.
“You want me to be the [troublemaker]?… I’m too junior around here to do that,” said the 86-year-old, five-term senator.
Sen. Tom Harkin (D-Iowa) did a little less dancing. “I just think, if [Obama] caves on this, then I think that he’s gonna have a lot of swimming upstream [to do],” said the Iowa Democrat, a unabashed progressive who has been less reticent than most in criticizing the White House. “He campaigned on [allowing the rates for the rich to expire], was very strong on that, and sometimes there are things that are just worth fighting for.”
And if he decided to compromise away from that, a reporter asked the senator.
“He would then just be hoping and praying that Sarah Palin gets the nomination,” Harkin replied, insinuating that there would be few other Republicans that Obama could assuredly beat in 2012.
Oh, great! We’re facing down a 10% unemployment rate with historic long term unemployment and all they can think about is the 2012 elections? We are so f’d.
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http://www.tomdispatch.com/post/175326/tomgram:_andy_kroll,_how_the_oligarchs_took_america/ Interesting take on Jimmy Carter’s addition to our economy.
Interesting. Carter was also responsible for the start of the de-regulation fever.
Exactly. I look back and remember how hard I worked for him. I amaze myself, Ha!
I voted third party twice against Carter. He gave me the creeps from the first time I saw one of his ads.
When a media/opinion outlet states a political position that you agree with, is it a “propaganda machine”?
I’d say it’s something more along the lines of well-founded skepticism. When an institution that specializes in massive bailouts to its corporate buddies (and which apparently can only operate in total secrecy) comes along with ANY policy proposal other than the blatantly obvious, it’s best to treat it with suspicion, no matter how many degrees these modern-day intellectual bodyguards of the House of Hohenzollern might have…
Now, add to that the fact that the very things that got us into this mess seem to be the things by which they propose to extricate us, and that they can’t make any reasonable promise that those extra billions are ultimately going to wind up as anything other than more drastic increases in the price of food and fuel, and it doesn’t exactly take a Goebbels-esque “propaganda machine” to cast doubt on this whole thing.
And that isn’t even addressing the apparent total inability or total unwillingness of these people to actually give their critics a coherent answer or, indeed, do ANYTHING AT ALL BY WAY OF REPLY other than to insistently repeat, “It really is a good idea!” and to warn us from reading books that are on the Index, as it were.
If it’s an opinion and not providing just data and fact, yes it’s propaganda.
One wonders why the powers that be want joblessness, other than to depress wages benefits and wind up with a serf/peon class, yet, even so, slaves have no time to be innovative, so are the PTB prepared to live with their largess for the next so many years and watch their empire crumble because they have confined themselves to inbreeding and have no new influx of innovation? Isn’t this what happened to the Great houses of history? Oh, sorry, history has no relevance. Mea Culpa for even mentioning it /snark
It’ll end up with the 2% who own the corporations employing a few peons at serf wages But neither the serfs nor the great mass of the unemployed will be able to buy anything.
Only then will the 2% pay attention.
It’s keeping people in fear thing. If the folks that don’t have jobs fear they will loose them, then they’re much less likely to speak out against the powers that be or switch jobs or complain about anything like bad pay, overwork, horrible treatment, etc.
dak, email.
Thanks for the NYT link, good article.
The gaps in the resume aspect had me picturing myself inventing a “Vandelay Ind.” (a la Seinfeld) message on my answering machine to fill in the gap. (lolsob)
I think I’m losing it.
Yeah, that’s pretty funny, I’d forgotten about that.
I have to catch up on all this, but I did read that last sentence of the post: We are so f’d up. Wow, that is really becoming a catch phrase.
Just saw this at FDL.. well done vid by aflcio…the “pinatas” as dak succinctly wrote above. Good night all, let’s hope tomorrow’s a little better.
“The message Obama is sending is (5.00 / 2) (#3)
by Anne on Fri Dec 03, 2010 at 10:44:19 AM EST
that he doesn’t believe in the power of government to help get us out of the economic mess we’re in, that he’s buying in to the two-faced Republican hysteria on deficits”.
“As Robert Reich posted on Wednesday:
Quiz: What’s responsible for the lousy economy most Americans continue to wallow in?
A. Big government, bureaucrats, and the cultural and intellectual elites who back them.
B. Big business, Wall Street, and the powerful and privileged who represent them.
[snip]
So B is closer to the truth.
[snip]
If Obama and the Democrats were serious about story B they’d at least mention it. They’d tell the nation that income and wealth haven’t been this concentrated at the top since 1928, the year before the Great Crash. They’d be indignant about the secret money funneled into midterm campaigns. They’d demand Congress pass the Disclose Act so the public would know where the money comes from.
They’d introduce legislation to curb Wall Street bonuses – exactly what European leaders are doing with their financial firms. They’d demand that the big banks, now profitable after taxpayer bailouts, reorganize the mortgage debt of distressed homeowners. They’d call for a new WPA to put the unemployed back to work, and pay for it with a tax surcharge on incomes over $1 million.
They’d insist on extended unemployment benefits for long-term jobless who are now exhausting their benefits. And they’d hang tough on the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy – daring Republicans to vote against extending the cuts for everyone else.
But Obama is doing none of this. Instead, he’s telling story A.
Making a big deal out of the deficit – appointing a deficit commission and letting them grandstand with a plan to cut $4 trillion out of the projected deficit over the next ten years — $3 of government spending for every $1 of tax increase – is telling story A.
What the public hears is that our economic problems stem from too much government and that if we reduce government spending we’ll be fine.
Announcing a two-year freeze on federal salaries – explaining that “I did not reach this decision easily… these are people’s lives” – is also telling story A.
What the public hears is government bureaucrats are being paid too much, and that if we get the federal payroll under control we’ll all be better off.
Proposing a freeze on discretionary (non-defense) spending is telling story A. So is signaling a willingness to extend the Bush tax cuts to the top. So is appointing his top economic advisor from Wall Street (as apparently he’s about to do).
Nary a Democratic view to be found in Obama’s approach to government and the economy, which doesn’t bode well for the next two years, or the forseeable future – if, that is, you are an average person and not one of the elites. The Elite will do fine, as they always do”. I don’t know Anne, at Talk Left, but she always seems to get it right.
Too bad Robert Reich can’t get back into a position to make any difference but at least he has a nice cushy academic job.
Hey, just saw this come through on my reader:
Alan Grayson Points Out How Much Fox Pundits Stand to Benefit from Extension of Bush Tax Cuts
http://videocafe.crooksandliars.com/heather/alan-grayson-points-out-how-much-fox-pundi
It is amazing to me that these group of people are making so much money…
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/rj-eskow/obamas-deficit-frankenste_b_791903.html I guess their is nothing we can do to stop this train.
Simpson and Bowles, both radical ideologues on the subject of deficits, threw away the rulebook and dared the White House to defy them. They ignored the guidelines the president set for them in the Executive Order appointing them. They didn’t meet their deadline and issued a report without achieving the number of votes required. In fact, as Talking Points Memo reports, they slipped out of town without even holding a public vote (after canceling Tuesday’s planned public debate).
That didn’t stop them from issuing those “blood bath” threats if the president and his party dare to deviate from their mandate.
When you read these things you either think we have the most stupid person for President ever to walk the earth. Why oh Why would he appoint these two to do that? Then you think, we’ll if he knew what he was doing, then he’s not stupid, he’s just devious and the intent all along was to bring down social security and programs considered third rail in the past.
Your choice, either way we ARE f’d.
An except from the President’s statement on the Simpson/Bowles Commission:
This morning, my budget director, Jack Lew, spoke with Chairman Bowles and invited the entire Commission in to meet with him and Secretary Geithner to discuss the Commission’s proposals. Overall, my goal is to build on the steps we’ve already taken to reduce our deficit, like slowing the growth of health care costs, proposing a three-year freeze in non-security discretionary spending and a two-year pay freeze for federal civilian workers, and restoring the rule that we pay for all of our priorities. What a guy!
You mean this bit pdgrey?
What a lying liar.
I am repeatedly struck dumb by the actions this President both takes, and is willing to tolerate from his supposed underlings. It takes a lot to strike me dumb.
If he touches SS he’s going to get electrocuted, at least that’s the impression I get from talking to friends who are soon to get SS, or already get it and depend upon it. Even my father, once too proud to take SS, now depends upon it to help pay health care costs.
Millions Bracing for Cutoff of Unemployment Checks
“The federal extensions have been customary in past recessions and their aftermath, but they have become ensnared lately in political jousting over the soaring budget deficit.”
I am still reading it…but usually when I get angry about something, it takes me longer to read and digest anything…
I just can’t figure this out. It’s not like there’s not enough information out there to show people that it’s the job market! What is wrong with this current crop of politicians?
They hate us. It’s a class war in the making. That’s about the only conclusion I can draw at this point.
The class war in America has morphed into a very nasty monster that’s meaningful to a wider range of people than ever before.
It’s no longer established Elites looking down on the rabble, like which family you’re from or which school you went to, which was bad enough. It’s now self-described elites, wannabes who feel they’ve made it and feeling like they’ve made it requires keeping others down so the neo-elites can feel superior. It’s the haves versus have-nots, the cool group versus uncool schlumps, the lucky versus the unfortunate, thin beautiful young charming versus fat dumpy middle aged workhorses. There are lots of elites today, grouped by profession or location or age or income or other coolness factor, but the one thing the whole structure has in common with Elites throughout history is its essential element: division. Us versus Them. You can’t be Us, elite, if you don’t do your part to make sure there’s a population of Them.
Here’s the thing: We have all become denizens of Flint , MI…they haven’t wanted us to make stuff for years… but what has protected us was they wanted us to still buy the stuff made elsewhere ….now the worst has happened: They don’t care if we buy the stuff…which has been our ace card since forever….. now they are looking at China etc to make the stuff and then to buy the stuff…we are out of the loop and so they are firing our asses on mass and not returning our phone calls and won’t .