Looking to the Future
Posted: November 4, 2010 Filed under: Elections 50 CommentsWith the ink barely dry on the analysis of the 2010 elections and some of the results still unknown, the pundit class is 
already out with their prognostications for 2012. I’m not sure I want to see their future but it’s not always the wanting that makes one look.
Here’s one from The Hill called ‘You think -’10 was tough? Check out ’12.’ This little fact grabs one’s attention.
For the first time in two cycles, Democrats will have more seats up for grabs than the Republicans, and the party could see its shrunken majority erased altogether.
That’s just looking at the impact for the national level. Here’s some numbers from the state level at National Journal.
Republicans picked up 680 seats in state legislatures, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures — the most in the modern era. To put that number in perspective: In the 1994 GOP wave, Republicans picked up 472 seats. The previous record was in the post-Watergate election of 1974, when Democrats picked up 628 seats.
The GOP gained majorities in at least 14 state house chambers. They now have unified control — meaning both chambers — of 26 state legislatures.
That control is a particularly bad sign for Democrats as they go into the redistricting process. If the GOP is effective in gerrymandering districts in many of these states, it could eventually lead to the GOP actually expanding its majority in 2012.
I know we’ve discussed this before, but the question has to be re-asked. How did we get to the point where the GOP looks ascendant at a time when every one felt that Dubya/Cheney had destroyed the party for years to come? The NYT has suggested that it was part of a GOP comeback plan but I don’t see it that way. They had help from the establishment Democrats with their arrogance and insistent that we all just vote for them and they’d do what’s best for us.
The White House struggled to keep Democrats in line, with a misplaced confidence in the power of the coalition that propelled Mr. Obama into office. Republicans capitalized on backlash to the ambitious agenda Mr. Obama and his party pursued, which fueled unrestricted and often anonymous contributions to conservative groups, some advised by a nemesis Democrats thought they had shaken, Karl Rove. That money so strengthened the Republican assault across the country that an exasperated Democratic party strategist likened it to “nuclear Whac-a-Mole.”
Most of all, Republican leaders had the foresight to imagine the possibility of winning again. Even now, they believe they could have taken back the Senate if they had just managed to block at least two Tea Party candidates who proved unelectable.
I’m sorry. I don’t think people like the GOP or their message and if you check they polls, they still blame the economy and a lot of the problems on Dubya and his GOP cronies. This election was not FOR the Republicans. It was against the Democratic Party and you-know-who. We’ve had at least three “change and change now” mandates in a row. No one appears to be really listening in the District.
There were two observations I’d like to make. One is that the worst of the Tea Party candidates lost in all but a few states. The second is that a lot of the Dems that lost were the from the Blue Dawg side of the party. I’m still trying to think about what those two trends say when taken together. The other numbers trend was that the midwest went so red. Given the looming redistricting and the importance of state machinations to presidential campaigns, 2012 could be the Superbowl of modern elections.
Stay tuned and let us know what you think.
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Sky Dancing 
The Democratic Party losses in the last election erased their power in many states, but more importantly, it decimated the future of many politicians that will not be able to move up the ladder from elected state legislatures to Washington.
I’m wondering what is left of some of the states’ party organization. Here in Louisiana, the Democratic Party has left the building. They couldn’t field a grasshopper in a cornfield.
Nice post, Dak. You hit the nail on the head when you said that there have been three ‘change’ elections, but none of the people elected are listening to what the people want. I am sure that this new group falls into that category. However, it is going to take for things to get worse, as they probably will under this republican congress, before they get better. For things to get better, Hillary needs to move into the house in Washington somewhere on Penn Ave. Period.
Hillary 2012
The last two years the Democratic Party has really ignored the requests from the bases. Women have lost ground. GLBT has really gotten no forward. This election showed massive exodus by labor!!! That’s because there’s been no attention to the horrible economy. Black unemployment is terrible and there discussion is on decimating changes for city schools. Then, there’s the immigration rhetoric and no action on a comprehensive bill which concerns Latinos. Really, the theme song from those of us in the hinterland is becoming “What have you done for me lately”? Clearly the last few years worth of policy has been way to centered on the donor class.
I’ll bet this will surprise you (not!): Obama open to discussing tax cuts for the rich.
Obama Girl may have to remake the song and talk about washing the man right out of her hair … unless she likes DINOS
Yup. Bullying became part of their strategy.
And insults. Don’t forget those.
And telling us to get lost. Take a hike. They don’t need our vote.
Unbelievable. What can you say to that other than a “yeah, okay, see you around.” Buh-bye.
Well couple that with the insults and talking down we got this year.
The philosophy behind Fox News is to move the Center to the Right. They do this by putting right-wing extremists front and center. By comparison, people view the rest of the Republicans as moderate. I think that’s part of why the tea party has been co-opted by the extreme right; by comparison, the “other” Republicans like Jeb Bush, Mitt Romney, etc look moderate and therefore more attractive to Independents in 2012. I know the GOP thinks long-term, unlike the Democrats. They knew they didn’t stand a chance in 2008 after 8 years of Bush, so the next best thing was a one term, inexperienced, easily manipulated Democrat. Enter Obama. That’s why the GOP was so involved in the Democratic primary encouraging their members to become Democrats for a day, etc, because they had to beat Clinton. Clinton would have been a two-term President and would never have caved to so many GOP demands. I’ve always believed that Obama was the GOP’s choice first and foremost, and that’s why he had the backing of corporate America and the media in 08.
I couldn’t agree more
Yes. Yes. And yes.
GOP looks ascendant….( how?)
I think people want corruption they can understand…the GOP always does well when that’s the case.( like in 1980) Of course people don’t want corruption…but it going to given to them anyway and if they have to chose , they want that good old fashion kind ….I guess I’m saying, to paraphrases Harry Truman, when the choice is between a phony Repug and a real Repug, people chose the real one . Perhaps they are thinking/ hoping it is the old GOP that steals , sure, but leaves just enough for the system to bump along. But I think they are mistaken.
I was thinking that they may be mistrustful of blue dogs because they will be partisan and still might vote for something like hcr after pressures. But you’re right that republicans will stay predictability republican.
I really think we came back to the same-old, same-old in this election, but amplified several times for a number of reasons, one of which you point out–this is the third consecutive election where voters have been screaming at the top of their lungs and no one in D.C. is listening. So what is the same-old, same-old? A complete absence of leadership from the Dems. I remember how many voters, who might have been persuaded by an otherwise strong Dem candidate, voted to give Bush a second term even though they weren’t wild about his policies. Why? Because at least he seemed to have a plan–a bad plan, to be sure; but, by comparison, Kerry appeared totally rudderless.
So what did Obama do when he asked voters to give Dems another two years? He didn’t say *why* voters should do that. He didn’t lay out a game plan of proposed action to address jobs, home foreclosures, anything that voters care about. If you were a Dem hopeful–or even an incumbent–what sort of party platform were you supposed to run on?
Same with the Blue Dogs and New Dems–they were just another iteration of Arlen Specter trying to keep *his* job while not caring about anyone else’s. Do you know what the big issue was for my New Dem representative (besides any action that favored the banks or big business)? On-line identity theft! Now really, is that a bread-and-butter issue for *anyone*? So it’s no surprise that she would be knocked off her perch by an unemployed, two-time loser who could yell louder.
I don’t think Obama knows what to do about jobs other than the same thing the Repubs want to do–cut taxes. The man has no imagination whatsoever. Even Chris Matthews said basically that tonight!
Could it be that Tim Geithner is really running the country? I couldn’t believe it when I learned that even Larry Summers wanted a bigger stimulus. Who does Obama actually listen to? Or does he just stubbornly follow the Reagan game plan no matter what advice he gets?
Maybe he and Valerie Jarret sit around and discuss his beautiful mind and then they roll a die.
I think our country needs better alternatives to what we have. I think that there seems to be a void of leadership from the left side that needs to be filled or we wil continue ever so rightward and continually be seen as on the “wrong track.”
The Tea Party is curious to me because by nature conservative means being resistant to change and yet it is and was the conservatives who have had the temerity to yank their leadership up by the collar and demand that they represent them. Meanwhile our own side of the aisle seems bound and determined to focus group our direction to death. It’s maddening. We’re still heck bent on sticking our fingers in gaping wounds and pulling those scabs off over and over. We’ve pulled them off to the point of considerable scarring.
Yes, the Republicans listen to their base, the Democrats ignore theirs and keep moving to the right.
Karl Rove was working his damndest to achieve a Repub majority to serve in perpetuity during his years in the WH.
With so many state elections falling into the hands of the GOP, with a chance of redistricting once again in play, this could easily be achieved.
Money and power are pushing this along to the extent that the Dems could easily become as extinct at the dinosaurs in due time.
The ridiculous elevation that accompanied Obama during 2008 has led to much of what we are witnessing now. An empty suit with little hardcore desire to lead beyond the hoopla, measured with a lack of experience has brought us to the point where democracy as we have been raised to honor may be on the brink of disaster.
Words fail.
And a clarion call will be sounded throughout the land asking Hillary (and Bill) to lift what remains of the middle class and democratic ideas onto their shoulders and carry us to a new day.
Dems are going to have problems as long as the Dem party elite hate its own working class base ….and they do. It’s why they hate and have back stabbed Bill/Hillary etc. They hate the very idea having to do something….It should be enough that they just ” be”. Obama’s above even thinking about doing anything and they love that.
Doing something is so low class! /snark
You are sooooo right, paper doll!
Glad you made it to Indiana safely!!!
Obumbles chief lackey is out there confirming that the WH will give the GOP everything they want! The house is coming down around them! Hooray!!!
Asshats.
Hillary 2012
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/11/04/gibbs-obama-will-listen-t_n_778864.html
Yeah. I have no idea why they just don’t announce a parry change. That’s Change I can believe.
Take a peek at the comment section. Approval rating will drop with that capitulation. 35% is the magic number and it IS approaching faster than people think it will. I suspected fall next year. Its starting to look more like summer. I’m giddy!! 😀
Hillary 2012
I’m not “giddy”, I’m frankly scared.
I can well imagine a time when we are totally controlled by the likes of the Fox media empire.
I can well imagine a time when we live under the yoke of a fundamentalist approach to governing where the only legislation that stands a chance of passing is based on bible theory.
I can well imagine ther right to a medical procedure will be forfeited owing to some biblical interpretation.
I can well imagine this nation being in the hands of corporate control
minus any regulation that would hamper the bottom line.
I can well imagine being forced fed by shouts of “patriotism” to invade more countries under the guise of “spreading democracy” without debate or opposition because it is “god’s will”.
I can well imagine the gay community forced to go undercover for fear of their lives and livlihoods based on some twisted logic that has no basis in fact.
I can imagine a world that becomes unhealthier in the face of scientific facts being denied based on business interests and the almighty buck taking precedence.
I can well imagine that education will only be affordable to those in the upper income brackets.
I can imagine “creationism” taking the place of science in our schools.
I can imagine history being rewritten and facts being denied in place of ideology that suits the purposes of those in charge.
I can imagine intellectualism becoming a “sin”.
I can imagine a nation of poorly paid citizens working longer hours and without affordable benefits.
I can imagine women relegated to a role of breeders.
I can imagine all this and know in my heart that it can happen. It frankly scares the hell out of me.
Because the nation elected Obumbles, things will get worse before they get better……
We have a way out of this mess. Her name is Hillary…
Pat, I can imagine all that as well.
I couldn’t, 40 years ago when adults around me tried to explain it, that it could happen here as well as anywhere. I couldn’t even imagine it happening here 10 years ago. But today I can imagine it because it’s not just Fox News and neocons and the religious right, now it’s ObamaDems as well. Obama chose not to order investigations and hold Bush/Cheney accountable, he chose to hand over health care reform to the health care industry’s corporate power, which is pretty much what he’s done with the economy and financial regs and the Gulf oil spill, etc. MSNBC is as bad as Fox News and so is CNN – they don’t deliver the news, they spew corporate propaganda.
So yeah, I can imagine all that as well.
Get your popcorn. Heath Shueler is going to challenge Nancy Pelosi.
I’m still visualizing soupcity’s Norma Desmond simile.
For Shueler to be doing this Pelosi must have lost some support or she is going to retire.
I hope Anthony Weiner would take her place. Weiner has went after faux news,beck,and republicans.
Shueler says he will recruit more blue dawgs for the House.
oh groan
http://www.citizen-times.com/article/20101104/NEWS/311040031/1003/ARCHIVES
This is a frickin nightmare happening right in front of us.
And I wonder how many Obama loyalists understand what’s happening. Some of them don’t care, I get that, but some are liberals or progressives, the Obama loyalists that I know are, and just aren’t seeing where this is going nor the part Obama is playing in it.
Well, I know what the story will be. It’s not their fault. It’s our fault!! It’s all OUR fault for not understanding so much mugnificance.
Just a reminder and a wrinkle – Bill Clinton came to NC to campaign for Heath just 12 days before the election.
I’d love to see the democrats primary Obama. I don’t think they will ever do it however and they will NEVER run and support the one candidate I’d love to see them get behind. If they did primary him it would be Howard Dean or someone like that. I’ve even heard Elizabeth Warren’s name bandied about. I like Elizabeth Warren but, I’m not sure she could be POTUS in this climate. As tough as things are right now I don’t even think Hillary would WANT to run in this climate.
This entire thing is such a mess and was so easily prevented. I’m not happy about it at ALL. I’d like to go in a time machine and get back the dems I thought I knew and start over from scratch…fantasy is about all that I see that’s “hopeful” these days. It’s just going to be one hell of a bumpy ride. I really feel for how much this has hurt the country having a DINO for POTUS and now a republican house…all after the nightmare of GWB.
Interesting. You think if Dems primary Obama it’ll be with a liberal. I’m beginning to think if they do it it’ll be a conservative.
I’m thinking these Dems want to be in power and it doesn’t matter so much what they DO, like if they were playing football they want to have the ball and they want to run it past a goalpost but they’ve forgotten that it matters WHICH goalpost for it to be a Democratic win.
What do you think about Feingold?
Can’t see Russ. Besides he would no doubt limit himself to spending like zero dollars and no pac money accepted.
I look for Evan Bayh to dip his toes.
Yeah. I can see that.
Feingold said he’s not interested in primarying Obama.
Maybe he could change his mind though?
But I would still most like to see Hillary 2012….somehow, some way (?)
I’m so tired – I just looked at where it says “about Sky Dancers” and I saw “about Sky Divers”.
Have fun with this one…..
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20101104/ap_on_bi_ge/us_aarp_health_plan
Hillary 2012
bastards…
Stupid people still believe that AARP lobbies for seniors. Had the argument just today with my older brother.
A Hillary/Feingold ticket would be fantastic as far as I am concerned but, you’re right about them not running this ticket. Dean’s name keeps coming up. Maybe Evan Byah is exactly who they would run but, they are absolutely not going to primary Obama. They’ll just go ahead and lose to a republican before they will primary Obama.