Selling the Right to Pollute

smoke_stacksI decided I need a break from the finance side of the economy for awhile and start a discussion on the Obama Administration’s Cap and Trade initiative.  This is an extremely controversial plan and will basically cause political alignments of states and regions more than party affiliation.  Cap and Trade programs have been discussed in economic circles for some time but have never been seriously considered  anywhere but Europe, so let’s start with the basics of what may be an unfamiliar topic.  Several years ago, I was asked to sign my name to a list of economists supporting the initiative.  In the interest of open discussion, I’ll let you know that  I passed on request.

Cap and Trade Systems are also known as emissions trading or more traditionally, allowance trading.  The idea is that a company recieves an “allowance” to release a particular pollutant into the environment.  It can either hold the allowance and release the pollutant, sell the allowance and give up any right to release the pollutant, or buy others’ allowances and receive a higher allowance to release the pollutant.  In other words, the allowance would be a marketable asset that would be priced in a market.  This makes the approach “market-based’.

The goal of a Cap and Trade System is to steadily reduce the emission of the pollutant.  Int the case of the Obama Administration’s initiative, the pollutants are carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions.  Initially, some one has to decide the initial acceptable ‘allowance’.  This basically establishes the ‘cap’.   Here’s the description of the ‘cap’ given by the Center for American Progress.

Each large-scale emitter, or company, will have a limit on the amount of greenhouse gas that it can emit. The firm must have an “emissions permit” for every ton of carbon dioxide it releases into the atmosphere. These permits set an enforceable limit, or cap, on the amount of greenhouse gas pollution that the company is allowed to emit. Over time, the limits become stricter, allowing less and less pollution, until the ultimate reduction goal is met. This is similar to the cap and trade program enacted by the Clean Air Act of 1990, which reduced the sulfur emissions that cause acid rain, and it met the goals at a much lower cost than industry or government predicted.

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Nobody Knows You When You’re Down and Out

The military patrols in front of my house after Hurricane Katrina:  Hummers, guns, and soldiers

The military patrols in front of my house after Hurricane Katrina: Hummers, guns, and soldiers

I moved to New Orleans sight unseen about 14 years ago.  It’s a city with much charm and beauty, tons of eccentricities and eccentrics, and it’s own brand of food, architecture and music that make you feel like you’re not quite in the US.   For as much culture shock as I experienced when I first moved down here from cold, efficient, clean, crime free,  marvelously developed and governed Minneapolis, I’ve learned to love my quirky home.  I really don’t feel right when I go other places these days.  It always feels like something is missing.   I come back again to New Orleans own brand of wonderful food which rivals its music and architecture for my love and adoration.  All of them are cheap, readily available, and wonderful.  For those of us that live here, those cultural things completely outweigh the lack of amenities and civilities found around the rest of the country.

Hurricane Katrina changed some things.  I was hoping that the aftermath would bring the best parts of this city to light so that we would be appreciated as the National Treasure that is New Orleans.  It seems folks were fascinated with us for awhile, but there’s always a new thing to distract our fickle media and citizenry.  For every celebrity and charity that is still hanging in here with our painfully slow recovery, there is now the old refrain that there is something ‘not quite right’ with us.

The first thing I would like to do is to ask Time Magazine if this headline is really necessary?  Is Baghdad Now Safer Than New Orleans? The article uses murder statistics around the world to compare to the level of violence experienced in Baghdad.  Even this quote shows the reach to meet the comparison.  It further dismisses the roots of our problems which are related to our huge problems with black-on-black crime associated with drug use, poor education systems, and basic lack of opportunity for inner city teenagers.  How do the problems of a largely ignored, poorly run and funded US city compare on any level with a city in a developing nation that we invaded only to unleash a set of bloody tribal wars?

Let’s go to the numbers: Caracas, with about 3.2 million people, is in a bloody league of its own, with an estimated murder rate of 130 per 100,000 residents according to government figures. Cape Town is about the same size as Caracas but nearer to Baghdad’s murder rate with 62 violent deaths per 100,000 people. New Orleans, with an estimated post-Katrina population of just over 300,000, is tiny in size compared to its rivals. But the number of murders is huge; figures vary, but even the low estimate puts the city on a par with Cape Town. By way of comparison, Moscow, one of the most violent cities in Europe, has an estimated murder rate of just 9.6 per 100,000 residents. New York City’s murder rate is 6.2, Washington D.C.’s about 32.

Today, the NY Times had a feature article on our goofball mayor, Ray Nagin who may have just achieved the lowest approval rating of all times, any where. Here’s the article: Term Limits Say New Orleans Mayor Can’t Return; Residents Say They Don’t Mind.

In a recent poll by the University of New Orleans, Mr. Nagin was cited as one of the “biggest problems” for the city, coming in third after crime and education. Just 24 percent of residents over all said they approved of the mayor, a drop from 31 percent the year before.

“It’s the worst approval rating we’ve reported since 1986,” when the poll was first conducted, said Robert T. Sims, the director of the university’s survey research center.

Among African-Americans, support dropped to 36 percent from about half of those polled last year. Among whites, who constituted much of Mr. Nagin’s voting base in his first election, the approval rating was 5 percent. (The survey’s margin of sampling error for whites was plus or minus five percentage points.)

Edward F. Renwick, a retired professor of political science at Loyola University and a pollster himself, said he found that figure surprising. “I have hardly ever seen 5 percent,” Dr. Renwick said. On the other hand, he added, “I have never met a white person who doesn’t hate him.”

That sentiment can be seen in a $2 bumper sticker that has become popular in the city’s souvenir shops. In vivid Mardi Gras colors, it says: “May 31, 2010: Nagin’s Last Day. Proud to See Him Gone.”

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Zombie Negotiations

I’m at the end of my semester which is the time when students that should’ve showed up in my office months ago suddenly feel they can negotiate a different result than the one listed in my syllabus and on my grade sheet.  I’ve noticed this pattern in all my years of teaching.  I get about a handful of them right after the first test that say, sheesh, I don’t think I get this what can I do?  I get more than a handful the week before finals, when their grades are pretty much a given, saying, sheesh, I don’t think I can get this, what can you do for me?

There’s an implicit contract between me and my students and a good deal of it is stated in the syllabus which all of  them get at the beginning of the semester.  Over the years, it’s grown to being a pamphlet of sorts.  Much of this has to do with either accreditation or legal requirements (like what to do if you’re disabled and need help with things).  A lot of it is me trying to be absolutely, positively clear that we agree on the expectations we have in this class. I spend the entire first day going over all of these things and they all nod in agreement, don’t ask many questions, and hope they can leave early.

Why do I feel like the Fed is waving a syllabus in front of a few recalcitrant banks over the results of the so-called stress test?   Are they asking why didn’t you come to us sooner when you had a problem?  How much of a softie is the Fed going to be when a few of them want to renegotiate what it means to get an A,B,C, D, or F?

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The Hedge Fund Empire Strikes Back

chrysler-logoThe role of hedge funds in the bankruptcy of Chrysler and GM will probably be discussed and studied for some time.  It’s not often this POTUS singles out a Financial Institution for scorn since they’ve all been major donors to his campaign but POTUS made an exception when announcing the Chrysler bankruptcy.  Evidently, POTUS was not amused that a few of them would not bend to his will on the deal.

The most interesting thing is that the spoilers are now responding.  They are not only responding, they are making it clear that the group the cut the deal were TARP fund babies and they were not.  They are actively referring themselves as the No-Tarp Gang just to make that perfectly clear.

Also, interesting is the tone of the coverage concerning the bankruptcy.   A Motor Trend blog has a headline screaming  Chrysler Bankruptcy “Cruel” Result of Hedge Fund Greediness. Motor Trend obviously has more interest in the Car Makers than the Deal Makers and there in lies the rub.  The government-brokered deal, led by four of the biggest Tarp Babies, puts interests that are usually at the back of the line in corporate bankruptcy at the front.  Basically the union employees could potentially lose it all in the bankruptcy court.

This deal, turns the entire idea of the safety and primacy of bonds in a bankruptcy deal upside down which could argueably further destabilize financial markets. So, before you accuse me of being anti-union here, which I’m not, let me talk about that.   Bonds are usually first in line in any bankruptcy.  It’s why they are considered less risky and yield less than their riskier cousins, the equities.  Folks that buy corporate bonds play an important role in the market.  They provide corporations with huge, long term sources of cash at better terms than any one of them could get from a bank.

If a deal can be cut that undercuts the nature of bonds, what would this mean to other bond holders in other deals that are likely in the bankruptcy pipe?  (This would include GM and other industries.) Could this deal actually destabilize the primacy of bonds in the bankruptcy hierarchy?  Is that what the fuss is about?   Are they being greedy?  Are they looking out for their investors?  Are they posturing?  I don’t think we quite know yet. But, the Hedge Funds spoke up as reported in today’s WAPO.

President Obama’s harsh attack on hedge funds he blamed for forcing Chrysler into bankruptcy yesterday sparked cries of protest from the secretive financial firms that hold about $1 billion of the automaker’s debt.

Hedge funds and investment managers were irate at Obama’s description of them as “speculators” who were “refusing to sacrifice like everyone else” and who wanted “to hold out for the prospect of an unjustified taxpayer-funded bailout.”

“Some of the characterizations that were used today to refer to us as speculators or to say we’re looking for a bailout is really unfair,” said one executive who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter. “What we’re looking for is a reasonable payout on the value of the debt . . . more in line with what unions and Fiat were getting.”

George Schultze, the managing member of the hedge fund Schultze Asset Management, a Chrysler bondholder, said, “We are simply seeking to enforce our bargained-for rights under well-settled law.”

“Hopefully, the bankruptcy process will help refocus on this issue rather than on pointing fingers at lenders,” he said.

I supposed that I don’t have to tell you that hedge funds are not charitable organizations but many of them actually invest for charitable organizations, along with unions and state and government workers.  Their clientele can be anything from a small group of rich investors, to  you and me, actually. We’ve heard a lot about them recently but most people, I’d speculate, don’t know a lot about what they are and what they do.  Hedge funds came onto the scene in the 1950s and what mostly defines them is their regulation regime.

Here’s an easy definition from a website at the University of Iowa.

“Hedge fund” is a general, non-legal term that was originally used to describe a type of private and unregistered investment pool that employed sophisticated hedging and arbitrage techniques to trade in the corporate equity markets. Hedge funds have traditionally been limited to sophisticated, wealthy investors. Over time, the activities of hedge funds broadened into other financial instruments and activities. Today, the term “hedge fund” refers not so much to hedging techniques, which hedge funds may or may not employ, as it does to their status as private and unregistered investment pools.

Hedge funds are similar to mutual funds in that they both are pooled investment vehicles that accept investors’ money and generally invest it on a collective basis. However, they are regulated in significantly different ways. Up until 2005, hedge funds in the United States often relied on Section 4(2) and Rule 506 of Regulation D of the Securities Act of 1933 to avoid having to register their securities with the Securities and Exchange Commission of the United States (SEC).  Further, to avoid regulation regarding mutual funds (a type of “investment company”), hedge funds relied on Sections 3(c)(1) and 3(c)(7) of the Investment Company Act of 1940. In short, hedge funds escaped most U.S. regulation directed at other investment vehicles such as mutual funds.

European nations regulate hedge funds by either regulating the type of investor who can invest in a hedge fund or by regulating the minimum subscription level required to invest in a hedge fund. In the years to come, experts are predicting the rise of an alternative regulatory framework that will be tiered yet flexible.

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