Monday Reads: Transitions

Good Afternoon!

Suffragette Emmeline Pankhurst in a Polling Booth circa 1910. She was one of the leaders of the movement to secure votes for women.

Suffragette Emmeline Pankhurst in a Polling Booth circa 1910. She was one of the leaders of the movement to secure votes for women.

There are some interesting reads out there as America head to the polls tomorrow.  I’ve got two bits of analysis from our Brit cousins’ media to share.  I’m particularly fond of Barbara Kingsolver’s contribution yesterday at The Guardian.   Let me share the headline with you.  “End this misogynistic horror show. Put Hillary Clinton in the White House”.

I’m horrified to watch the bizarre pageant of my nation pretending these two contenders are equivalent. No one really imagines Donald Trump applying himself to the disciplines of the presidency, staying up late reading reams of legislation, instead of firing off juvenile tweets. It’s even harder to imagine Clinton indulging in the boorish self-aggrandisement, intellectual laziness, racism and vulgar contempt for the opposite gender that characterise her opponent. If anyone still doubts that the inexperienced man gets promoted ahead of the qualified woman, you can wake up now.

This race is close. Polls tell us most Americans believe Trump has sexually assaulted women (to name just one potential disqualifier). A majority also believe Clinton “can’t be trusted”, for unspecified reasons. We’re back to the ancient conundrum: a woman can’t be that smart and commanding, so either her womanliness or her smartness must be counterfeit. To set that hazy discomfort next to a sexual assaulter and call these defects “equivalent” is causing my ears to ring as I write.

Read it.  All of it.

loc_suffragistscastingvotesLexington–at The Economist–has an a good explanation for Trump voters.  This one makes sense to me.  He compares the motives of voters to those folks that love the Stand Your Ground laws.  They want to shoot at anything that frightens at them with no consequences to protect them and theirs.

Partisanship explains some of this gigantic folly, as does widespread distrust of the Democratic nominee, Hillary Clinton. But another cause lies in something harder to criticise: the desire of most people to think of themselves as good and useful citizens, capable of providing for and keeping safe those people and values dear to them. After more than a year of meeting Republican voters and Trump supporters at rallies and campaign events and twice interviewing the candidate himself, Lexington is unexpectedly struck on election eve by echoes from America’s stand-your-ground movement. That movement has led dozens of states to pass laws which allow gun-owners to use lethal force when they reasonably believe that their safety is threatened, with no duty to retreat when they are in their home or other lawful place. Vitally, this defence can be invoked even if householders misjudge the perils that they face, in the heat of the moment.

Critics call such laws vigilante justice. They cite horrible mistakes, as when stranded motorists are shot dead for knocking on a door in search of directions or a telephone. Some see racial bias at work when courts absolve white householders of killing black men who alarmed them. But once passed, such laws are difficult to repeal. For that would involve convincing supporters that they are wrong to believe that they are the last and best line of defence for their family and property—a hard task.

Quite a few Republicans, including those who initially backed more mainstream rivals in their party’s presidential primaries, sound strikingly like stand-your-ground advocates when defending a vote for Mr Trump. Even if not every Trump voter takes all his promises literally, they feel heeded and respected when someone of his stature—a very rich man who could be a member of the elite, but instead chooses to side with them—agrees that their home, America, is under assault, whether from foreign governments scheming to “rape” the economy or by Muslim terrorists allowed in as refugees. At rallies in swing states from Arizona to North Carolina, this reporter has heard the cheers when Mr Trump roars that America has every right to fight back, even if that involves rough justice or being “so tough”, as he puts it.

Our first woman Attorney General has died after suffering with Parkinson’s disease.  Janet Reno passed at the age of 78.suffragettes-572904

Janet Reno, the strong-minded Florida prosecutor tapped by Bill Clinton to become the country’s first female U.S. attorney general, and who shaped the U.S. government’s responses to the largest legal crises of the 1990s, died Nov. 7 at her home in Miami. She was 78.

The cause was complications from Parkinson’s disease, her goddaughter, Gabrielle D’Alemberte, told the Associated Press. Ms. Reno was diagnosed with Parkinson’s in 1995, while she was attorney general.

Ms. Reno brought a fierce independence to her job. From the FBI siege of the Branch Davidian compound in Texas to the investigation into Clinton’s sexual relationship with intern Monica Lewinsky, she was adamant that her prosecutors and agents work outside the influence of politics, media or popular opinion.

Her supporters believed she brought a heightened level of integrity and professionalism to the attorney general’s office. They admired her insistence on legal exactitude from her employees and praised her caution in prosecutions.

Sam Wang of Princeton Consortium has spoken.  We’re going to see Madam President.

Three sets of data point in the same direction:

  • The state poll-based Meta-Margin is Clinton +2.6%.
  • National polls give a median of Clinton +3.0 +/- 0.9% (10 polls with a start date of November 1st or later).
  • Early voting patterns approximately match 2012, a year when the popular vote was Obama +3.9%.

Based on this evidence, if Hillary Clinton does not win on Tuesday it will be a giant surprise.

There’s been buzz about the Princeton Election Consortium’s win probability for Clinton, which for some time has been in the 98-99% range. Tonight let me walk everyone through how we arrive at this level of confidence. I will also give a caveat on how it is difficult to estimate win probabilities above 90% – and why fine adjustments at this level do not matter for my goals in running this site.

Here’s Hillary’s Closer. 

“I think we can all agree it’s been a long campaign. But tomorrow, you get to pick our next president,” Clinton says, dressed in white, looking into the camera as the ad opens.
The choice on Tuesday, the Democratic nominee says, is a simple one: “Is America dark and divisive, or hopeful and inclusive?”
The ad was billed by a campaign official on Monday morning as a “personal and positive closing message,” following what has been a long slog of an election, some 18 months after two polarizing figures began their rise to the nomination — one a distrusted figure and mainstay of American politics, the other a divisive outsider defined by a campaign of offensive remarks.

freedom-to-voteMany of us have recent history in our backgrounds where voting has been illegal or close to impossible. Even today, many of us may wait in long lines to exercise our duty and our right as a citizen because a small group of people do not want to hear our voices.

This is our day.  It’s the day we vote for all of the folks who couldn’t and we vote for all of the children who can’t vote right now but will in the future.

Let’s vote for hope.  Let’s vote for people.  Let’s vote for Hillary.

What’s on your reading and blogging list today?


85 Comments on “Monday Reads: Transitions”

  1. Jslat says:

    Thanks for this post, Dak!

    I have been tearing up all day. I had a conversation with my 8 year old granddaughter who has become a mini Hillary warrior since she declared that she wanted the nice girl to win not that scary man. When I think of finally voting for Hillary, my granddaughter’s hopes and future almost knock me down. As a woman of 70, I will be so proud to have my hopes realized. But it is the look on my granddaughter’s face, when she heard about Hillary running for POTUS, as she said, “that means I can be President when I grow up!”that I will see when I enter that voting booth tomorrow. I’ll be thinking of my 93 year old mother who says, “It’s about time we had a woman President!” I will vote thinking of my intelligent talented hard-working daughter who hopefully will be finally able to receive equal pay for equal work. Hopes and dreams of four generations of women will follow me to the poll tomorrow.

  2. bostonboomer says:

    Just one more day to go! I’m going to vote in the morning so if my post is a little later than usual tomorrow, please forgive me.

    • ANonOMouse says:

      Happy Voting BB. I already cast my vote, so I’m going to make some TACO’s to celebrate the Latino/Hispanic voters who’ve come out in droves to tell Trump HELL NO, we won’t go!

      And don’t worry about your post tomorrow, put up a talking thread and we’ll celebrate with each other until you return.

      I’M WITH HER…………….HILLARY 2016

      • bostonboomer says:

        Good idea. I’ll do that before I go out. I want to vote early so I can watch TV and obsess all day on the internet, lol

        • ANonOMouse says:

          I’ll be obsessing with you. I’ve been keyed up for so long I’ll probably crash when this is all over. I can’t even imagine how exhausted Hillary must be.

      • contrask says:

        Darn Mouse, tacos tomorrow is a great idea! I’m eating them tonight & bought steak for tomorrow. I promise it’s not Trump steaks, though 🙂

      • Fannie says:

        Add this to your recipes: Mexican Rice (Sopa De Arroz)
        2 c. long grain rice (uncooked)
        1/4 c. canola oil (or lard)
        1/4c green onions (chopped)
        3 c. chicken broth
        1 small can of tomato sauce
        1 or 2 cloves of minced garlic
        1 teas ground cumin or a little more
        Pepper and Salt
        Cilantro (chopped/optional)

        Use a large size fry pan (make sure you have a lid that fits). Fry the rice in the hot oil, cooking it until it is golden brown, stand there and stir. Add onions, garlic, cumin, tomato sauce, broth (you can use water, but I prefer chicken broth), and mix in to the rice. When you add the broth/tomato sauce, stand back because a lot of steam can hit you in the face. Bring it to a boil, stir, reduce the heat to a simmer, and cover, for about 25/30 minutes. Rice should be tender and all liquid should be absorded. Garnish with cilantro. I have been making this since 1970………….my grandkids were babies, and would tell me they wanted red rice.

        If you want more, let me know. I always cook Rosarita Fried Beans, put in sauce pan, add 1/4 c. evaporated milk, and hand full of shredded cheese. Cook on low, stir, and if you want add some of your homemade salsa.

        I would be over to eat off your plate if I could Mouse.

    • Fannie says:

      You go BB, you have always been here for us, tomorrow, you rock the vote.

    • NW Luna says:

      😀

      Enjoy your time voting!

      I wish I could vote in person — my state has all mail-in voting. I took a photo of my ballot filled in for Hillary.

  3. Delphyne49 says:

    What an emotional day – I vacillate between laughing or crying good tears.

    I loved this tweet to America – from The Free World to the Leader of The Free World.

  4. ANonOMouse says:

    Tomorrow night I will be thinking of my grandmother who had 4 of her 11 children before she was able to cast a vote. I’ll remember her recollections of setting up the polling places and cleaning up the polling places and taking food to the polling places before she was even allowed to cast a vote. She taught me that voting was my sacred duty and she took me along with her to vote the whole time I was growing up. Tomorrow I’ll toast my grandmother and all of the other women of her generation and all the generations of women of every race, color and creed who made it possible for Hillary Clinton to become the 45th President Of the United States.

    Cheers
    http://rs794.pbsrc.com/albums/yy228/jade95_2010/BLAME%20IT%20ON%20THE%20ALCOHOL/9d94aa2c.jpg~c200

  5. bostonboomer says:

    //platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    • ANonOMouse says:

      Well, if the people in that rally didn’t know he is a liar before, they do now. There was enough room in there for his Trump jet.

    • quixote says:

      Frank Luntz? The Frank Luntz? The Republican operative and propagandist? And he’s tweeting about what a loser the Cheeto-haired Dogpile is?

      Wow.

      Or have I got the wires crossed and this is some other Luntz?

  6. janicen says:

    Can’t wait for tomorrow. My husband and daughter are leaving work early so we can go vote together. I start crying when I just think about it. It means so much and we’ve worked and hoped for this for so long. I’m so glad to get to share this with Sky Dancers.

  7. janicen says:

    Daughter and I are saving our “I voted” stickers and plant to take them up to Seneca Falls in 2020 and stick them on Susan B. Anthony’s tombstone to commemorate the 100 year anniversary of women’s right to vote in the U.S.

    • Jslat says:

      I’m sending mine to my granddaughter.

      • janicen says:

        Here’s Hillary Facetiming with her granddaughter, Charlotte.

        • Enheduanna says:

          So this morning when I turned on the TV (before sitting down to work) – there’s Kellyanne talking about how “now we know Chelsea took $1mil from the Clinton Foundation to pay for her wedding”….

          and of course MSNBC saying nothing.

          {sigh}

          Cannot WAIT to see every MF cable news station declaring Hillary the winner tomorrow night. I hope they choke.

          • contrask says:

            Is that a Fox news narrative? I had someone at church tell me that Sun. I’m just done trying to push back on the crap. I helped elect the 1st woman president & the RWNJ’s are just going to have to get over it

        • bostonboomer says:

          I love that outfit on Hillary!

          • Fannie says:

            She was wearing red tonight, and looked great. I couldn’t hold back my tears, everybody was fastastic, and fired up.

        • NW Luna says:

          That is so sweet!

  8. Minkoff Minx says:

    Thanks Kathy for sharing this video on Facebook.

    I was able to tweet it.

  9. Pat Johnson says:

    Can’t wait to vote tomorrow. Going to have my car inspected after and plan on joining you guys here after.

    First thing I do when I return home is to send Boston Boomer an e-mail in tribute to all the years we stuck together in anticipation of this historic day.

    Keep your tissues handy. It is going to be a wet night!

  10. teele says:

    Well, my sister and I stood in line three hours this afternon at GVSU, and got about 60% toward the front when they closed the fieldhouse door, because the capacity of 4100 had been filled (that is double the population of the town I live in). The line behind us was longer than when we joined it. So we all crowded around the outside and listened to Hillary on a loudspeaker. Didn’t get to see her, but spent a lovely warm sunny Autumn afternoon surrounded by friendly folks of all ages who all love Hillary. I have to say, after what I saw today, I will sleep a lot more soundly tonight. Seriousy, I think we got this.

  11. Jslat says:

    Great Philly rally! I am so pumped for tomorrow. It’s been a long wild ride, hasn’t it? Can’t wait to be with all of you as we wait for the results! Let’s have champagne, fireworks, TACOS, and plenty of tissues! Goodnight! HILL A REE! HILL A REE! HILL A REE!

  12. Fannie says:

    I don’t know what my family is up to…………but something is going on behind my back, something is up their sleeves!

    From my son: To my Mother, a “stubborn and ornery” suffragette in her own right. Early congratulations on Hillary’s forthcoming presidency! He goes on to proudly talk about Jeanette Rankin!

    And here I am the Electress Mama. Crying and smiling! Soo soo happy for all my brothers and sisters who believed in Hillary Clinton.

    • Fannie says:

      100 Years ago (Nov 7, 1916) Jeanette Rankin who was born in 1880, Montana, fought for the women’s right to vote. In 1914, she succeeded in her state, went on to congress, to get the job done, she was a big part of the revolution. This article in Smithsonian yesterday goes on to say: It never did any good for all the suffragettes to come together and talk to each other. There will be no revolution unless we go out into the precincts. You have to be stubborn. Stubborn and Ornery. In 1973, as she watched Watergate, the one female lawyer she saw was Hillary Clinton…………….43 years later, we honor Jeanette Rankin, it’s been a long long long time coming. Today, Hillary Clinton is the Revolution we have been waiting for!

      http://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/today-we-honor-the-only-woman-who-ever-voted-to-give-women-the-right-to-vote-180961029/

  13. littleisis says:

    Just wanted to drop in to say I ❤️ you all.

  14. RalphB says:

    Election is officially under way in Dixville Notch, NH, The vote count was:

    Clinton 4
    Trump 2
    Johnson 1
    Romney 1

  15. Beata says:

    The day has arrived! I can barely contain my excitement. So glad you all are here.

    When Hillary is elected, she will work tirelessly to bring much-needed healing to our country and she will succeed! We can put these dark days behind us.

    • Beata says:

      Stronger Together! Not divided!

      “Every kingdom divided against itself will be ruined, and every city or household divided against itself will not stand.”

  16. janicen says:

  17. ANonOMouse says:

    My Early Election Day Contribution

  18. Beata says:

    I got so busy posting comments, I forgot to take my medication with breakfast. Bad, bad, bad. When will I learn?

    Take care, everyone. I will see you later. xoxo