Dead Bank Walking

zombie-road-sign The Treasury just gave ten big banks the okay to repay their Tarp Funds.  The gang of ten includes J.P Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, American Express, Bank of New York Mellon, US Bancorp, Capital One Financial Corp, and Northern Trust.  This basically gives positive identification to our zombie banks.  The three most worrisome are Citibank, Wells Fargo, and Bank of America Corp essentially creating a two-tier banking system.   The second tier banks had to give the Treasury their plans to raise capital, while the other banks turn back their funds.

As part of the bank bailout program, known as the Capital Purchase Program, the 10 institutions eligible to repay TARP have the right to repurchase warrants the Treasury holds at fair market value.

The 10 financial institutions already paid $1.8 billion in dividend payments to the Treasury over the last seven months, bringing the total of all dividend payments to $4.5 billion.

Proceeds from the repayments go to the Treasury’s general account, which is used to reduce Treasury’s borrowing and reduce the national debt. The funds could also be used to provide further capital to troubled financial institutions as part of the TARP program.

Other smaller banks have also returned bank bailout funds, bringing the total in returns to $70 billion.

As part of the program, J.P. Morgan is eligible to return $25 billion in TARP funds, Goldman Sachs, $10 billion, and Morgan Stanley, $10 billion.

BB& T plans to repay $3.1 billion in TARP funds it received, according to a statement from the institution Tuesday. U.S. Bancorp announced plans to buy out $6.6 billion in TARP capital, the bank reported Tuesday.

Other eligible institutions include American Express, $3.4 billion, Bank of New York Mellon, $3 billion, and State Street Bank, $2 billion.

The Zombie three have began some encouraging steps like removing a few board directors.  The FDIC (Sheila Bair) is encouraging a shake up of top management. Citi plans to exchange some preferred securities for common stock. But will these steps be enough? Can we really trust so much of our economy’s lending and spending power to zombies?

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Ginsberg Puts the Brakes on the Chrysler Deal

1928 Chrysler ImperialI’ve talked about the issues involving primacy of commercial bond debt and the issues in the Obama administration attempt to wheel-and-deal GM and Chrysler around the standard bankruptcy process. It seems Supreme Court Justice Ruth Ginsberg may have similar concerns. She put a stay on the sale of Chrysler to Fiat. The action puts into question the future of Chrylser in that there will be no other bidders for Chrysler if this deal does not go through by June 15. It also would cause bond holders to re-visit the GM restructure.

This from Scotus Blog.

The action had almost no legal significance, however. The deal remains in legal limbo until Ginsburg, as the Circuit Justice, or the full Court takes some definitive action. There is now no timetable for further action at the Supreme Court, although the terms of the deal allow Chrysler’s new business spouse — Fiat, the Italian automaker — to back out as of next Monday if the deal has not closed. Moreover, the papers filed in the Supreme Court have suggested that Chrysler is losing money at the rate of $100 million a day, pending the sale. That gives the Justices some incentive not to let much time pass before acting.

Among the likely explanations for Ginsburg’s action:

* Ginsburg may have decided to share the decision on what to do with her eight colleagues, and they needed more time to think or talk about it.

* Members of the Court may have decided that they wanted to give some explanation, or perhaps some may have decided to dissent and wanted a chance to prepare a statement saying so. In the meantime, it was her task, as the Circuit Justice, to impose a limited stay.

* Ginsburg or the Court may be waiting to see how the Second Circuit explains its decision to uphold the terms of the sale. The Circuit Court issued no opinion on Friday, indicating that such an explanation would come “in due course,” although the expectation was that one or more opinions would emerge from those judges on Monday.

The wording of Ginsburg’s order — “stayed pending further order” — is the conventional way by which a Justice or the Court carries out an action that is expected to be short in duration, and not controlling — or even hinting at — the ultimate outcome. Any speculation that her order meant the Court was leaning toward a further postponement would be unfounded.

Use by the Obama administration of TARP funds may be at the heart of the issue, although there is no way to determine that from the stay. This from Yahoo news.

Chrysler claims the agreement with Fiat is the best deal it can get for its assets and is critical to the company’s plan to emerge from Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.

But a trio of Indiana state pension and construction funds, which hold a small part of Chrysler’s debt, have been fighting the sale, claiming that it unfairly favors Chrysler’s unsecured stakeholders ahead of secured debtholders like themselves.

As part of Chrysler’s restructuring plan, the automaker’s secured debtholders will receive $2 billion, or about 29 cents on the dollar, for their combined $6.9 billion in debt. The Indiana funds bought their $42.5 million in debt in July 2008 for 43 cents on the dollar.

The funds also are challenging the constitutionality of the Treasury Department’s use of money from the Troubled Asset Relief Program to supply Chrysler’s bankruptcy protection financing. They say the government did so without congressional authority.

Consumer groups and individuals with product-related lawsuits also are contesting a condition of the Chrysler sale that would release the company from product liability claims related to vehicles it sold before the “New Chrysler” partnered with Fiat is created.

Individuals with claims against “Old Chrysler” would have to seek compensation from the parts of the company not being sold to Fiat. But those assets have limited value and it’s doubtful that there will be anything available to pay consumer claims.

The appeals come as Congress intensifies its scrutiny of the Obama administration’s government-led restructuring of Chrysler and General Motors Corp. The Senate Banking Committee said it planned to call Ron Bloom, a senior adviser to the auto task force, and Edward Montgomery, who serves as the Obama administration’s director of recovery for auto communities and workers, to a hearing Wednesday.

Sen. Christopher Dodd, D-Conn., the committee’s chairman, planned to review the use of TARP funds to help the auto companies and look at whether taxpayers will receive a return on their investment.

GM and Chrysler executives faced questions last week from Congress over the elimination of hundreds of dealerships as part of the companies’ reorganizations.


Smoking Green Shoots Won’t Change the Numbers

H/T Calculuated Risk who reports that Bankruptcies in May UP. http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/06/consumer-bankruptcy-filings-up-sharply.html

H/T Calculuated Risk who reports that Bankruptcies in May UP. http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/06/consumer-bankruptcy-filings-up-sharply.html

I’ve been hesitant to dissect the recent bad news on the unemployment front too much because it’s going to get a lot worse and I’ll probably have more to say on that later. Remember, we’re just beginning to unwind the automobile industry and the affiliated small businesses and industries that it sustains. As that occurs, there will be a multiplying effect in small towns every where. Most of these small cities are sustained by car dealers and maybe one or two factories, as these businesses disappear, so will the small businesses providing services to employees. It’s going to get much worse folks. Since we’ve had stories from some of our own friends, we know that that impact strikes our near and dear.

That’s why I’ve been really confused as to why the administration seems to think by just talking up a few possible changes, which could yet be classified as random variation given there has not been enough time to actually establish a statistically significant pattern, they expect wishful change. Perhaps it’s just a continuation of the election season. If it’s repeatedly read from a teleprompter, it will happen. Just clap REALLY loud if you believe in green shoots!!! It will revive the economy!

The first crack in the plaster happened when Goolsbee let slip this little GEM on Fox News on Sunday.  Michael Bowman writes:

The White House says America’s employment picture is worse than the Obama administration had anticipated just a few months ago. The somber admission follows the latest jobless report showing the highest unemployment rate the United States has seen in more than 25 years.

U.S. unemployment jumped a half percent in May, to 9.4 percent prompting this comment by Austan Goolsbee, a member of President Barack Obama’s Council of Economic Advisors:

“The economy clearly has gotten substantially worse from the initial predictions that were being made, not just by the White House, but by all of the private sector,” said Austan Goolsbee.

Economists point out that the current jobless rate is already higher than the hypothetical rate that was used to calculate the health of banks and other financial institutions in so-called “stress tests” earlier this year. And, the upward unemployment trajectory is expected to continue in coming months, even if the overall economy begins to recover.

Austan Goolsbee spoke on Fox News Sunday:

“It is going to be a rough patch [difficult period], not just in the immediate term, but for a little bit of time [in the future],” he said. “You have to turn the economy around, and jobs and job growth tends to come after you turn the economy around.”

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Unraveling the Greed

satellite photo after hurricane katrinia poland aveI remember during my Hurricane Katrina Exile from New Orleans that I was invited by a good friend and colleague to attend a gathering of social workers and others to discuss the impact of being “unbanked” and hearing about predatory lending practices. For about two years, I did several research papers and gathered quite a collection of stock prices and balance sheet information on DiTech, Advance America, Dollar Financial, and other credit type companies that provide a bevy of financial services to the poor. At the time, I also put Wells Fargo into that mix. I was studying the impact of monetary policy on this little studied area of financial institutions. I basically argued that the increasing reliance on this type of company for debt financing and the potential volatility in their portfolios could explode and impact the larger financial markets. I’m looking back at my paper (dated December 6, 2006) and remembering how everyone thought that a trivial question at the time it was presented.

Here are some questions that I asked in my introduction.

Traditional lenders achieve profits from low operating costs and positive interest rate spreads. Credit Services Companies hold risky assets, charge numerous fees (some not covered by Truth-in-Lending Laws), and have higher than normal interest rates due to the nature of the borrower or the loan. Some of these companies are associated with banks that have fiduciary responsibilities. Others rely on commercial paper or retained earnings to finance loans. Companies such as Dollar Financial specialize in servicing the consumers called the “unbanked” or “underbanked”. They charge fees to cash checks and receive fees from utilities to take payments from cash paying customers. Franklin Credit specializes in subprime lending in the mortgage area.

One of the most interesting trends in this particular business has been the spread of credit service company branches into poor and working class neighborhoods vacated by traditional financial institutions. It is really difficult to drive around a poor neighborhood and find a bank branch these days. It is very easy to find a branch of a credit services company on nearly every block. Credit service companies are also aggressive marketers. GMAC, traditionally the lending arm of General Motors for floor plan loans to dealers and car loans to those unable to get bank loans is the parent company of Ditech; undoubtedly the most over-advertised Credit Service Company on television.

Do these companies respond to interest rate movements and volatility in rates the same way that more traditional financial institutions like banks do? Do their already high spreads protect them? Do their many fees provide them with some insulation from interest rate movement? OR will many of the come crashing down in a period of high interest rates or an economic downturn? What will this mean to the high number of un-banked? The Federal Reserve Bank, GNMA and FNMA have developed an interest in credit sector companies recently. Sallie Mae is under some scrutiny by Congress for its considerable profits. The Fed reports and monitors those credit companies owned by bank holding companies. Their aggregate financial data is published monthly at the Board of Governor’s Website. There appears to be increasing interest by many parties in these financial institutions but little is understood about how their explosive growth will impact the financial system at large.

I basically had to quit the research line at the time and switch to something less ‘kitschy’ as one senior researcher told me. However, I keep going back to my work on predatory lenders when I read something like this in the NY Times:

Bank Accused of Pushing Mortgage Deals on Blacks.

right wingI was aware that there were a lot of lending seminars going on in my neighborhood. I live in the ninth ward in New Orleans. My neighborhood is the very antithesis to the gated suburban community. I am the minority here. These seminars were sponsored most times by ACORN (their HQ is less than a mile from my house) and local churches. I used to get fliers all the time on my front door of the little house I bought with my FHA loan. Wells Fargo has my loan now. My loan probably qualifies under the CRA. I wish I still had the fliers or that I actually had gone to one of the meetings, because I thought it odd that these seminars would be offering chances to meet with actual lenders. I was never motivated to actually go to one.

It came as no surprise to me then to read this in the NY Times article.

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Narro Math?

girl-math I never thought about math much until I found out, some where around 12 or so, that girls weren’t supposed to be good at it.  Ever the tomboy,  I just had to prove them wrong and I’ve frequently been the only woman (and definitely the only American woman) in advanced math classes at university.  Both my daughters excel at math.  However, the old stereotype has been out there for my mother and grandmothers as well as my daughters and me.  Ask current Obama economic adviser Larry Summers who stirred up women scientists every where with this gem during his tenure as Harvard’s president.

This was the point that most angered some of the listeners, several of whom said Summers said that women do not have the same ”innate ability” or ”natural ability” as men in some fields.

Asked about this, Summers said, ”It’s possible I made some reference to innate differences. . . I did say that you have to be careful in attributing things to socialization. . . That’s what we would prefer to believe, but these are things that need to be studied.”

Summers said cutting-edge research has shown that genetics are more important than previously thought, compared with environment or upbringing. As an example, he mentioned autism, once believed to be a result of parenting but now widely seen to have a genetic basis.

In his talk, according to several participants, Summers also used as an example one of his daughters, who as a child was given two trucks in an effort at gender-neutral parenting. Yet she treated them almost like dolls, naming one of them ”daddy truck,” and one ”baby truck.”

It was during his comments on ability that Hopkins, sitting only 10 feet from Summers, closed her computer, put on her coat, and walked out. ”It is so upsetting that all these brilliant young women [at Harvard] are being led by a man who views them this way,” she said later in an interview.

More and more evidence demonstrates just the opposite of the stereotype.  Girls can and do kick ass at math.  It’s not women scientiststhat they lack they aptitude, they lack they opportunity and environment to do so.  Science Daily reports that study after study now show that it’s  Culture, Not Biology, Underpins Math Gender Gap.  Both Riverdaughter and I live the nightmare that comes with being woman practitioners of a field that requires heavy math.  She is a research chemist doing work on drugs.  I am an economist who relies heavily on econometrics and models that borrow heavy from physics models.  One of my colleagues, another woman economist from Finland who absolutely kicks ass when it comes to high level mathematical models on trade, has similar stories.  One friend I’ve had the longest has taught university level math for nearly 30 years now. At various times,  I’ve had to adopt some kind of charade to make my numeracy less threatening to colleagues, bosses, and institutions. It adds a completely different dimension to how you do your work.  You can do it, you can kick ass at it, but you have to make sure that you’re deferential enough not to make the boys pee their pants and vote you off their islands.  It’s a strange, demented and twisted kabuki dance.

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