Wednesday Reads: Math, Dogs and Sheep

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Good Mid-Morning

Just a quick thought this morning before we get to the links. Yesterday Boston Boomer linked to an article about Janet Yellen, and there were a few sentences that made me stop and think. Which is really something because usually when it comes to articles containing anything associated with numbers, my brain tends to retreat like a coward who is being bombarded by incoming aerial livestock.

la vache in flightBut seriously…the article Boston Boomer linked to was from CNN. Here is the quote:

CNN Money’s report on Yellen’s speech, Janet Yellen: Job market not recovered.

That was Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen’s main message Friday in a much anticipated speech.

“It speaks to the depth of the damage that, five years after the end of the recession, the labor market has yet to fully recover,” she said.

ae0607c9a034b49a4870b3b008599168The debate now is whether the job situation in America is healthy enough for the Federal Reserve to start raising interest rates, which have been at historic lows in recent years in an effort to jump start the economy. Yellen, however, said little new on Friday, and U.S. stock markets stayed flat.

Yellen is chair of the committee that sets interest rates, but she only gets one vote. Other members have differing views. The Fed board and other top economists are spending the weekend in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, debating these key issues.

Though the unemployment rate “has fallen considerably and at a surprisingly rapid pace,” Yellen said problems remain.

Emphasis mine.

Okay, maybe I am a bit hypersensitive, but why the specific mention about her getting only one vote. Is this something new? I was under the impression that whenever Greenspan or Bernake or Geithner spoke…it was as if the all powerful Oz had spoken. Doris from the Outer Hebrides by Ron Gilmore, via Flickr. Doris took a shortcut through the fern grove!!Especially with Greenspan, I mean that guy was the equivalent of verbal Dow Jones Industrial Average “pusher” in that whenever he opened his mouth…he spewed economic commentary uppers or downers.

Anyway, if this is not a big deal…then just forget about all that shit and continue with the post. As it is, the thread is late this morning. I got distracted finding images of sheep on Pinterest. Oh well, you know what that means…another dump. Link dump that is….

The latest news:

Two Men Abducted, Drowned in Philadelphia River, Third Man Escapes, Police Say – ABC News

The bodies of two men who had been bound were found today dumped a Philadelphia river, while a third man who had been repeatedly stabbed narrowly escaped the abductors believed to be responsible for the double homicide, authorities said.

The survivor, a 20-year-old man, was taken off the street by four or five men early this morning and thrown into the back of a van, police said.

He was then stabbed about nine times, in the torso and legs, Philadelphia police said, and his hands were tied behind his back with duct tape and his ankles were bound as well. Duct tape was also placed over his mouth, and once in the van, he realized there were two other people in the van who had also been bound, police said.

Valais Blacknose SheepAll three were taken to the Schuylkill River in Fairmount Park, where they were thrown into the water, police said, noting that the two other people were tethered to some kind of weight and drowned in five to ten feet of water.

This is a new story obviously so no real info as of yet…cops say they may have surveillance video of abduction.

And you may be one of the millions without internet service: Time Warner Cable Suffers Massive Outage

Time Warner Cable suffered a nationwide outage on Wednesday morning, leaving many users unable to access the Internet.

The company issued a statement to Mashable, acknowledging the outage and reporting that much of its service had been restored. TWC said the service outage was due to an issue with its “Internet backbone” that occurred during routine maintenance.

At 430am ET this morning during our routine network maintenance, an issue with our Internet backbone created disruption with our Internet and On Demand services. As of 6am ET services were largely restored as updates continue to bring all customers back online.

sheepish by karena goldfinch on FlickrTWC outage leaves 12M people without Internet access — and it’s only going to get worse

On Tuesday, Time Warner Cable agreed to pay the Federal Communications Commission $1.1 million for failing to disclose a “substantial number” of outages affecting its customers. Now today, the company announced that it is suffering from multiple outages affecting 12 million people.

Making matters worse is that many of those consumers probably didn’t have much choice when they signed up for the service, given Time Warner Cable’s effective monopoly in a number of its markets. As I wrote when I compared its service against the only other option for Internet service in my area,

The problem is, there are no options for someone living in the boonies. If they want to connect to the Internet they have to use something like [Finger Lakes Technologies Group, a regional Internet provider]; there are no other options. [...] So far as choices go, it’s clear that people who live in small towns like this one are totally screwed.

This is a problem all across the country. Many people have access to just a handful of ISPs, many of which are regional offerings that pale in comparison to their national counterparts, which enjoy a monopoly on the high-end service market in many of the places they operate.

8fcbafa0f238f79808e0fe22f6071cf6That problem will only be made worse if Time Warner Cable is allowed to merge with Comcast and become what Netflix called the “nation’s largest onramp to the Internet.” The combined company is unlikely to care much about leveling the playing field and allowing other ISPs to give consumers more options for Internet service. It’ll just amass as much power as it can.

Does that seem like a company that’s going to solve problems that lead to outages affecting 12 million people around the United States? Hell, even with the scant competition they have now, both Time Warner Cable and Comcast have done little to make their services better. As I wrote in May, the companies are the least-liked in every industry in which they operate. (Surprise!)

We have this problem with Windstream being the shitty internet service monopoly here in Banjoville.

Next: Why Israel’s bombardment of Gaza neighborhood left US officers ‘stunned’ | Al Jazeera America

The cease-fire announced Tuesday between Israel and Palestinian factions — if it holds — will end seven weeks of fighting that killed more than 2,200 Gazans and some 69 Israelis. But as the rival camps seek to put their spin on the outcome, one assessment of Israel’s Gaza operation that won’t be publicized is that of the U.S. military. Still, even though the Pentagon shies away from publicly expressing judgments that might fall afoul of a decidedly pro-Israel Congress, senior U.S. military sources speaking on condition of anonymity offered a scathing assessment of Israeli tactics, particularly in the battle for Shujaiya.

Eduardo GageiroOne of the more curious moments in Israel’s Operation Protective Edge came on July 20, when a live microphone at FOX News caught Secretary of State John Kerry commenting sarcastically on Israel’s military action: “It’s a hell of a pinpoint operation,” Kerry said. “It’s a hell of a pinpoint operation.”

Rain of high-explosive shells

The secretary of state’s comment followed the heaviest bombardment of the war to that point, as Israeli artillery rained thousands of high-explosive shells into the neighborhood of Shujaiya, a residential area on the eastern edge of Gaza City. A high-ranking U.S. military officer told this reporter that the source of Kerry’s apparent consternation was almost certainly a Pentagon summary report assessing the Israeli barrage, on which the Secretary had been briefed by an aide moments earlier.

Irving Penn - A young Berber shepherdess of the Aït Yazza people in the High Atlas, with a newborn lamb.According to this senior U.S. officer, who had access to the July 21 Pentagon summary of the previous 24 hours of Israeli operations, the internal report showed that 11 Israeli artillery battalions —a minimum of 258 artillery pieces in all, according to this officer’s estimate — had pumped at least 7,000 high explosive shells into the Gaza neighborhood, which included a barrage of some 4,800 shells during the seven-hour period marking the height of the operation. Senior U.S. officers were stunned by the report.

Twice daily throughout the Israel Defense Forces’ (IDF) operation, a select group of senior U.S. military and intelligence officers at the Pentagon received a lengthy written summary of Israeli military action in Gaza. The reports — compiled from information gleaned from open sources, Israeli military officers with whom U.S. officials speak and satellite images — offered a detailed assessment of Israel’s battlefield tactics and the performance of its weaponry, a considerable portion of it supplied by the United States.

Although these reports shy away from offering political judgments on the operation, a number of senior U.S. military officers who spoke about the contents of those daily reports with this reporter were highly critical of some of the IDF’s tactics, particularly in the Israeli ground invasion of Shujaiya. An official spokesman at the Pentagon declined to comment on the contents of this article.

65d7b88498df7aae340ab92e8d434944More at the link.

50 years later, SNAP proves its continuing vitality | Opinion | McClatchy DC

Even as SNAP policies and procedures change with the times, the program’s core mission remains the same. When the Food Stamp Act was passed in 1964, it aimed to provide better nutrition to low-income households while benefiting our agricultural economy. Fifty years later, research shows SNAP is still doing just that.

For example, SNAP benefits boost the economy by creating markets, and spurring economic growth and jobs in urban and rural communities at grocers, superstores, farmers’ markets, military commissaries, manufacturers and farms. And because SNAP benefits are so urgently needed, they are spent quickly – 97 percent of benefits are redeemed within the month of issuance – and therefore have great positive economic effects. Moody’s Analytics and USDA estimate that the economic growth impact of SNAP ranges from $1.73 to $1.79 per $1 of SNAP benefits.

“Leapsheeping Lambs” by Roeselien RaimondOne component of SNAP that needs to change and hasn’t is the amount of the monthly benefit allotment. While we know the program is capable of reducing food insecurity, improving the health and well-being of recipients, and ultimately saving taxpayer dollars on avoided healthcare costs, it could work much better. Current benefits are based on assumptions developed in the 1930s for emergency diets. That plan is now woefully outmoded on every front from nutrition to practicality. Multiple studies, including the USDA’s own analysis of a recent (temporary) boost in benefits, show the value of a healthier allotment.

OSheep at Stanton Drew by elaine's life in images on Flickrver the course of any 50-year period, change is inevitable. Since August 1964, SNAP’s strength has been recognizing and responding to those changes. Today, the program’s mission is as necessary as it was 50 years ago: providing relevant, vital help to boost nutrition, economic security and health among seniors, children, people with disabilities, and unemployed or low-income working families. This is an anniversary worth celebrating.

Black Agenda Report is out, and here is their coverage of the “events” at Ferguson | Black Agenda Report

bc9ea1ec82f69b079338d510cc7d8751Did y’all see the latest in ironic pro-gun nut death by gun shot? DEATH BY MISADVENTURE | Gin and Tacos

On Tuesday a 39 year old firearms instructor was fatally shot near Kingman, AZ when the nine year-old girl he was instructing on the use of an Uzi submachine gun lost control of it…while it was on full automatic. This resolves once and for all the question of whether it is a good idea to give a nine year old girl who appears in the linked video to weigh about 20 pounds (note: the video shows only the events leading up to the fatal incident, but does not include the incident itself) a submachine gun set on full auto. The facility, according to the Las Vegas Review Journal, caters to the vacationing yahoo crowd:a8f7be7a6c29bdbc291eb3f61896b6df

KINGMAN, Ariz. — An instructor who was shot by a 9-year-old girl who fired an Uzi at a northwestern Arizona shooting range died Monday night at University Medical Center in Las Vegas.

The girl fired the weapon at the outdoor range that caters to heavy tourism traffic along U.S. Highway 93 between Las Vegas and the Grand Canyon Skywalk.

Highway signage and Internet advertising beckons visitors to stop in, fire a machine gun and enjoy a meal at the Bullets and Burgers enterprise at the Last Stop, about 25 miles south of Las Vegas.

The instructor had, among others, the following hilarious pro-gun images posted on his Facebook wall (h/t Balloon Juice)

a5f4ebc59149f626d77d94a1c1c14bb4Go to the link to see the images and commentary that this man had posted on his wall. It is the typical shit…

What about a look at what makes Houston…colorful? Immigrants reshape Houston, America’s most diverse metropolis | Al Jazeera America

In the past 20 years, Houston — that most Texan of Texan cities — has come to look more and more like the taxi drivers. Between 1990 and 2010, Greater Houston added more than 2.2 million people (PDF) and now boasts a population of more than 6 million (the city proper has 2.2 million residents). The metropolitan area has eclipsed New York and Los Angeles to become the most racially and ethnically diverse in the United States.

4240f24bd326893a797d4327d5d943e9A joint report published last year by the Kinder Institute for Urban Research and the Hobby Center for the Study of Texas (PDF) found that Greater Houston scores highest on the Entropy Index, which measures diversity according to the presence and relative proportions of the four major racial groups (white, black, Hispanic and Asian). All five Houston counties have become more diverse over the past two decades, with increased numbers of Hispanics (from 21 to 35 percent) and Asians (from 3.4 to 6.5 percent), a stable population of blacks (about 17 percent) and a decrease in whites or “Anglos” (from over 50 to under 40 percent), though rates of residential segregation remain high.

Oh boy, it is really getting late…here are the rest in real quick dump format:

A lamb jumping over a trough, 1950Video shows police shot Ohio man ‘on sight’ as he leaned on toy gun in Walmart, attorney says

Dueling demands in Walmart shooting case | WDTN

Scarlett Johansson designs shirt for Planned Parenthood | TheHill

Archaeologists Discover 15 Previously Unknown Monuments Buried Around Stonehenge

Jon Stewart Goes After Fox in Powerful Ferguson Monologue | Mediaite

ec7c81f2b4f070513900f2313f8e5f3a– Another Ferguson? Young Black Man Shot In Chest With Hands Cuffed Behind Back. Police Say Suicide.

The Emmys Censored the Punchline of That Last Robin Williams Bit

Ferguson Police Officer Justin Cosma Hog-Tied And Injured A Young Child, Lawsuit Alleges

50 Shades of Grey: Harmful to Your Health? | Care2 Causes

It’s being hailed as a “provocative new study” worthy of Christian Grey himself — a group of researchers have just published an article in Journal of Women’s Health claiming that women who read “50 Shades of Grey” are at a higher risk for domestic abuse, disordered eating, a high number of sexual partners and even binge drinking. But don’t throw your romance novel to the curb just yet: The study is another example of the good old “correlation does not equal causation” trope.

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During the study, a group of scientists surveyed 655 18-to-24-year-old women online, a third of whom had read some or all of the ’50 Shades’ series. They asked them questions about their personal sexual practices, their experiences of partner victimization such as sexual and psychological abuse, and binge drinking. When they adjusted their findings for age and race, researchers learned that women who had read at least the first book in the series were more likely to report partner victimization, cyberstalking, fasting and using diet aids. 5b03d93e5435018f1fdedd169a22f7caWomen who had read all three books in the series were also more likely to report having five or more sexual partners in their lifetime. Their conclusion? There is an association between reading the series and negative health outcomes for women.

At the Guardian: The 100 best novels: an introduction | Books | The Observer

They are at week 49: The 100 best novels: No 49 – Gentlemen Prefer Blondes by Anita Loos (1925) | Books | The Observer

You can see the past weeks here: The 100 best novels | Books | The Guardian

A border collie herding sheep at the Rockefeller Center, 1948. Photo for LIFE magazine by George Silk.Now for the article that explains the title of this post: BBC News – ‘Two simple rules’ explain sheepdog behaviour

The relationship between a shepherd and his sheepdog has always seemed almost magical, but scientists now say it can be explained by two simple rules.

Researchers have used GPS data to reveal the mathematical secrets of how sheepdogs do their job.

The new model helps to explain why one shepherd and a single dog can herd an unruly flock of more than 100 sheep.

It could be used to help develop “shepherd robots”, for controlling crowds or cleaning up an oil spill.ce2d03bff1e703b2b3fce681272fc1ea

The first rule: The sheepdog learns how to make the sheep come together in a flock. The second rule: Whenever the sheep are in a tightly knit group, the dog pushes them forwards.

NERC fellow Dr Andrew King of Swansea University helped to design backpacks fitted with highly accurate GPS technology. These trackers were attached to a flock of sheep and a sheepdog.

“What’s so interesting about this is how simple the rules are,” Dr King told the BBC.

“At the beginning we had lots of different ideas. We started out looking from a birds eye view, but then we realised we needed to see what the dog sees. It sees white, fluffy things. If there are gaps between them or the gaps get bigger, the dogs needs to bring them together.”

Sheep Bridge by Mountain Mike on FlickrAccording to Dr King, sheepdogs are making the most of the “selfish herd theory” to bring the animals close together and move them where they want.

“One of the things that sheep are really good at is responding to a threat by working with their neighbours. It’s the selfish herd theory: put something between the threat and you. Individuals try to minimise the chance of anything happening to them, so they move towards the centre of a group.”

A colleague, Dr Daniel Strombom from Uppsala University in Sweden, used the GPS data from the collars to develop computer simulations. This enabled them to develop a mathematical shepherding model.

The algorithm displays the same weaving pattern exhibited by sheepdogs. It helps to solve what has been called the ‘the shepherding problem': how one agent can control a large number of unwilling agents.

John Hooper. The Shepherd, 1982.The research was published in Journal of the Royal Society Interface.

Read the rest at the link…and how they are working to use this information in other ways.

This made me look for a couple of more sheepy links:

Shrek the runaway sheep is a shear celebrity – Telegraph

29 Apr 2004

Shrek, the New Zealand merino sheep which spent the last six years on the run from his owners, finally had his long-postponed encounter with a pair of shears last night.

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Shrek the sheep is shown before, during and after being sheared

 

The woolly creature was shorn of his 15-inch long, 59lb fleece during a live television broadcast.

Viewers around the country watched eagerly to see the wool carefully snipped away by a former world champion shearer, Peter Casserly.

Despite his years as a hermit, Shrek was as meek as a lamb and co-operated fully.

“He is probably looking forward to getting this lot off,” Mr Casserly said confidently as he got to work.

 

And from 2012, Shepherds around the world – in pictures | World news | theguardian.com

They used to be an important part of the global economy but with the increase of estates the need for shepherds has declined. However, the tradition does still exist in many parts of the world

 

That one is just a gallery…so go and enjoy it.

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Sorry this is so damn late!

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Breaking… Anthony Weiner to Resign Today

Rep. Anthony Weiner (D-NY)

From The New York Times:

Representative Anthony D. Weiner has told friends that he plans to resign his seat after coming under growing pressure from his Democratic colleagues to leave the House, said a person told of Mr. Weiner’s plans….

The news comes as Democratic leaders prepared to hold a meeting on Thursday to discuss whether to strip the 46-year-old Congressman of his committee assignments, a blow which would severely damage his effectiveness.

Mr. Weiner, a Democrat, came to the conclusion that he could no longer serve after having long discussions with his wife, Huma Abedin, when she returned home on Tuesday after traveling abroad with her boss, Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton.

I still don’t understand why he should resign if David Vitter, Larry Craig, and Charlie Rangel weren’t forced to quit. The only way I can explain it is that Democrats are wimps and they are afraid of anyone who is willing to stand up to President Barack Obama (R-Wall Street).


Tuesday News Break

WTF?! A missle launch off the coast of California and no one admits knowing where it came from? Who is running this country? Oh yeah, an inexperienced, clueless guy who split the scene right after his party’s disastrous showing in the midterm elections. Hey, we need some answers here.

The video was captured by KCBS in San Diego last night.

A mysterious missile launch off the southern California coast was caught on video Monday evening by a KCBS news helicopter.

The spectacular contrail could easily be seen up in Los Angeles, but who launched this missile and why, remain a mystery for now….

A Navy spokesperson tells News 8, this wasn’t its missile. He said there was no Navy activity reported in that part of the region.

On Friday, November 5, Vandenberg Air Force Base launched a Delta II rocket, carrying the Thales Alenia Space-Italia COSMO SkyMed satellite, but a sergeant at the base tells News 8, there have been no launches since then.

Some speculation from conservative blog Hot Air here They link to Danger Room:

Someone semingly launched a mysterious missile 35 miles off of the California coast last night — just west of Los Angeles and north of Catalina Island. But anyone in the military knows who did it, or what the hell the thing was, they haven’t told me yet.

“We’ve checked and confirmed — this is not associated with any Navy operations,” says sea service spokesman Lt. Myers Vasquez. Who knows, the thing might only look like a missile – but turn out to be something else.

“Several different offices are looking into it,” says Anthony Roake, a spokesman for Air Force Space Command. “I’m reaching blanks with the folks I’ve talked to.” U.S. Strategic Command, Air Force Global Strike Command, the and Missile Defense Agency sources are similarly stumped.

In an odd statement, U.S. Northern Command says it’s “unable to provide specific details… [but] can confirm that there is no threat to our nation, and from all indications this was not a launch by a foreign military.”

What the heck is going on here? Via an update to the Danger Room post, naval analyst Raymond Pritchett says the lack of information provided by the government is a security risk in itself.

When someone makes an unannounced launch what looks to be a ballistic missile 35 miles from the nations second largest city (at sea in international waters), and 18 hours later NORAD still doesn’t have any answers at all – that complete lack of information represents a credible threat to national security. If NORAD can’t answer the first and last question, then I believe it is time to question every single penny of ballistic missile defense funding in the defense budget. NORTHCOM needs to start talking about what they do know, rather than leaving the focus on what they don’t know.

If this missile was launched at sea, was it launched from a ship or sub? If it wasn’t our ship or sub, then whose ship or sub was it? Did anyone cross-reference the launch with public AIS logs from the port of Los Angeles yet? How many dozens of times have we had someone give Congressional testimony regarding the scenario where a non-state actor launches a short ranged ballistic missile from a ship off the coast?

I raise that last point to note, if the mystery missile didn’t come from our military, you have to start looking for alternatives… and most of those alternatives are a threat to national security.

Any ideas?

Here is a less surprising story from the Obama Times: No Charges in Destruction of C.I.A. Interrogation Tapes
Read the rest of this entry »


Clinton would beat Obama by 20 points according to poll

Okay, it’s a Newsmax poll, but in conjunction with Survey USA:

Hillary Clinton would trounce fellow Democrat President Barack Obama by a 20-percentage-point margin in a head-to-head race for the presidency, according to a Newsmax/SurveyUSA poll conducted after Tuesday’s midterm elections….

The survey of 1,000 registered voters was conducted Nov. 3-4, after Republicans won the House and gained six seats in the Senate — results widely interpreted as a rejection of Obama and raising questions about whom the Democrats might field as a candidate in 2012.

In the poll, respondents were asked: “If there were an election for president of the United States today, and the only two names on the ballot were Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, who would you vote for?”

The poll found that overall, 60 percent of respondents chose Secretary of State Clinton, while 40 percent chose Obama.

Interesting.

UPDATE: BTD on what could have been: HOLC


Tim Geithner: “Bankers’ poodle, Obama’s pet” — Andrew Cockburn

Only one of these people is still on Obama's economic team

In the comments on the Sunday links thread, we were discussing the shortage of leftist intellectuals these days, and then coincidentally I came across this piece at Counterpunch by Andrew Cockburn, who is a long-time nonconforming leftist like Noam Chomsky. In this recent article, he claims to be breaking some inside info about the recent shakeup on Obama’s economic team.

If Barack Obama needed any help in guiding the Democratic Party over the cliff he certainly got it from Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner. Voters have told pollsters that the state of the economy, their own in particular, was their principle concern. Though impelled by the specter of unemployment and homelessness, the image of Geithner, toady to the bankers, can only have encouraged them in their fury. A sensible president would therefore already be running out the plank prior to giving this disastrous financial overseer an encouraging shove between the shoulders. But in this case, we may not be that lucky. CounterPunch can reveal the crucial role played in these matters by a group close to the President but unknown to the outside world.

A knowledgeable insider told Cockburn that despite Larry Summers’ reputation as a corporate tool,

“Larry has some idea that there is more to the economy than just the welfare of large banks,” this official suggests. “He did push for a larger stimulus and more jobs programs, for example. Tim just cares about banks.”

Cockburn claims that Summers’ firing was prompted by a little-known group of rich African Americans who dislike Summers because of his conflicts with Cornel West when Summers was president of Harvard. After a long dispute between the two, West left Harvard to join the Princeton faculty.

So who are the people in this group that has so much influence on Obama?

“These are the people Obama likes to hang out with. He plays poker with them, and takes their advice on financial matters” a former White House official told me. “They hate Summers for one simple reason: they think he’s a racist. They have never forgiven him for Cornel West [the eminent black scholar contemptuously ejected from Harvard by Summers when the latter was President of the university.]”

According to Cockburn, one of these influential men is George W. Hayward, a hedge fund executive who “has led Obama financially astray in the past.”

While Haywood and his pals were dissing Summers, Obama had come to actually like Geithner. Who knows why? Perhaps the life-long financial bureaucrat is good at explaining financial arcana to the innumerate chief executive, or maybe he is just adept at flattery. In any event, the relationship goes back some way. “Obama decided on Geithner for his Treasury Secretary in August 2008,” one former Treasury official told me, “probably at the urging of Mike Froman, acting on behalf of Rubin, Weill and Prince.”

Hmmm…I’d love to know who Haywood’s “pals” are. Maybe we can figure something out from that Muckety chart, linked above–or maybe Dakinikat knows something?

There is one more interesting tidbit in this gossipy article:

Once installed in the Treasury Secretary’s commodious office, Geithner’s first public address panicked the market into a 700 drop within ten minutes of his opening his mouth – even though he was announcing another bank bailout. Though Rahm Emanuel reportedly insisted thereafter that all of the Treasury Secretary’s announcements be cleared with him, the bond with Obama was unaffected. Perhaps, at this late date, the hapless president may be realizing that this was a mistake.

I wonder if Timmy was displacing Rahm in Obama’s affections too?

Discuss, or use this as an open thread if you wish.


Live Blog: Many ?!*%!? Returns!

I just got home, and Dakinikat is still fighting tooth and nail with her Blackberry, so here’s thread to talk about the election results in your area. Please let us know what’s happening out there.

I found this piece in the Wall Street Journal–don’t know how reliable it is: Democratic Coalition Crumbles, Exit Polls Say.

Amid deep pessimism about the economy, the coalition of voters that gave Democrats control of Congress in 2006 appears to have fractured.

Preliminary exit polls showed that the party lost ground to Republicans in Tuesday’s midterm elections among women, middle-income workers, whites, seniors and independent voters.

Driving the shift: broad anxiety over the economy, as well as skepticism of big government and opposition to signature Democratic Party policy achievements, such as President Barack Obama’s economic-stimulus package and the health-care overhaul.

The Dems have lost women, as we were expecting:

In 2006, when Democrats took control of the House, the party held a 12-point advantage among women, exit polls that year showed. That lead now appears to have been all but erased.

The shift appears to be even larger among white women. The parties were evenly divided four years ago among white women, but on Tuesday a decisive majority of that group went for the GOP.

And the old folks have dumped the Dems also, according to the article. Read it and weep.

From David Dayen at FDL: Early Exits Look In Line With Polling. Dayen links to an AP story, I won’t use the link, but here’s an excerpt:

Women — who typically lean Democratic and are vital to the party’s fortunes — split their House votes, according to preliminary exit poll results. Men favored Republican candidates.

The tea party made a splash in its first election. About four out of 10 voters endorsed the movement. While a majority of voters said the tea party was not a factor in their House vote, those who did use their ballots to send a message about the tea party were slightly more likely to say they were signaling support of tea partiers than opposition to the movement.

In contrast, voters were more likely to say they were casting votes to express opposition to Obama than to support him. Six out of 10 independent voters disapproved of the job he’s doing.

Voters overall didn’t hold a favorable view of either the Republican or Democratic parties. Overwhelmingly, people at the polls were dissatisfied with the way the federal government is working, and a fourth said they’re angry about it.

I hear Rand Paul won already, and Dan Coates has won in Indiana (my mom will not be happy). What are you all hearing? I’ll add more links as I find them.


Tuesday Reads

Good Morning!!

I’m doing a little surfing for Dakinikat because she’s technologically challenged at the moment.  She’s got a fried hard drive, an ancient computer, and a messed-up Blackberry to work with.   And she’s got a big presentation to make today.  Yikes!

Finally, election day has arrived and all the experts are predicting huge losses for the Democrats.  The predictions are so bad, that I almost wonder if we’re being set up to be surprised if the worst doesn’t happen.  Today pollster Charlie Cook named eleven more House Democrats who may well lose their seats.

On Monday, Cook announced that he was shifting four Democratic-held seats from the “Toss Up” category into the “Lean Republican” category – including incumbent Reps. Dina Titus of Nevada, Harry Teague of New Mexico and Frank Kratovil of Maryland – freshmen who have been high on the GOP target list practically since they arrived in Washington.

Cook also placed the Arkansas 1st District seat currently held by retiring Democratic Rep. Marion Berry, where Democrat Chad Causey is running against Republican Rick Crawford, into the “Lean Republican” field.

The handicapper now lists 29 seats currently held by Democrats in the “Lean Republican” or “Likely Republican” categories. Republicans need to seize at least 39 Democratic-held seats in order to win control of the House.

Cook is predicting losses of 50 to 60 Democratic seats in the House. In the Senate, Cook predicts gains for Republicans of 6 to 8 seats.

While it is becoming increasingly likely that Republicans will hold all 18 of its own seats, Democrats’ prospects in three of their 19 seats have improved in recent days. Sens. Barbara Boxer in California and Patty Murray in Washington now appear to be headed for re-election, albeit by small margins. In the special election in West Virginia, Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin now holds an advantage. Currently there are 57 Democrats, two independents that caucus with Democrats, and 41 Republican Senators. Post-election, Republicans could hold between 47 and 49 seats to 51 to 53 seats for Democrats. This new outlook means that the odds of Republicans winning a majority in the Senate are now non-existent.

Of course, from a liberal’s point of view it won’t matter all that much, since the Senate seems to give the Republicans everything they want anyway. I have to admit that a part of me will be celebrating if Harry Reid loses–even though everything I read about Sharron Angle gives me the heebee jeebees. According to the Washington Post that race is going to go down to the wire.

Cook also predicts gains of 6 to 8 governorships for the Republicans. I sincerely hope Massachusetts won’t be one of the ones they win–even though I’m not at all thrilled with Deval Patrick.

Just to be ornery, I guess, Nate Silver has dreamed up a scenario in which the Dems can still hold onto the House. It’s pretty far-fetched–but go read it and tell me what you think.

Anyway, we won’t have long to wait until we know how bad the Republican tsunami will be. We’ll be following the results here at Sky Dancing tonight.

In a setback to hopes for the repeal of DADT, the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals has ruled that the discriminatory policy will continue for now.

A federal judge in California, Virginia A. Phillips, ruled on Sept. 9 that the “don’t ask, don’t tell” law violated the equal protection and First Amendment rights of service members, and wrote that it had a “direct and deleterious effect” on the armed services. On Oct. 12, she ordered the military to stop enforcing the law nationwide.

The Defense Department asked the United States Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit to allow the status quo to continue as the case made its way through the courts. It has narrowed its own process for dismissing openly gay people under the policy. [....]

In the order, Judges Diarmuid F. O’Scannlain and Stephen S. Trott wrote that they were expressing no opinion on the eventual outcome of the case. But they said the government’s request to block Judge Phillips’s injunction should be granted out of deference to the judgment of Congress and the military, and in light of the fact that decisions by four other federal circuit courts finding the law not unconstitutional were “arguably at odds” with Judge Phillips’s rulings.

I really don’t see how a law that discriminates on the basis of sexual orientation could be constitutional. It’s a shame we can’t just get rid of the thing rather than go on wrangling about it while people’s careers are destroyed. Sigh….

Glenn Greenwald has a great piece up about the latest terrorist scare. Why do these always happen right before an election, I wonder?

Yesterday, The New York Times reported that “evidence was mounting” that Al Qaeda and Anwar al-Awlaki–the American citizen that President Obama has targeted for assassination without benefit of probable cause or a trial–were behind the “attempted attacks.”

But today, the NYT wasn’t as definite:

American and Yemeni officials still have little hard evidence about who was involved in the thwarted attack. . . . As for who was behind the plot, evidence remains elusive, though officials believe the bombs bear the hallmarks of Al Qaeda in Yemen’s top bomb maker.

Sorry, but I don’t buy anything the government has to say about terrorism anymore. I’ll believe it when I see it. Anyway, here’s Greenwald’s take:

The reality, as today’s version of the NYT makes clear, is that the U.S. has no idea who is responsible for sending these bombs. So in the dark are they that Homeland Security actually blamed two Yemeni schools that don’t even seem to exist, with the only one remotely similar to it being one sponsored by the State Department. But no matter: within a very short time of the attempted attack’s becoming public, U.S. government officials fanned out to anonymously pin the blame on Anwar Awlaki as the Mastermind, and newspapers then dutifully printed what they were told, even though nobody had any idea whether that was actually true. But when you’re trying to justify the presidential seizure of the power to assassinate your own citizens without a shred of due process, what matters is ratcheting up fear and hatred levels against your targets, not evidence or rationality. Just scream TERRORIST! enough times and maybe everyone will forget how tyrannical is your conduct.

To its credit, even the NYT article originally announcing the administration’s accusations that “evidence is mounting” of Awlaki’s culpability stated: “they did not present proof of Mr. Awlaki’s involvement.” How surprising. That same deficiency is true of the general accusation that Awlaki is involved in Terrorist plots as opposed to merely exercising his clear First Amendment right to advocate the justifiability of anti-American violence in retaliation for the violence Americans bring to the Muslim world. But that complete lack of evidence doesn’t deter huge numbers of people from running around proclaiming Awlaki to be a Terrorist and cheering for the presidentially-decreed death penalty based solely on unchecked government pronouncements, so it’s unlikely that the lack of evidence in this case will deter his being widely blamed as the Mastermind for this attack either.

Since I’m writing this post, I’m going to throw in a little sports news. First, the San Francisco Giants have won the World Series. As long as the Red Sox are out of it, I’ll take that result. From NBC Sports: Who are these guys?

Willie Mays never won a World Series in San Francisco. Neither did Willie McCovey. Or Orlando Cepeda. Or Barry Bonds. Or Juan Marichal or Gaylord Perry. Hall of Famers? The San Francisco Giants have had many. But world championships? None.

Before tonight, anyway. Before a lineup full of role players and aging veterans — and one rookie who may one day join the immortals in Giants history — beat the odds in beating the Phillies and the Rangers and now stand as champions of the baseball world.

Good for the Giants. And another curse falls by the wayside. Perhaps the baseball gods have finally forgiven the Giants for moving out of New York.

And in another strange sports story, Wide Receiver Randy Moss, who was recently traded to the Minnesota Vikings from the New England Patriots, has now been waived by the Vikings after Moss shot off his mouth after the Pats-Vikings game on Sunday.

Moss, who cost the Vikings a third-round draft pick, had only one catch for eight yards against the Patriots on Sunday. In four games for the Vikings, he had 13 catches for 174 yards and two touchdowns. Moss, who was fined $25,000 last week for failing to cooperate with the media and make himself regularly available for interviews, stepped to the lectern after the Patriots game but announced he wouldn’t take any questions. He repeatedly expressed admiration for Patriots Coach Bill Belichick and his former team and criticized the Vikings for not taking enough of his game-planning advice.

The Pats got rid of Moss because all he did was whine about not having a contract for 2011. Then he comes back to New England and goes on a tirade about Vikings coaches and how much he misses the Pats. What a crazed basket case this guy is. Some Pats fans actually want him back. I sure don’t.

OK, I know probably no one else is interested in that story but me. So what news stories and blog posts do you recommend this morning? I look forward to following your links.